[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I always go back to this for a reminder how difficult it is for snow to arrive 

  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Coopsy said:

Hey Mick, how's things?

Yeah good when I get back there always have good memories of the numerous snow events when others had nothing.

I think BBH will see a covering by Tuesday morning but it feels in my gut it'll be a West based event more due to wind direction 

yep, i think it will miss me here in SE18, but as i am half a mile from the thames, if a steamer does brew i might get a few flakes here

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

PHEW!!! thats a relief 

London Tube strikes called off as more pay talks planned

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Little or no service was expected on London Underground until Friday morning.

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Surprised to see some SE bashing and p!ss taking about possible snow tomorrow elsewhere. At the end of the day I'm happy for anyone who might experience snow as its rare as non corrupt politicians these days.

It's an event tomorrow as there's a chance of snow and a chance of settling snow for some.

Who wouldn't get excited for that on a site where 90% of people are hunting for snow  

Still looks like anything before Monday night is a bonus with the chance of some snow for heaviliy populated areas.

And as experience tells us sometimes it surprises us all with heavy snow and sometimes it doesn't. That's the exciting bit (and admittedly disappointing) if it doesn't work out).

 

hello coops, how's bluebell hill these days? 

seen this???

Snow showers for parts of Southern England Monday as cold easterly winds dig in

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A rather cold start to the new week, with raw easterly wind in the south blowing in some snow showers on Monday, bringing a slight covering perhaps in the southeast. The rest of the week will be mostly dry, less cold...

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Its weird as in the late 90s and early 00s your area often had several snowfalls that missed anywhere Strood Westwards quite often I remember this occurring as my dad lives in Dartford where I went to achool my aunty near you across the Medway. But about the last 15-18 years ive noticed it hardly ever happens now!

I blame the models seems they drive the weather according to some in the model thread  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, 3cats said:

Good morning, whilst Mr 3 Cats heads out for a run and I sit here thinking about a 2nd coffee, I’ve just looked at the forecast for tomorrow here and we have snow showers most of the day at a 95% chance. Looking forward to trying to get home from London if that comes off! 

added to the tube strikes, it might be fun... not  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

as a glutton for punishment i have just posted in the model thread 

Quote

why oh why oh why are we still looking beyond 5 days for the supposed weather lets get the next 3 - 5 days agreed and then after that will come into scope. a typical example of looking too far ahead is that yesterdays weather was hardly mentioned in the model threads yet made national headlines...

 

lets see how many flames i get shot down by.... 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

why oh why oh why are we still looking beyond 5 days for the supposed weather lets get the next 3 - 5 days agreed and then after that will come into scope. a typical example of looking too far ahead is that yesterdays weather was hardly mentioned in the model threads yet made national headlines for flooding. where were the model posts concerning a day ahead for weather? i really do despair when people look too far in advance for what might happen according to a computer output. ho hum ...

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

just seen this on beeb site 

Quote

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued a cold weather alert for all of England and warned that temperatures are set to plummet in the coming days.

The Met Office has also warned drivers to be cautious of ice developing on roads, and said the chilly temperatures will be caused by high pressure building over the UK.

The UKHSA's alert says: "A brisk easterly wind developing across the south over the weekend will make it feel much colder, with the added wind chill.

"Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees below average, across much of the UK, especially overnight, with more widespread frosts than of late.

"Ice is likely to be an issue for many given the very wet ground in most areas. It is probable this cold spell may last well into the following week."

The warning comes into force at 09:00 on Saturday and expires at noon on 12 January.

seems it might get cold soon..... thought that's what winter did 

[deep low for southern england\east anglia]

45 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The Env Agency chart below is from yesterday. The issuing of  yellow/Amber warnings is closely tied between Env agencies and Met Office

Has that worked recently in terms of impacts seen by people over after Christmas, from Storms Gerrit and Henk, then yesterday evening?

There has been major disruption each time, the yellow rain warning applied from 12 noon til early hours of Friday from Cornwall to Norfolk. Perhaps the system is due an update with a more informative (yet not confusing) representation. That the yellow warning in Surrey at 1pm is not for the same conditions expected by 6pm so that people can make informed choices if the warnings/names are issued in time.

