KTtom

Yes, if anything, the heat that some were adamant we would be tapping into from the south by the end of the month is getting pushed further away south as time goes by.

UKMO 168 showing another low moving in off the Atlantic to give another unsettled end to nextweekend after a slightly better, but cool week ahead. Law of averages says we will get at least 1 more dry warm week out of summer but at present still nothing to indicate anything hot incomming for the remainder of July that I can see, which IMO looking at southern europe is a blessing. The met have handled this outlook quite well for a change, they have been promoting winds from the north west for some time and thats what were getting next week keeping the heat to the south.

This is the issue tho.. Net-Weather is a Weather Site where amateurs can discuss the weather, guidance is one thing but posters shouldn't need 'shutting up' because they don't agree with others. One thing no-one can argue about, this weekend is going to feel autumnal!

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the Azores high.

I would love to know whats changed to give us what is looking increasingly like a very unsettled July? I go back to Crewecolds post in May where there was a 'clean sweep' from the longer term models for a high pressure dominated July with sizzling temperatures. Does make you wonder for their worth...maybe worth bearing this in mind when they dish up their winter offerings.

We've pretty much missed the heavy rain in the far west to this point, but it looks like our luck is going to change over the next 7 to 10 days... ukmo and others painting a pretty grim picture for next weekend with gales forecast for the west!

UKMO this morning and we're back to the UK low for next weekend...

Met 10 dayer on the previous page explains it pretty well with the hot weather in the States and cold air heading south west of Greenland, high energy where the two meet.

A lovely weekend for some coming up, ECM joining GFS with showing quite a dramatic cool down as we head into July with a developing mid-Atlantic high and north westerlies setting in .

Heavy shower at 4am this morning, apart from that its still cloudy and warm, Met forecast for Wales has been woefull today with zero showers showing on the Net-Weather radar in Wales at the time the Met forecast was heavy showers. Very poor considering the money we pay.

From a purely IMBY point of view I see a, whats become typical summer panning out. May and June dry, clear skies and warm..July and August unsettled whilst the better conditions move to the east...normal service resumes, nothing abnormal.

You know best

You are correct alexis..the storms loose intensity and merge to form a band of heavy rain moving west / north west...progression pretty obvious now if you check out the radar.

Tried that last year and ended up with large bear patches throughout winter, trying a different approach this year by not cutting and watering. Looks like this weekends showery activity is dwindling away, so another 7 days minimum to wait for any rain.

Getting towards 3 weeks now of unbroken sunshine, its getting more humid now we have lost the cool breeze, getting bored of standing on the front lawn with a hosepipe at 5am tyring to keep it alive...just doesnt seem to be any variety these days.

Blimey, you and NWS are hardly on a popularity charge this morning

ukmo also showing showery rain moving up from the southwest late Saturday...

Happy to see it, Met still going for it in the south mid month, unfortunately there were going for it wk1 June not so long ago...

Someone posted in the other thread where a town recorded 56 days without rainfall last year. I can see that being beaten. My location is nearing 20 odd days now, the last 10 have been unbroken sunshine bar Tuesday. The ECM day 10 chart is amazingly similar to that of today, no sign of anywhere seeing rain for the foreseeable.

Nothing likely next 10 days. This has to be one of the most stagnant patterns I have known, usually the high tends to wonder around changing the variables around, however the overnight gfs day 10 chart looks almost identical to todays, and that of 10 days ago. My 10 day app forecast is another 10 days without a cloud in the sky. Not looking good for a change in the east either with a persistant easterly breeze. Met stubbornly sticking with a breakdown in the south mid month but not showing up in the models as yet.

My favorite month of the year is June. Traditionally the best month of the year for settled, warm weather over on the western side. Being a coastal location the easterly breeze we have had these last couple of weeks has seen wall to wall sunshine with no sign of the pesky sea mist. Oh, and as its still school time you can get out and enjoy the weather without the crowds...happy to work throughout August! Noticeable im up in the mornings at 5am, yet 6.30 is a struggle in winter.

Guessing the Med will be happy to see the demise of the UK high

Thats the frustrating thing about our weather these last few years, we get into a pattern that sticks for weeks, no variety, hence we go from floods to drought

Unfortunately that is the curse of the winter board, the 'likes' brigade. Im sure some are in competition.

What are the Seasonals showing now then? Has there been a big change? It was only a few weeks ago you posted a clean sweep with all models showing a high pressure dominated Summer?