[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

ECM Still has some snow in the south next weekend …

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

ECM looks similar to its 00z run so far (at least locally) not a bad thing though if it still has the end of the week snow

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Gem shows “sledges at the ready” next weekend

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Not sure why the panic re the metro update? Chance of snow and gusty winds end of the week followed by wintry showers then longer term it’s cold with snow especially north and east they aren’t going to stick their necks out with exact locations & words like disruptive and heavy just yet expect it to upgrade over the next few days if models stay onboard and ukmo joins the party, warnings would be issued early next week 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex  usually I’d be worried about the UKMO not being on side, but it’s shown itself to be very unreliable after the blizzard it showed yesterday and complete 360 today!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

For a sustainable cold spell GEM looks great! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Only decent op chart I can see now is the GEM which looks similar to last nights ECM, let’s hope models revert back to this ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

would be 10cm + widely by day 11!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Look at this temp anomaly in the states..always a good sign for us ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

That’s more Like it

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Think I need to move! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Wouldn’t worry about the placement of the cold / snow boundary for now. It will change loads, just have to hope the theme continues and gathers momentum. Anywhere in the uk could be in the centre of this in 10 days time

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Good end to ECM for midlands & North wales ….

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

One for south coast crew …. Probably end up in Spain

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Bank  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Not sure why all the doom and gloom I’m here today. Might not be deep cold and snow for all on the horizon,  but at least the chance of a cold spell with some snow in week 2 is increasing now…

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Let’s hope for the usual shift south

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Finally !! The chance of a few flurries ! Like gold dust this year !

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

39 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s been fascinating output viewing and this is from someone who has come as close to a channel runner in a long time.

 

However, bring on the next chase and if luck goes against us then I’d rather have a chance than look at flat pattern for months.

 

So close to something special for southern areas. Still a chance if a few flurries looking at UKV. For most this has been an other snowless cold spell. Let’s hope feb delivers at least 1 measurable snowfall for all 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

GFS says no away from far south east 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Areas north of the weds band get a few flurries Thursday 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Here’s another view of icon for midweek. Gets above m4 in the east and covers London and Essex up to beds and just scraping south cambs ..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of another 50 miles push North do you think?

It’s possible … but so Is a shift south again

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Certainly looking like the far south is back in the game midweek

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

And the north west of England 

Possibly but nose models have the main snow away from the populated areas eg north hit moors, peaks and Lake District. could see a dusting north Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield areas though