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Tim Bland

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just to set expectations ; I can’t see any models showing widespread snow and ice days over Christmas for the majority away from Scottish / welsh mountains. I’ve seen these “PV sinking south over the uk brining snowy conditions”  many times on the models over the years,  and usually it’s watered down and snow is limited away from usual high ground. 
     

    What we are seeing is a mainly north westerly flow (occasionally north) with a mix of rain and sleet showers for most and snow for high ground. Temps around 4-6c during the day for most.   IF we are lucky enough to get a low slipping further south and dragging in a northerly there’s a chance of some snow on the northern edge …

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tim Bland

    8 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

    Country file update - signs that we will be turning colder in the run up to Christmas.

    Sorry not model related but then again is related in terms of longer term pattern.

    “Colder” is what all models show that go that far…it has been 12-14c in some spots today…doesn’t necessarily mean cold enough for frost and snow though 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

    I think a lot of people need to lower their expectations on what charts are needed for snow.

    Who would have thought this chart here would be dropping settling snow down to just 50m in places..

    These awesome easterlies/ north easterlies with -15 uppers are as rare as a pork chop in a synagogue, all that is needed this time of year is -5 uppers and an atlantic system attacking with the right trajectory into the cold air! 

    Screenshot (377).png

    Worth noting that the majority of the population haven’t seen any snow this past week or so...Note “population” not land mass… So something more than recent Synoptics are required for most areas 

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