KTtom

Hmm, getting the impression the GFS op is no longer 'a total embarrassment' to the model world and 'should be binned' ? Nice to drive home from work tonight in sunshine

Totally agree, not a cloud in the sky here and going by the average of the model runs, high pressure to the south east should ensure plenty of repeats as we go through the beginning of February. I feel an early spring coming up this year.

3 posts this morning, 2 of which show 384 chart from GFS which doesnt even have sub -5 uppers. No point wasting time on the other models then.

Well, we know which one won't verify!

Posted this on the Model thread first thing this morning... GFS, GFS mean, ECM and UKMO reverting back to high anomaly to the south east...again. Strangely enough my post hasn't made it to the light bulb thread!

They obviously exist, but what effect in isolation they have on our weather is very much up for debate...like life in general, experiance is the most important tool you can have when predicting the weather. Ive been studying charts for 15 years and using my experiance from past events and the default pattern of what is likely to happen next from a specific chart has proven far more accurate than some warm pool of water in the Pacific.

Some interst for the north east over the next few days in the wake of departing lows, however, the direction of travel for 'the' high has been well documented recently in the means, UKMO 168 and GFS 240 suggesting a return to late December.. Throw in last nights 240 from ECM and its very consistant, unfortunately, as is often the case FI moves way out in some set ups and currently were looking day 10 IMO

Dont think there will be much arguing over whether uppers are cold enough for snow at the Canadian forums... - 40 uppers!

Agree, its very difficult to move from thread to thread when they are linked, more so is that the Strat thread tends to be far more technical so there can be fear of diluting that thread when you only have a basic strat profile to post. A bit like when you spot something in the NWP which might back up, or go against the Mets forecast but can't discuss it here. Very frustrating.

I think this is an excellent well balanced post / forecast without bias..very unusual. It also has support from the Met. Seems like the trend is forma few PM shots, favouring the north east before the PV really gets its act together and flatterns the pattern...hopefully the high stays close enough to the south (as per 12z gfs) to save us from a run of storms which we've got away with so far. P.S Dont worry about being shot down, it happens to everyone, the reason the more knowledgeable weather gurus dont post much in here.

Yes, it does something similar on the 00z....just look where the PV decides to reinforce...

Unfortunately I dont think that is a promising sign, well for us anyway, the deep cold is due to the dense PV, this just fires up the jet due to a big temperature gradient. No sign of this cold being released to lower lattitudes at the moment.

Its warmed up in the west now, currently 7 c and predicted double figures from Wednesday, trouble is we have to pay for it with cloud!

I was beginning to wonder what charts I was missing out on reading the previous page... That anomaly is not good going forewords, and considering most have previously said they are the most reliable, it must be taken seriously? It sounds like the Stat warming will be no good for any assistance so we are relying on home grown luck to get another cold spell, which worked fine in December.

Bet that went down well Very much agree. This last week was not exceptional for mid January Even the Met say it, cold yes. I agree the pre Xmas cold was out of the ordinary, especially for night time cold, but to balance that we had an out of the ordinary 2 week mild spell. So,overall with justover a month to go, temperature wise around average below average snowfall, by the end of Feb my money will be on winter being above average temperature wise.

I agree, the biggest issue this winter compared to others is the stakes are higher... cold, cloudy, dry etc is expensive...most I think would pay for a good snowfall but to see increased costs with no reward gets most here very frustrated.

I guess there is a bit of IMBY in people perception... from my point of view then, at no point so far in January has it been cold enough here to snow. We had showers everyday last week (rain) up to yesterday and then today where its been drizzly..

..to add to my negative mood this Sunday evening...the farthest reaches of the gfs backs up what Blue (i think) said this morning of the dangers not having a split...that SPV looks ready to regain control once the series of warmings die out??

Well GFS 300 Plus charts were acceptable a couple of weeks ago, so here is tonights, my point being, to back up this mornings post that sometimes patterns are predictable and models do not 'struggle' as much as other times and hence the old term FI moves around timescales..look back through the thread, this is the pattern GFS has rolled out at least for the last 3 runs..it also mirrors the mean from this morning (probably a worst case but the theme is the same)..

I do find it slightly amusing how a few frosty days during the sweet spot of winter is classified as something unusual? Perhaps its an age thing...regarding the definition of a mild or cold winter, only stats will say...its been cold thisnlast week, yes, but very cold taking into account where we are in terms of mid January...dont think so... Ive had 2 frosts this last week. A straight northerly and west wales would have been blanketed back in the 80's...we had rain showers, if you squint I can just make out a white haze over Snowdonia, the Presselies are green.

Yes, its nice to convince ourselves that anything can happen after day 5 but in reality I think the uncertainty of the overall pattern for our neck of the woods in currently well beyond that date. Cross model agreement that our high will sink eventually due to the TPV continuing in its relentless domination to the north. I note even the met have removed their usual caveat of 'low confidence' from their forecast which mirrors the mean charts from gfs and ecm (becoming wetter and windier from the north).

Gfs mean for week 1 February seems to suggest we're heading back mild with the high that wobbles around the UK for the next 10 days or so finally sinks south after giving up the fight with the PV! Fairly good agreement this will happen with no model showing a more favourable outcome that ive looked at.. Met also hinting at this pattern until at least mid February.

Cheers BFTP...im well into my 50's now and get totally confused as to how many genders there are out there these days

I think you have mis-interoperated his/her post. He/she is basically warning viewers that there will be a down-beat, defeatist mood in here today which he/she isn't buying into due to all the uncertainty..

I usually look foreward to warmth and sunshine around mid March, this year i'm making an exception...Met going for settled and then unsettled and mild until mid Feb... Model thread has resorted to desperate grasping at any teleconnection they can find that shows otherwise, mainly the Stat, which is getting a little tedious now, so, Roll on Spring!