KTtom

Lets hope EC continues with its reputation for day 10 charts, because this mornings is a shocker if its cold we're after..its not just our location look at the uppers to the east and north east

It certainly wont be something we'll be discussing this time next year i think the myth 'surprise features always crop up' can be put to bed now!..put it this way, i think next week will be far more memorable for a large swaythe of the country if for the wrong reasons..and no one forecst whats being modelled a couple weeks ago. Some sort of ridge forming to the north east is pretty likely for the following week pretty unanamous agreement, however the modelling of detail makes a massive difference in likely temperature, especially in Kuusamo where im going..the 18z and 00z gfs ops have a 20 c difference for 1st Feb with similar synoptics. Also worth remembering how there was good agreement for a substantial Greenland block until it came within t-144 for this week. Bit surprised with the GEM comment, looks like its just getting interesting to me

The problem with height rises to the east is if they dont migrate far enough north, with a section of deep vortex stationed over Greenland we often get stuck in no mans land with mild southerlies as per ECM. On a more seasonal note, woke to a decent snow shower here in W Wales which has left a dusting.

Same here up to now not even a frost just rain showers.. just looking at the radar and the snow showers are finally beginning to show up in the Irish sea which should get blown onto the coasts in the west as winds swing more north westerly in the morning. West Wales and the south west could see some lying snow tomorrow morning courtesy of the 'Dangler'

Not saying it wont happen in Feb, Met certainly hinting along the lines, however I think gfs got a little over excited this evening and may be a tad progressive with the idea....just beat me IDO

Again, if you look at the Net Weather Radar and click on 'weather type' you can see the snow is pretty much reserved for Scotland, not sure how accurate this is, but it got spot on here where we have had sleet showers at best..hardly a remarkable cold spell.

Just woken to a nice covering of....water! Yes its been raining again!

Yes the long fetch southwesterlies are notorious for rain 'streamers' the north west, especially Cumbria often sees flooding from these set ups. Longer term as the month turns, something dryer on the cards as pressure builds from the south...could feel quite S*****like!

Sods law, when you want a low to track further south into France, it'll stay put! Shows 90 + for my location

The other startling observation looking through this mornings models is how quick a south westerly flow can blow away the cold over Scandinavia... Ive a vested interest in Kuusamo weather in Finland, its been hovering about -20 since before xmas.. a 20 c rise expected in a weeks time.

As mentioned above, UKMO slaps a nasty storm smack over the UK next weekend! Damaging winds in the south IF it were to verify like this..the other thing that jumps out at you with this chart is just how flat the pattern is..

To be fair, if you looked at the models in isolation without the verbal commentry on the forum then Im not so sure too much has changed. GFS has brought the end of the snap/spell foreward but never had it long lasting from what I can remember. Met got it surprisingly wrong but must have been confident to stick their necks out.

UK with its very own + 10 isotherm..

You win !

Hmm, cant believe Im that much younger than you.. I have fond memories of '82 here, that certainly wont be repeated in my lifetime...on the plus side, I appear to have a yellow warning for snow on Wednesday night.. might get a passing shower

I think the dissapointment is how quickly the whole pattern falls apart just as it looks to get intersting. Day 10 charts from the mid term models are really poor and will see out Jan if they verify. Too much ramping getting folks hopes up.

Agree, these 'surprises' are usually when you get a cold flow established , next week we go WNW to N and then NW in 48 hrs.

Unfortunately history tells us it will probably have far more guts than this cold spell.

Even the so called 'northerly' is getting watered down run by run! It'll be a bloody southerly at this rate by the time we get to Wednesday!

Just thinking as I was running through the mocels..this has to go down as one of the biggest wild goose chases ever...what feels like an eternity for a brief powder puff northerly which a few years ago wouldnt have raised eyebrows let alone talked up for 3 weeks previous. You expect some to over egg it in here but cant remember the met getting something so wrong in their extended forecast (obviously things can still change in that part).This time next week solid agreement of gales and rain..I bet the longjevity of that is well forecast!... onto Feb...

For our location we could do with a bit of a more robust northerly to set up a good old Pembrokeshire Dangler, then a slight westerly tilt of north from the flow and bingo! The second part looks odds on, just as case if the northerly is sustained enough to get the dangler formed...

Goes to say, plenty of knowledge here in relation to the weather and background signals... forecasting for the UK is a different ball game..

Its the trend..south, south and then south. Previously it was Midlands..etc. A chance of some front edge snow next weekend if we can get enough of a wedge to preceed it to get a favourable tilt, otherwise, Im with Tim B.

Not sure if this is sarcasm? Apologies if not but can you back that up with some charts.. Maybe, the far south and far north but I'm missing this widespread snow...once again looks like a soft breakdown end of next week going by the longer term models (gfs & ECM)

I'd be extatic with that forecast! 5 and 6 degrees here with a rain shower Friday