Tim Bland

CG strikes on Eastbourne cam

32c max (see bottom right) also GFS is very warm at the end for the South east with temps touching 30+

06z GFS has just a few mm of rain for the entire run in the SE. serious drought conditions coming for some if this continues!

Keep an eye on the channel …

Yes please

Not bad for nearly April …

This cold snap is over though. It was 2 days in the south which produced sleet for most and 5 days in the north with most falls reserved for high ground. It’s currently 8c in Leeds. What cold spell incoming ? Even model runs that do show any cold in FI are very short lived pulses? There are no runs showing a sustained ‘cold spell’ , certainly not ‘cold’ enough to deliver snow for most.

Only chance I can see for central and southern areas is Monday night into Tuesday

With mild air quickly chasing behind it looks like about 30 mins of snow before it turns to rain away from high ground and far north I’m afraid. UKV below

Well I wasn’t far off

Turned here IMG_4649.MOV

2 cold days next week on UKMO & only 1 day that could see wintriness further south

My guess is They put out a warning for ‘up to 5cm.’ and some places will get 1cm can’t see it lasts for that long and there’s not much high ground in the area where it’s heaviest ie Lincolnshire & Norfolk. Good news it’s that whatever does accumulate could last 24hrs this time

Warning for Sat looks like high ground or far north and mentions 200m

Thanks . On the precip type chart you can pick out the high ground (snow in pink) and low ground (grey sleet) a big part of the problem is that the ground temps were not low enough in advance. In December for example we had ice days before the snow. Models showing snow depths clearly failed to accurately account for ground / soil temps. Below was the scene yesterday in the south and I’m guessing it’s the same in the north (below about 120m asl) today.. I’d like to be in the Peak district or Pennines today though! IMG_4631.MOV

Still trying here… IMG_4631.MOV IMG_4630.MOV

Fair point. I did point out 3 times yesterday when total precip charts were posted as snow depths. Below is yesterdays 12z ECM snow depth for tomorrow morning. Many areas shown to have 5-15cm will have almost nothing and areas in the far south shown to have 3-5cm will definitely have 0. Just worth bearing in mind for those on lower ground further north tomorrow

Lots of southern and central areas were forecast a decent snow depth today / tonight, but measurable snow was limited / isolated. Models didn’t handle it well at all. Luton for example was forecast to have between 5 & 10cm right now depending on which model you looked at… it actually has 1cm . Hope tomorrow is better for northern members

That’s the ECM output and most outputs are similar. This isn’t a remarkable cold spell, even today was too marginal for snow to settle in central areas. Tomorrow is forecast up to 10c in central London and widely 8c+ in the south. Yes there will be deep snow for a while on high ground eg Peak District but nothing that unusual for late winter / early spring. Time will tell but I’m not seeing anything special cold wise I’d be interested to know in a weeks time what your mid day snow depths were and daily max temp was for your area ..On paper do you think it will be memorable / historic ?

Just to add some perspective.. almost all models have no accumulating snow for midlands south and in the north it’s high ground only after Friday. This is the ECM for your area next 10 days and most models are similar

Very temporary though back to average or slightly mild by midweek. Not seeing much in the way of proper snow south of midlands and even northern areas will struggle to see much away from high ground after tomorrow / Friday morning. This has been a decent snap for falling snow but nothing memorable imo

Similar up the road in St Evenage. Just hit the magic 0c though. Heavier precip spreading from west shortly should give a cm or so. Then looks more showery behind

Hopefully temps drop a degree or so as the sun goes down. 1.5c and DP 0.2c now IMG_4615.MOV

Trying it’s best to settle now just need heavier pulses. I’m about 110m asl though IMG_4615.MOV

Like this all day in St Evenage. Just a degree or so of fsettling Hope temps drop a bit and the heavier stuff settles. Will all be gone this time tomorrow though IMG_4607.MOV