Jo Farrow

Yes, there is a risk of high winds as the low clears off into the North Sea, puling NW gales along your coast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405947/Storm-forecasts-can-change-last-minute-warns-Michael-Fish.html Mr Fish, 69, who still records a weekly forecast for netweather.tv, said: “It is very early days, it is not yet exactly clear what’s going to happen.

Why might this storm be worse than a usual Autumn Storm? STING JETS There is the possibility for winds to reach severe gale/Storm force over land in a swathe to the south of the Low centre. This may happen over the UK on Monday After the 1987 storm, forecasting came on leaps and bounds, mainly due to Satellite data and one area of discovery was Sting Jets. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=9957 (see video) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet (see PDF at end) This is what can cause the intense damage

String Jet?

At least the Mirror says Hurricane strength winds, not an actual hurricane

Mike doesn't mind, you're right though

the explainer on that is great

I've just put this link out http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=9957 which explains about Sting Jets and there is the potential for this to happen from this Monday storm and that would give the >100mph winds

I love the capital EXTENDS they can't keep the drama going from Killer megastorm into MO wx warning, haha so put extends in capitals

It's worth remembering that the actual centre of the low pressure is not where the strongest winds are. Due to various forces Coriolis, friction etc the southerly flank/side of this low will be where the most damaging gusts/winds will hit. That's why our watch highlights Channel coastal counties specifically - at the moment Have a look on Netweather Extra (if you subscribe) NMM 18 Winds gusts and Windspeed/direction (t+66 +69), you can see the quieter centre and red gusts to south

Isles of Scilly, if you ever got there, they wouldn't let you in calling it that

I asked on Twitter Met Office about the Warnings [*] Is there an agreed lead time on issuing a Red warning, so outside of that time it wouldn't be issued, it would be amber or Watch? [*]answer from MO@jofwx The difference between amber and red is in confidence of impacts we’re likely to see. We issue with as much lead time as possible ^AS

Netweather website should have something on it tomorrow (Sat ) about rainfall amounts

It could still be intensifying at that point

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19106-t84/

They are merging, the first northern one is visible already comign across Atlantic, the secondary (damaging winds) one start appearing off a wave in mid/west Atlantic at 00Z Sat , deepens faster, moves fast across UK, then bumps into other in North Sea, see T+84 Met Office chart (just off to get chart) low below 764

In Northern Scotland wheelie bins have a heavier plastic frame on, to weigh them down in the (omni-present) strong winds

I'd go with a flask - so you can make hot water before bed, and still have a cuppa in the morning

RED WARNINGs Met Office These have a short lead time, they can't be issued too early as many transport/council infrastructure procedures are set off by the issue of an Amber or red alert. There is still uncertainty with the details and a Watch gives the public a heads up, a Red warning, as it says, means TAKE ACTION now As these severe winds may come when most are asleep, and around the Monday morning rush hour, any preparations or early warnings have to be a good thing. No 100% in this game

What every happens at the end of this weekend into Monday, much of the UK is in for some very windy weather, what is the dangerous/exciting/scary bit is where/when/if the intense core of damaging winds comes off. So far the South Coast has looked most likely, but the MO are hinting at drawing the low further north, and as the Low clears into the North Sea, Monday morning there could be a vicious backlash in the NW winds as it clears the Wash

Just lovely M.O. "Chief forecaster Eddie Carroll added: “The storm is likely to intensify rapidly just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday. “People should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption. “People should keep up to date with and act on the advice in our forecasts and warnings as the situation develops. “This storm is more unusual, developing much closer to the UK and potentially tracking across the country while still in its most powerful phase"

THE CFS long range predicted it in April, it's my birthday on Monday and I looked at the chart for the 28th back in April Deep low over UK although it is late Oct, an autumn low or two is quite likely but that beats 45days

It's not about the DE being right, if you scream and shout about enough Autumn Lows , once in while one will be a real storm. Same for heatwave temp records, next snow storm etc. This could be an event into Monday and for forecasters and wild weather lovers it gives a bit of excitement

Me too! although I do't mind some exciting weather for Monday