The first radar image shows 24 hour accumulation til 0930 this morning. Radar imagery does need some interpretation. There can be obstructions in the way of the beam (even some tall trees) and it blocks the outward range and recording. You can see some of the straight lines from one site (Chenies I think). So you almost have to fill in the gaps visually. Shannon is out again after an upgrade.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9866-understanding-weather-radar

It has also been very wet for eastern Aberdeenshire , with black ice causing problems on the A96 this morning

So is it a case that the science is there, the experts are good at their subject matter; however the administration side are not so good at giving adequate warnings and information with what is given to them? Seems to me that if the professional experts at the MO and EA are telling their respective agencies that there are potential risks, they are been ignored....

OK, here in London there was disruption from Henk which could have been warned about better. And yesterdays deluge was, well a lot of rain in a short period; but you are right in the point that perhaps more localised fluid warnings need to be considered with rolling updates as events move along. 

sorry if this is off topic.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

and still raining here in SE18, roads are flooded but idiots still think they can drive as if its bright, sunny, dry and there are no hazards to consider.  Grrr. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Cloud thickening here in London and rain started... looking like a damp evening ahead  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I think you have hit the nail on the head there, too much information can be both detrimental and obscuring in a wa3y 'you can't see the wood for the trees'

[#Storm Henk]

An update for the amber warning on Met O 

Quote

Updated: 13:21 (UTC) on Tue 2 Jan 2024

Reason for update

The warning area has been extended slightly southwards across southern England, whilst also trimmed away from parts of the southwest where winds have now peaked.

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

Oh heck, Henk

Good job it's not called 'chuck'   

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Amber Wind warning issued for North of the Thames 

Quote

 

A spell of very strong winds will affect parts of southwest England and south Wales late morning and early afternoon, then parts of southern England, the south Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and evening. Gusts of 70-80 mph are likely on exposed coasts in the west. Inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are more probable, but perhaps briefly 60-70 mph in one or two places.

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Odd that you are getting full snow symbols over that period. SE18, which is not a huge distance away from Medway Towns is just getting sleet symbols

[#Storm Henk]

Doh! I left my wheelie bin out this morning... 

Met Office giving an average of 35MPH gusts over next 12 hours for SE London. Given the amount of high rise buildings in London and the tunnelling effect they create i imagine the city will be quite blowy. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Yep, dark, mild and wet on first day back since Friday. 11.3 outside when i looked this morning before leaving for work at 0630. As for FI chase. well i have never held stock in anything past 5 days so am not taking notice of whats posted in there currently. Plus, my last venture in there led to deleted posts and messages from mods to me 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

pea sized hail here

hope it didn't pee on you

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

every day is a school day

hence why i posted a few days back that an abbreviation needs a fuller explanation the first time it is used and then after if it is used over again it is understood what it means

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

53 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

LLS

???

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

28 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I don't do that and I don't think most people in the model thread do that. It's just very interesting to look at the model trends as the data becomes more reliable and given teleconnection signals looking good and multiple days of means being similar, you can make a good 'guess' on the future because the signal is good. Yes some people take 1 run by its own but there's still some science in one run. 

just to add to my previous reply. i have seen the computer at the met off because i was one of the accreditors who was involved in its installation. strange as it seems, the world is not run by computers. we run them. and i mean no offence in any of my posts/replies. maths is maths, physics is physics, they will never change. all that will change is how their (the computers) output will be interpreted.   

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

18 minutes ago, Gowon said:

I heard there's a possibility of tornados in the South tonight. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I don't do that and I don't think most people in the model thread do that. It's just very interesting to look at the model trends as the data becomes more reliable and given teleconnection signals looking good and multiple days of means being similar, you can make a good 'guess' on the future because the signal is good. Yes some people take 1 run by its own but there's still some science in one run. 

and i never said you did, or mentioned anyones names. i am just venting my frustrations over what so many posters are thinking will happen in 8-10 days time. i have seen the supercomputer at the met, i am degree qualified in engineering, and deal with coding every day in my work. and i will never ever understand how people put their faith in a prediction based on input to a computer ... but perhaps thats going to change in the future generation as AI plays it's game.