KTtom

ECM 120 also like UKMO...would love gfs to be right after the flak it gets ...just cant see it.

To be fair UKMO has only been in range for a couple of days and is firm in saying no to any easterly. It would take a very brave man to bet against it at 120 hrs (I think that was a Nick Sussex quote) Safe to say it hasnt much support, 00z ens .....wouldnt mind the orange run tho

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Not sure you can say 'woeful performance' when we are still talking about the future?

The Beast from the North West is flexing its muscle again...

I see the GFS upgrade issues have been fixed

Shhhhh!! Anyone seen the last line of next weeks forecast from the Met.... Sunday is likely to be a widely fine day, with long sunny spells across all areas, with residual showers in the far north clearing through the morning, and with cloud and light rain in the south also clearing. Cloudier conditions may begin to develop in the far west later. Strong winds in the north at first but easing through the day. Further into the period the conditions are expected to remain settled for many at first, with the most of any wet weather likely in the far northwest. Temperatures most likely around average for most. Later, the most likely scenario is for wetter, windier and milder weather to move in from the west, however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers.

Dream land or not, thats quite a chart from gfs for mid month based on where we are currently...

Just looking at the archive charts in the run up to the BFTE 1991, maybe ill have to change my tune with regards to we cant get an easterly with the PV stuck over Greenland

I learnt from a sarcastic reply I had this morning to be very careful about what words I use, and I agree, everyone should be able to post what they see without being shot down on here

There definately is scope, the issue we have, in my opinion, the pv isnt shifting to the NW, so, we could end up with a decent Scadi high with the UK ending up with southerly winds out of it.

yes, my point, whilst trying to add a miniscule bit of humour on a Monday morning was that without Greenland the TPV would likely to be more mobile and not stuck permanently to our NW throughout the winter months driving our weather.

Really..maybe you can check to see if the Jet stream was still running as you have so much time.... My point, as I'm sure you were well aware is the profile around Greenland was a little different!

Exactly! They say the Gulf Stream is responsible for our relatively mild winters...personally I think its Greenland...without sounding like a stuck record, no chance of anything noteworthy here while we have Purpleland to the NW.

For once im actually content this year...my preference is snow, my hate is severe gales and constant rain..so, neither have occurred here, so the winter so far goes in the ok basket.

Boom ! ' oh well it would be rude not to'

Its not happening

To be fair though, its not the weather that has lead to that scenario its the government...the emphasis is on the affordability not the cold.

Yea, if someone asked me to draw a winter chart which had the worst potential for cold and snow, that would be close, it even moves a segment of PV east to quash any hopes of a Scandinavia high. The plus side, the high to our south does look like its going to save us from a battering from the Atlantic. Might be able to get some value out of my golf membership for the first time this year!

If im not getting snow it'll do me, im sure there are many homeowners (storms) and those who want to get out (constant rain) who are happy with 'nothing'

Well, Im defeated, spent half hour but still cant find a chart of any interest to post...typical NW / SE split for the foreseeable. Edit: Interesting for the wrong reasons but look how quick the SPV starts to heal once the warming attacks petter out..

Im intrigued to get your thoughts on what has changed since you replied with no text just a laughing emoji when a poster mentioned 'winter is over' just a week ago, then almost post the same? You also mentioned previously about week 1 Feb being one to watch? Just interested to hear your thoughts on why the suddern switch ? Baring in mind the poster you laughed at wasn't a 'pro'.

There is still a willingness to ridge to Scandi, however, absolutely no chance of anything of interest here if the heights over Greenland are correct., if anything they are getting worse?

As its quiet, any chance someone could give a laymans explanation of this chart, it baffles me! Obviously nothing to do with pressure ?

You forgot how the Met will leave it to the last minute to stop mass hysteria...secretly that have been eyeing this up for weeks.