KTtom

You're gonna get me shot ! UK long range weather forecast Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Thinking GFS had this nailed going 'Exeter's' update.. Milder air being drawn in by the the weekend'

Also clicking between 120 and 144 its evident how quickly the scandi trough is moving west..

It is but a quick glance to the north west and you can clearly see the spoiler..

Yes sticking last nights ECM with the last couple of GFS makes you wonder why some want the initial low to miss to the south..it might be the only chance you get to see some snow!

Tend to agree, but we will all still have a peek Massive variations run to run, let alone model to model..no point getting over excited or depressed over any single run for later next week until we start to see some consistancy. ECM just another possibility.

Ecm 168 synoptically is great, but the shortwave above has killled the uppers for southern areas!

Ahh, weve been moved. Yes the Aberporth weather station is based at the now Quinetic base..often seen on BBC also.

But very close to the coast.. knowing Hermon, you are in a good location!

Maybe some sort of model agreement for day 7/8 (slightly better than day 10!!) with low pressure starting to make inroads from the south west. Not too much excitement before then for the south, as mentioned above that shortwave is a pain as it cuts off the northerly flow briefly so its a race against time for the cold uppers to head south again before the low hits (if indeed it does).

The trend is colder again for most after the weekend after a brief warm up, after that no clue whatsoever, pretty much no consistancy between models or even with the same model run to run, so no point getting too excited or dispondant after every run. As mentioned last night, I just hope we get some excitement with an 'event' and not dry spell with a slow relaxing of temperatures.

Totally agree, time after time those on the other thread celerbrate during our rare cold spells when lows get modelled further south and miss the uk prolonging the cold, then we get a poder puff slow warning up and breakdown..lets get the northerly in then an Atlantic low next day! Lest see some action for a change!

Bring it on..I havent the appetite for another dry cold spell, lets see some action!

Sorry, I think you misunderstand. You said M4cast didnt say the eps were poor...my quote is what M4cast said this morning, its not my opinion its what he said. Page 239

Here is what he said.. The poster @TSNWKwas correct. "There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS."

Hardly wonderful! In a nut shell, cold and grey, snow showers north, low risk of more general spell of snow in the south before the Atlantic returns.

Isnt this always the case though past day 10, its as if its lower resolution and everything looks clear cut, then as we head towards day 7 models pick up on nuances which effect the micro detail?

Totally agree, was just pointing out what ECM showed, same as I did with my first post of the morning with gfs..not saying either is correct.. but it does illustrate the returning cold for southern half of the UK is on a knife edge

The most overused phrase on the forum... Great ECM day 10 chart thats now pushed out to the 17th. Uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.

ECM at 144...cold uppers still a long way off the UK.

Still plenty of scatter for the period 15th to 18th ....op lurching from one of the mildest, then coldest then back to milder. It has been the same for the last few runs..still on a knife edge as to whether cold makes it back to southern areas mid month. North is almost a dead cert.

Plus the text is the same as yesterday, so as of now they probably think there isnt enough of a strong signal to change...having said that I havent really seen any output with encroachment from the south in reation to widespread snow. Agree with Crewe earlier tho, we are looking at a 3 to 4 day window.

Nick F mentioned this yesterday. One of the key players here is the Azores low. It needs to track south of the UK to prop up the high..ecm has it too far west.

So, we end up with a southerly at just day 8 on ECM I think gfs may have a boost in popularity again!

Apart from the fact Spain is colder than the UK