Tim Bland

Do people think that Hertfordshire will be in for Snow tonight? I think we are just on the Eastern side of the precipitation

Starting to rain mixed with sleet here in Stevenage at just over 100m ASL think I could see some snow tonight!?

BBC forecasts still playing things down. London forecast has a bit of sleet first thing around NW home counties then onto sleety showers Weds rain showers Thurs and clear blue skys on Fri.

Well said John. People on vairous threads talking about panik buying shovels and snow chains ready for the 12ft of snow. This is NOT shown on any model and NOT going to happen!! It is irresponsible of the posters as some less eduacated might belive it and start spreading it around work / friends / family etc and causing panick. I think we need to take a few days at a time. At the moment I am only lookind at the chance of snow on Tues night / Weds after then is subject to change. The only thing I would panic buy is a sledge if you live on high ground in the North East!

i think some people are getting a bit carried away! I would save your money on the snow chains lol. even if this run verified exactly as shown you wouldnt need snow chains for major routes in SE London!! I have been looking through the snow depth charts etc and the Max it shows for London area is 5cm! That is classed as a dusting in most European countries!

Latest BBC forecast now talking of sleety mix on Weds then dry and cloudy for Thurs / friday appart from the far north East. Seems to have downgraded since this morning CF forecast

Does anyone remember the M11 fiasco where drivers where stranded, I think it was around 2003. Does anyone know if the synoptics on Thurs / Fri are similar. If this 24hr Easterly occoured What sort of acumulations could be expected in the East?

Unlike many it seems I was dissapointed by that forecast. I remember the CF forecast from last Feb showing heavy widespread snow lasting for most of the week in the East, which is what we got. What that forecast showed was sleety showers over Eastern areas and he wasn't even bullish about that. The City forecasts showed dry and around 2/3c on Friday. In many parts of Europe in December that would be classed as just an average winters day. Coupled with the forecast for thursday on meto sight of "showers -wintry on hills on Thurs" I can't see what the hype is about!?

Excelent post Paul, thanks for sharing that. IMO us amateurs follow the GFS most closely purely because we have free access to it and the charts are interpreted for us into precip type and snow depth etc. I would much prefer NW to interpret the UKMO / ECM. I have a friend who is a meteorologist for Meteo group and she said she only looks at GFS occasionaly when there is a wobble with the ECM / UKMO. She also only looks at the Ensemble output from the GFS.

Looks cold enough for me North of the M4 especialy with any elevation. There is more factors than just surface temps. Low Dam, Low dew points, evap cooling etc :lol:

? Do you think Herts does well out of these set ups? I haven't lived here long?

Can't seem to get on TWO must be very heavy site traffic. They are Ramping big style over there. IMO next week is fairly nailed on now with sleety stuff on Mon / Tues (In East) and Snow showers from most areas to end the weeks. How heavy the showers are and if they merge to more prolinged snow is yet to be decided. IMO it won't be acurately forecastable until Tuesday at the earliest. Certainly charts to savour though!

Whats the WMC model? Do you think that second chart could possibly be a cold outlier lol!

To be fair the Metoffice produced that forecast in their morning meeting and this run has only just come out. We will not know their take on this run until tommorow. As we have seen allot recently their long term outlook can chop and change very dramaticaly within a day. I expect their forecast to be downgraded tommorow and more talk of colder weather rather than snow on the forecasts. Ask me again this time next week. Its just another possible outcome so who knows! Makes it more interesting though!

DHL just delievered my mamouth sledge!! Then I saw the ECM

I quite like this run so far, lots of longer term potential. low to the East startsing to slip south / south west over the UK. This will be better for snow prospects. Aftyer all there is no point IMO of having freeaing cold tems and drizzle!

First flakes appear in the SE on Sat night in this run then the coild backs off again until late on Tues when the wind Veers more Easterly picking up moisture from the north sea. Expect more widespread snow by Weds on this run

Are they adding anything to the Parallel run to make it more reliable or simply swapping the parralel to become the main output?

Others may correct me but I thought it was starting tommorow?

Oh dear what an awfull run The final kick in the goolies is +14c for Christmas eve with the anticyclonic gloom just a bad memory! Lets hope to wake up to better charts or the 1st dissapointment of the winter may have just happened

Looking ok to me up to +90 The pesky low in sw Greenland area has gone and HP stretching quite far north. Expecting a good run

So far 18z is a major downgrade......Only kidding!! My gut feeling is this will be a stonking run and more in line with the 12z ensemble mean.

If the easterly is sustained for long enough it will pile snow over most of the country. Due to a fiarly mild start the ssts in the north sea are quite warm so the cold air will pick up moisture and blow it all the way to Ireland. The east coas and North york moors etc could see up to 2 feet of snow but a couple of inches will still fall in the west

The only positive if this run came off would be a short lived major snowfall for areas north of m4 and south of pennines. Paralel shows a topler i'm afraid. Lets hope ECM keeps the hope alive or I may have prematurely purchased a sledge today lol!

There is no right or wrong just forecasts. All models vary and so do the ensembles. FI starts on Sunday at the moment. I am actualy supprised how bullish the Meto have been today I expected them to sit on the fence a bit longer. 12z has min of 8c in the SE on Tues night on the 06z it had a hard frost! I expect this to be on the warm side of the ensembles and who know what option the 18z will give us!?