Tim Bland

I drove through Chelmsford earlier and it was snowing and settling on grass / cars.

Looking at the current radar there seems to be more precip around than forecast. Do experts on here think that as the dew temps drop that there will be back edge snow? Do we need under cutting for this to occour?

First snow of the season now falling in Stevenage

Another breath taking run from the GFS. It is similar to the 12z up until monday when it will be mainly dry but very cold in the SE. To cut a long story short it keeps the cold right out to Christmas with a return North Easterly for the new year. This would be a cold spell to tell your grand children about, if this run came off put it that way. I know I put the cat amoungst the pidgeons earlier by playing this down against last febs snowfall. What I will say is although i dont believe the snow will be as deep, I do think that all areas will see at least 2" and it wont be as local this time. 18z shows snow cover for the whole of the uk on christmas day! Expect the precipitation to be 3hrs later than expected. It will hit North Cambs and Beds at 8am, South Herts / Essex around 11am south of a line from Dartford to west end by 3pm Night all!

Those who expect a repeat of Feb should watch this BBC forecast from countryfile (1st Feb) and then watch the N24 forecast in 10 mins. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=uzeZJUsT0UU The Meto / BBC where very confident of widespread heavy snow coming from a trough spreading well inland and boosted by convection (not reliant on). It was never forecast as "Showers". This went out on BBC on the Sun morning and correctly predicted heavy widespread snow starting 24hrs later. It also correctly predicted the other heavy widespread snow events that occoured during the week. There was also warnings out 3 days in advance for accumulations up to 30cm they are giving 5-10cm for this event. I may be proven wrong (and hope I am) but I doubt I'll watch a forecast like that tommorow morning will I? Frost set in around 5pm and has now melted which it wasn't forecst to do. May make things a bit more marginal for tommorow is temps are 2/3c higher than forecast!

I honestly respect TEITS and his expertise but he was suggesting it may be more severe than feb and many others agreed. My post is a way of us keeping things into perspective.

Those who expect a repeat of Feb should watch this BBC forecast from countryfile (1st Feb) and then watch the N24 forecast in 10 mins. The Meto / BBC where very confident of widespread heavy snow coming from a trough spreading well inland and boosted by convection (not reliant on). It was never forecast as "Showers". This went out on BBC on the Sun morning and correctly predicted heavy widespread snow starting 24hrs later. It also correctly predicted the other heavy widespread snow events that occoured during the week. There was also warnings out 3 days in advance for accumulations up to 30cm they are giving 5-10cm for this event. I may be proven wrong (and hope I am) but I doubt I'll watch a forecast like that tommorow morning will I?

I would seriously doubt if we get anything close to Feb! That was a once in a decade snowfall. I can remember many occasions when Severe weather warnings showed 80% risk of disruption and we only got a bit of sleet. I can remember the forecasts 3 days before the Feb event and they where talking about heavy persistent snow. This time the forecast is "Snow showers" and the warnings are for 5-10cms. Some lucky area will record a decent depth by Friday night but it just depends on the shower distribution. Seriously though guys don't expect a repeat of Feb and you woint be dissapointed

Latest forecast from Francis wilson is more on the money than the BBC in my opinion Watch it here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPIn-jdo24Q

He must have said at least a chance of covering! Don't tell me it was "A chance of some wintry showers!"

Couldn't bare it anymore either!! I'm sure someone will post it...unless it's "Wintry showers" lol

Yes I agree, but I was also alluding to the next few days with people talking about deep snow and this is not shown by other models. I think people just need to manage their expectations. IMO "Deep" snow is 6" plus and that is unlikely although not imposible during the next few days. I agree this could be a memorable snowy spell but the emphasis should be on COULD

Don't get get carried away yet people! There is still a chance we could get a dusting then it all being washed away after the weekend. UKMO is a major downgrade more in line with 06z. GFS has only just switched to using parralell so may be a few glitches in the system. Looking very positive for at least a few cm's by Friday but anything more than that is still up in the air! Don't panic buy your snowchains just yet! PS you can listn to BBC 3CR online at www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/playlive/bbc_three_counties_radio/

Chanel low now showing for Monday!! This will give the whole South a blizzard!! Hope that low doesnt head to far north!!

You have just posted a computerised interpretation of the 06z run. This is old news....Check the 12z!

I know it's not the most acurate but Precip charts are showing 24hrs of Snow from midday Sat! This will fall on what we already have from the previous 3 days!! This is a big upgrade for our area in terms of snow!

Might be different to the 1927 will probably be a heatwave by the 2127 lol

Alex Deacon BBC N24 @ 1927

BBC forecast now showing snow comming down from the north Weds evening "giving a covering in place" He also said possibility of disruption to end the week. I can't keep up!!

Think you are just to the SW of the front tonight I'm afraid. Plenty of opporunities to come though.

Have some sleet mix into the rain here already. Meteo group percip type on my iphone says sleet on the SE endge of the rainband already and shows snow in northern counties from 10pm onwards. I think the Chilterns around to Hemmel will do well and up to Milton Keynes / Bedford area.

I've got 4.9c in Broadwater. We could be in a prime position tommorow morning though! Dont forget the cold uppers will be spreading from the east and the Dews etc will fall away. i expect snow between 5am and 10am in Stevenage

I've made an attempt to diagram the potential for failure so that people in different parts of the SE region can understand what is going on in the other part. Sorry If I'm the only one being dense but what does that map represent?

I think we could be in a prime position. The best chance will be early hours of tommorow morning before it nudges away to our west. I believe you have a bit of altitude is St Albans as well so should see a slight covering. Lots more snow on the latest GFS for Weds and the showers are more potent for Thurs!