Tim Bland

I do feel for you guys! It always seems that Stevenage gets allot more than Hertford / Ware. I think as the band moves north you will see 5-10cm between midnight and 3am. Use this link and type in your location to keep tracks on it.. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ It appears dry over London but that is actualy sleet due to the city warming effect. Expect it to turn to snow in the city soon though.

I would guess the heaviest falls would be between 00z and 03z for our area. The astern extension of this will be more significant that the northern extent IMO so people NE of Herts may need some Prozac! Your time will come though!

Just seen the 18z and guess where the "sweet spot is?" Right over west Herts / South beds and up towards SW Cammbs. It has the precip moving about 50 miles NE then stalling before the low fills and fizzles out tommorow eve. It has precip over the whole SE all day tommorow with heavy showers comming in behind!

Maybe 15cm if you are lucky by 10am. there will be a dry spell (11-00) for our region before the heavier convective line pushes up in the early hrs.

Well Done TEITS You did call this very well. It is falling a good 50 miles further East than predicted even by the very latest model outputs. i expect some in somerset etc are very dissapointed as they rarely get anything down there and they where the "sweet spot" This has now shifted to west london / west Herts and Bucks. I doubt if it will continue moving east though what do you think TEITS?

you are currently positioned 10 miles east of where the low is curving round but I suspect the low will shift 50 miles further east in the next hour bringing you into the equation. There is a heavy band to the south going.to hit you / me at around 1030 / 11pm. If that fails join me with your sledge 10 miles west in Stevenage tommorow lol! I have about 2/3cm so far but its getting heavier by the minute. Who is gonna win Dan? Stevenage or Milton Keynes? Think you are winning at the mo lol!

you are currently positioned 10 miles east of where the low is curving round but I suspect the low will shift 50 miles further east in the next hour bringing you into the equation. There is a heavy band to the south going.to hit you / me at around 1030 / 11pm. If that fails join me with your sledge 10 miles west in Stevenage tommorow lol! I have about 2/3cm so far but its getting heavier by the minute,

If it hasn't started already then it will any min in Hertford. Expect heavy snow (5-10cm) mainly falling between 11pm and 1am.

I have a feeling looking at the radar sequence that anyone currently more than 30 miles east of the precipitation is unlikely to recieve more than 5cm from the main low. The main pulse through the home counties appears, according to the MetO radar, to be starting to pivot west, and I will suspect 2130-2220 is whern it will/should be hitting its northern / Eastern limits. I expect West Herts and south Beds will get around 15-20cm. With everything moving anti-clockwise around the surface depression the same areas will continue to see the snow for several hours. After 2200 will be interesting to see if the low shifts any further east before slipping and decaying SW. There is a seperate line that will move NE giving most parts 5cm and this line culd stall in the early hrs giving larger totals to the lucky spots. The decaying low will also drift over most parts tommorow and merge with the squall line. Those who feel hard done by remember that most models agree on an E/NE developing by Thurs so plenty more time to see a good covering over the next 10 days. Dan - If you are reading, get on here and update the radar situation lol!

IMO this cold spell will be remarkable for its deep prolonged cold rather than snow. There has been lots of ramping re snow starting with last weeks event which was lots of rain and more recently tonight we where supposed to see an organised front moving south with 5cm and now it a few flurries, This was shown on models only last night and only downgraded at the last min. I expect to see a 2-3 day Easterly starting on Weds with most of the region having between 5-10cm by the weekend. The snow will mainly be in shower form so hit and miss, some lucky areas may have 15cm while others only 3cm. The feature comming south on Tues night could give 5cm more widely. I dont think we are going to see the deep 50cm drifts that some have been ramping up. On a positive note anything that does fall will last for a long time.

will those Easterlies bring the same precipitation areas that we saw on the 17th / 18th? If so then parts of the home counties and EA could be burried by next week! I'm currently in Oslo where it is -14 with 100cm of snow! It's amazing how they cope with it out here. They have hundreds of snow clearing machines working 24/7 to keep the city moving. Looking at the charts I think London will need some of this equipment next week! I am due to land on Weds eve at Luton but I expect I could be delayed!

I was a bit dissapointed by the 18z until I saw the ensembles! The whole run IMO is fit for the bin! UKMO fax is very encouraging I would agree that south midlands is the bullseye at the moment but this can and probably will change over the comming days. Just seen the warning for Snow in Beds and Bucks tonight where did that come from?

This low will be placed 100m further north on one run and 100m further south on the next. There is little point in talking about exact locations for snow at this point. I'm happy that this run still shows great potential for new year and thats all that matters at the moment.

Not such a good run from 12z IMO. I can see allot of rain for the south and snow on the penines on Tues. I expect the next few frames will show this low pulling south and snow for all. After this I hope it will show a NE with snow showers for the usual spots.

Not sure where you got this from but the ensembles ; http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= Are in agreement for +5 upper air temps so it looks unlikely. IMO we will se a renewed block around the 3rd Jan and we will get a 5 day cold snap from that.

Agreed, enjoy it while you can folks! This could be the last flakes of 2009! Been looking at the charts for Weds night and it looks like rain will wash away the covering. Hate to rub it in but off to Leeds tommorow then off to Oslo until New years eve!

To all my fellow Herts lamp post watchers its good news! Temp dropped dramaticaly as the snow arrived! Dropped by 1.5c and now pure snow with the slush freezing!c

Sleet here now. Expecting snow if it gets heavier. Very marginal in this area now. Dont understand why Reading can get snow and Stevenage rain!?

Just got rain here in stevenage! and we are 110m above sea level so not sure why!? are temps going to drop in the next hr or so? If not I think its gane over for most away from the highest ground (which Hemmel is)

110m above sea level here in stevenage and its been sleety Rain for a few hours now! would very much doubt any measureable snow to fall now except the tops of the chiltens IMO. Hate to sound like a mild ramper but just been looking at the charts for Weds night and it looks like rain for almost the whole region.

A few snow showers are possible in the north west of the region from the NW and E / SE London may see a few more this evening according to the BBC graphics. Kent / Sussex may see some on Tuesday due to low pressure near to the south. After Weds is still up for grabs with almost a different scenario from each model including this from UKMO http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif This would give heavy snow - 6in plus to much of the region away from the coasts and look at the date!!

I was out in London last night. Started sleeting at 1215 then turned to wet snow then to rain before petering out at 130ish. i was in covent garden then went to Kings Cross. Suprised no one else has mentioned this yet!! Would be a Christmas day to remember if the UKMO is correct! Should be an interestig countryfile forecast this morning! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif :lol: Can I have this for Christmas please Santa! Just thought, Its countryfile this morning! Wouldnt want to do that forecast with so many different options on the table. Will be a streesfull few days at the Meto as media will be hounding them with whether it will be a white christmas or not (along with the bookies)I think the models are struggling as this is such a unique situation for the UK

This just goes to show how localised things can be. I am 5-8 miles north of you and have 25cm similar ammounts to last Feb. Get up to stevenage!

Book it off work! I have and you will get more than me! You should have 10-15cm by Fri morning and a further 5cm through the day!