KTtom

Ive been to Stockholm, lovely city...im off to Ruka near Kuusamo end of Jan...If you want a snow fix, thats the place..(google Ruka web cams)

Think it may be similar to 'the torpedoe has been launched'

Yes, unfortunately its becomming more of a clique over there, ive noted it before in recent years but definitely worse this year. You say about learnings, ive regularly asked in relation to teleconnections what went wrong in August as apparently the science was rock solid pointing towards a hot dry spell...totally ignored by the so called experts! Its nice to have people like Tillys posting factual charts as opposed to those posting something at day 10 and guessing how it will transcribe into something fantastic down the line..hopefully he/she continues and doesnt loose enthusiasm fighting the tide. I thought we were having a 'chasing cold' thread this year for the rampers Anyway, enough of the moaning, the Xmas cold spell is now within the reliable..just checked the Met, my temps are forecast to tumble to a bone chilling 9 c on 25th and 26th.

Got a better memory for dates than me, but I remember that one, first appeared in early December for the end of the month, then constantly moved out in 2 week chunks until it finally vanished start of spring..think that was the same year EC46 also constantly showed northern blocking galore every update which never materialised.

From my understanding, Tropical Maritime is air sourced direct from the tropics i.e. south westerly sourced from the Azores.. Returning polor maritime airmasses originate from the north but may still be from a south westerly direction as it hits the UK as it circles an area of low pressure to the west..anyway, rpm is colder and dryer.

Funny how the UKMO is on 'ignore' over the other thread...Im not brave enough so ill post it here.

Remind us what went wrong in August then when all background drivers said settled and very warm as late as mid July? When i look at charts like this UKMO 168 i see little sign of a majour pattern change anytime soon.. which is the Mets take till mid Jan at earliest. As someone said yesterday, the overpowering teleconnection we have is Climate change .

The other thing ive learned is to stick to the same 3 models and look for consistancy, the obvious 3 for me being GFS, UKMO and ECM. When you get ICON and JMA being rolled out you know its desperation time. There are so many models, ens out there look hard enough and you will find what you want to see.

Its the constant modelling of the Euro high after Christmas which is turning into a bit of a worry... It may be 10 days or so away but its a constant theme of the latest gfs runs and now ECM is in range of that time period.

You spent longer in pub than me !?

Its consistancy in model output you look for and a euro high has been constantly modelled for a couple days now, take into mets forecast and there is high confidence..models handle mild spells much better than colder spells and FI pushes out significantly. As NS commented the other day, the southerly digging trough always seems to be corrected north nearer the day.

Yes, the trend since yesterday is in the wrong direction if you are looking for a wintry blast..a monster euro high forming on gfs in time for Christmas. A couple of posters absence this morning speaks volumes for the output. We need something to shake the pattern.

A wry smile how fickle we are.. during a cold spell anyone who posts a chart past 144hrs showing a return to milder conditions get absolutely ridiculed, yet it sounds like this north westerly at 200 odd hours is nailed on!? Before then, 5 days minimum of temperatures in double digits for me, although sunshine will be limited to say the least.

The tone for late this month now being pushed on to mid next month, with a 'low chance' of something other than a northerly toppler.

According to last nights ECM we still are!

Not sure ive seen such a chart with 2 so dominant systems. A deep large vortex moving into Scandinavia and a massive High pulling west into the mid Atlantic...screams potent, long lasting northerly by day 12 to me....if we get to this stage..

I still go back to July when everything was aligned for a settled and very warm August.. it didn't happen! The phrase 'Rock solid science can't be wrong' being used to describe the background signals in mid July.

Pretty grim if its cold your after, one of those times when logging on the first frame I click is T168 and go from there!! Funny how the models are so consistant during mild spells. The typical winter pattern of deep votex to the north and large area of high pressure over europe continues for the next 10 days minimum by the looks of it. Edit: lol, @TillyS done it again!

Not sure the +10 850 line has made it to Scotland too mant times in mid December..look away now if of a nervous disposition...

Significant? Nope, as Blizzard pointed out the last line was conveiniently left out of the quote which states its more likely to stay mild and wet. Depends on your weather bias how its interpretation, being a cynic you could say it reads there is a chance it could turn colder as we go into January...really?!. Anyway, certainly nothing noteworthy of another pattern change in the overnight model runs although maybe a hint from ECM later for something a little better..

Is there such a thing as historical radar charts? Wouldnt mind a radar sequence to see what produced so much snow over Cumbria last weekend?

Yea, apart from the temperature (back to double digits here from tomorrow) there is little get enthused about, rain and wind a plenty. Back to head scratching for those who visualised this being a mild blip.

GFS day 10 has the blocks firmly in place which generalise a typical UK mid-winter..High pressure to the south and a solid slab of PV to the north west. The UK situated on the fast running weterly highway in between. This is going to be a bit more than a mild 'blip'.

Really not getting this teleconnections lark. A couple of posters in particular seem to be lorded with their technical posts, Im not denying they are out there and they do influence our weather in our tiny section of the globe, but as yet, to me no one fully understands the impact as yet.. 2 examples stick to mind.. last March was touted as potentially being the coldest in a zillion years..it ended up,average after a cold week 1, the second was how the " science is rock solid" that August would be hot and blocked.. it was wet and mobile. So, not buying into this winter will be anything other than mild, wet and breezy.

Milder air already arrived here in the south west, wind has got up, frost has gone and the showers are now of rain.