[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Sat night ECM…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

UKV is terrible at forecasting troughs it had no precipitation over the South West this morning. It's on the ICON, Arpege, WRF, GFS and GEM.

Would say it’s a done deal. WRF looks dry and Icon mainly south east? Hope ECM has it

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Confidence increasing for some sort of snow event Sunday now central England area.

Concerned at the lack of support from the high res models for this, eg UKV?….

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

That’s this mornings run I think 

Ahh can you post latest one ?  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Shame uKV isn’t on board for Sunday snow. Just patchy drizzle …

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just said to the Mrs “Fancy a short break to Snowdonia in a a week or so?”…..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GFs good for central and northern areas Sunday, rain in the south …I wouldn’t be surprised for this to end up further south though 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

This is a ms far north as the from gets on Monday, could be some snow on southern hills, esp moors of south west and Welsh hills  

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3 minutes ago, BremX said:

Not sure if this is allowed, but not sure this was modelled today for my area? I'll update if it actually starts snowing!

Just north of York at the moment so not out of the question 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The next batch of lows are all going to miss to the south by t0 aren't they?

Hopefully not a fan of cold rain ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But it might be back on the following one

Hopefully 50 miles south bang over St Evenage and St Albans

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Looks like Cambridge way to me.

True, on closer inspection I’d say the 10 is Cambridge and the 15 is St Neots / Huntingdon.  Probably a pointless conversation as it will be gone on the next run

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Oh yes i have!!5cms over my house!!i will take it

There’s 15cm in one spot. Looks like Peterborough way if it kept the theme it will keep moving the sweet spot around 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm you little tease you!!!

Seen this ?!!!! 

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ECM looks better for some Sat night. Is that random 15cm blob over Sheiky !!!!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

UKV just has plain rain for most Sat night / Sunday morn

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GFS at least delays the breakdown with some snow on leading edge 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GEM makes light work of pushing the Atlantic through Sunday night

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GFS similar to icon with a cm or 2 for some Sat night into Sunday morn 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Dusting for central southern parts and some parts of wales / Scotland Sat night perhaps 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Sorry to be the Grinch but isn’t it hilarious how tv news are headlining ‘up to 2cm in parts of Scotland’. I’ve scoured all the charts and there’s no snow for 95% of the population. Tomorrow it’s rain and drizzle and by Sunday it’s rain for most. This is a a couple of days of frosts not a severe cold spell as some people would have you believe !  High res UKV for tomorrow and Sunday below. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

It’s like getting blood out of a stone getting snow in this country. This is 3am Sunday morning (coldest part of the day)

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GFS take on Sunday..looks a bit more promising so Midlands / north wales 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ICON following a few others with the trough moving through on Sunday - something to keep an eye on now, some snow opportunities there ️

 

Also quite interesting in the NH with the jet stream quite far south 

Shame it’s like ECM showing mainly rain and sleet with snow reserved for northern hills. Still time for upgrades though

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

ECM has rain for most with snow on hills Sunday