KTtom

GFS ensembles seem to be splitting into 2 groups for March...currently around 30 % favouuring the colder option. Interesting that the operational keeps following this route though.

Yea, nothing unusual in having wild blocking scenarios showing in the far reaches of gfs as we head into March when the PV starts to weaken even without the effects of a SSW.

Must admit I find your posts a refreshing change from the over egged hype from most in here. I totally agree with your post, yes an exceptional 384 chart from gfs, and this is what we will need in March to deliver anything half decent for the southern half of the UK. At the moment..that 384 chart is the only chart out there which is decent. People looking at building blocks but the winter is ticking away quickly. 2013 may have delivered in March, but that was 10 years ago and the climate has changed alot in 10 years...as has been said previously by some, 2018 was a one off. From next weeks drop off, the gfs mean is on a constant up hill track until the end where the op goes on its own way.

Pretty well summed up there 'the clock is ticking' good illustrations from ECM how good synoptics dont deliver as we enter March, were looking for exceptional .

Some 'interesting' charts appearing at the latter end of GFS, particularly as we head into March. But, is this really abnormal for the time of year?. Something in my head seems to suggest we often get stunning winter synoptics in spring, hence the reason the phrase 'if only it were January' gets rolled out frequently as the season changes?

Met going for Average to Mild all the way through to 2nd March. I guess sub minus 5 uppers, will still generate ground temps of 7-9 c in the late February sunshine.

I note thats the end of the commentry. It really does seem to be on its own the last couple of runs, but who knows it might be right, after all its the gfs which has been lambasted all winter for being useless.

Pretty much took my words away. High pressure pretty much all the way (initially cloudy) then a glancing polor blow around the 23rd, then looking like a sunnier high takes over. Far reaches of the gfs now into March, nothing to get excited about yet. Lack of rain will shortly be an unwelcome topic.

If you love high pressure and hate wind and rain, you're going to love the 00z gfs !

Cracking day today, wall to wall sunshine, same tomorrow...I can already feel my energy levels and general mojo rising.

Was going to post something similar yesterday then thought twice However, you hit the nail on the head, whether its the upgrades or just how dismal the prospects have been this winter but routinely gfs used to throw up mouth watering charts in the outer reaches of fi on a constant basis, sadly lacking this year until now...18z looked likely to develop into smething interesting 00Z couldnt be less interesting if it tried... T 384 very similar to T 0. Agree with posters last night, very unlikely to see anything intersting until turn of the month.

Just a hint this morning that by next weekend we will be heading into a more mobile phase with Atlantic lows heading in for the first time in weeks...

Unfortunately these graphs can be slightly misleading.. whilst there is no doubt the trend is down and looks good ...just look at where we are starting from. If T0= average then they wouldnt look so good ?

Lovely here, clear blue skies, little wind and warmth off the sun... Back to grey cloud tomorrow as I've booked the day off!

Was thinking just yesterday, its been a very dry winter bar the 3 week mid season deluge. And yes, I agree, whilst I hate storms and constant rain, we do need a pattern change which the SSW should provide even if its not a colder one.

Certainly no concerns with regard to stormy weather for some considerable time if UKMO 168 verifies...as Cambrian pointed out above, the block seems to be on an interesting direction of travel..

Ukmo 144... Spring has come early..

Looking like the SSW straw will be the last one to cling onto if we are to see any further cold weather this Winter. Operationals showing euro high for the duration of their outputs , so southwesterlies for the UK...wet in the north west.

Imagine if it was like this here ..

Hmm not sure... I spot a Norwegian Shortwave!

Ironic or just blumin aggrivating, but just as we had a chance of pressure rise to the north east, the core of the PV decides to leave Greenland for the first time this winter and relocate there!

Some really odd, even worrying posts on the moaning thread this evening...'gfs must be embarrassed' 'never to be foregiven' jeez... im sure think some think GFS is a guys initials who draws up the output!

Its a very valid point... Unless you know what the 'usual' pattern is... atmospheric pressure, then an anomaly chart doesn't necessarily mean much.. just because a positive anomaly is shown, it could still result in low pressure, just not as low as normal?

Ive done that before, gone to quote someone then accidently typed in the quote box! Very dangerous, posters could edit what you have said

What i find odd is that it must be a models software which makes it stick to a particular pattern? There is obviously something out there which is guiding the gfs to continue with this output, other models obviously are proggrammed differently so this sign is less significant...we have seen models do this before where despite new daily data it sticks to its output until it gets to the stage where it just isnt feasible before backing down (more of a question than a statement).