MPG
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Posts posted by MPG
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
LOL if you don't mind me saying, that's a bit negative!
But probably realistic
HNY
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:
Happy New Year GANG
I'm still waiting for winter to start, hopefully won't have too long to wait!
December 16!
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GFS a step towards mild. No cold uppers enter the UK throughout the run. SW, WET mild influence throughout run.
Fergie talks of SSW in Feb..well that may not effect the UK and by then winter is coming to an end.
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7 minutes ago, shaky said:
Spot on!!thats exaxctly what ive noticed aswell mate!!!things look ugly at around the 144 hour timeframe then come within 48 hours it looks better!
Give me a proper Atlantic block / greeny high not this rubbish undercut scenario. All I can see is rain or cold rain with LP systems whipping in one after another bringing rain and hill snow in the north. There was so much talk of this high pressure appearing towards scandi and clearly it has increased flooding chances rather than snow.
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23 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
Yes, interesting indeed...
5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:I make that four out of the last six GFS op runs in the extended period, 12th-14th January, which have exhibited significant distress signals for the vortex - of the sort that signals something terminal: stretching across a displaced axis and rapid transfers of energy through the lobes.
Gents, can we have a little laymans please, so I could understand what this may mean for the UK. I can see on the output the amount of blocking, but the UK seems to miss the cold air. Maybe another 7 days before the icandy charts start to show? Thanks.
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So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.
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27 minutes ago, cheese said:
Tosh. People haven't gotten on with their lives - their homes are still ruined and uninhabitable. Large areas of York are still inundated with water - and York is flatter than nearly anywhere else in the country so it has nothing else to do but sit around endlessly. Not to mention it is a very sizable settlement - so a slightly different scenario to farmers in the Somerset Levels.
I have friends who are still NOT back in their homes in Somerset. Somerset 100 times worse than the current situation in the north. At least people in the north had a chance to recover some belongings when the water went down..........the people in Somerset lost everything and couldn't recover a thing. The water never went down for months!!!
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What cold spell? Atlantic wet, windy through the models is seems.
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1 hour ago, phil nw. said:
The twitter chart is a snapshot at T348hrs -15days.The noaa chart is the average spread of 6 day ht anomalies from day 8-14days ahead.
You are looking at 2 different models as well- one is ECM based and the noaa is from the American outputs.
In spite of all that though there are similarities if you look at the tramlines-thicknesses-we see a trough over the eastern side of NA extending into the Atlantic.The anomaly coloured dashed lines are just a measure of positive or negative heights against climatoligy.
I hope that helps MPG.
Thanks very much.
23 minutes ago, Mucka said:Yes better high alignment and better undercut at 96h than GFS, fingers crossed.
GFS is an improvement with the jet further South, just need better initial undercut
Why are we still chasing the easterly?
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Looks different to the 500mb charts...(please correct me etc)
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
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20 minutes ago, Bullseye said:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681821879519342592 Nice -NAO signal too.
Yeah, but the ECMWF Ensemble he posted would probably bring low pressure systems right across the Atlantic to our shores like previous winters in NE USA.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
I agree, to me the colder clusters were outweighed by the not so cold ones....it looks horrendous from here. A huge block stopping all those Atlantic lows going anywhere, so we're stuck right under the trough with copious rainfall again and gale force winds. Yuck!!!
Give me a Greenland high any day over a Scandi block.
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9 minutes ago, knocker said:
As you know these charts do not indicate rainfall but if you wind on the ops run to T228 you will find a low 964mb centred on N.Ireland with associated fronts running SE through England so some very wet and windy conditions
To be honest I didn't see much discussion during those four hours................more a succession of soundbites. Then perhaps I wasn't paying attention.
Knocker your a gem
especially your last paragraph!
228 is FI? How about the colder solutions within the reasonable reliable time frame.
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1 minute ago, knocker said:
Busy but the anomalies aren't of much use with the immediate evolutionn which is down to the det, outputs. The ecm does though give a good overview and it can be seen how knife edgy the position is. Depressions running NE into the UK before swinging SE which of course is where the snow potential lies. Actually my main concern is how much rain will this progresion dump on the north.
Thanks knocker. Your first post for 4 hours, the same time period as the 12z and the discussion regarding them! Is that chart showing rain for the north?
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41 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:
One post says cold and snow. Another says cold and rain! How will we ever learn on here with such contrasting views! At least it's all heading in right direction.
And where's knocker? Need those westerly anomolies to keep our feet on the ground!
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19 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
From my point of view, a mean is of most use when the spread of data is somewhere nearly evenly-distributed. If the data is clustered with none of those being close to the mean, it's apt to be misleading, as it suggests a middle-of-the-road result is favoured when the data actually supports one or more clusters of data towards the fringes of the spread. I'm speaking generally here, as I don't have much experience with ensemble means, but what I'm saying is that I'd imagine that, in unstable setups, the mean by itself may be misleading.
It is misleading and just better to skip past and ignore the clear agenda. People posting the finer details of the output are great to learn from than just a broad brush approach.
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The -5 line never enters the southern part of the UK through the whole of the 6z output...
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Never relying on an easterly until t24.
A continuation of the GFS Christmas presents was just a tease. Greece looks more likely to get cold rather than the UK from this pattern.
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"We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January. Still, If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents for the remainder of the winter."
No confidence from Cohen regarding next year.......IF we do we do, if we don't we don't. The more likely outcome will be the AO will stay around positive.
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Just now, Greenland1080 said:
Thanks.
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1 hour ago, chris55 said:
That exert from the Cohen blog is interesting, a SSW sometime in Jan leading to some severe winter weather across NH is certainly a possibility by the sounds of it. In the mean time it would be nice if we could squeeze something more seasonable out of this pattern before the big one!
Link please.
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38 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
How do you know that? It could even be not as cold as March 2013 but far snowier.
Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016.
And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.
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Yes, but 2013 will not be repeated. And in most places that year the temps were cold but no snow.
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The good thing is only 9 weeks of winter left
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HNY
Model output discussions pm 31/12/15
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
FI is toying with a pressure rise from the south, but it ends up over the UK instead of riding up into the Atlantic. Again the cold goes into eastern Europe.