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MPG

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Posts posted by MPG

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

    Which equates to stable, high, +AAM signal, global wind oscillation phase 6 untainted by Indian Ocean convective anomaly. Quite good model agreement for a cyclonic phase to develop, and residual height anomalies centred over the Kara and Barents Seas will tend to force a more negative tilt to the jet. Still no imminent sign of anything unseasonably cold, yet, but this shift in global forcing to a more classical Nino will make life interesting from mid Jan, not least the stratosphere  where we will see some more tangible developments from 11th onwards where a big wave 1 and 2 hit is being lined up.

    cfs hovmollers consistently persisting the tropical forcing just east of the dateline suggesting that this +AO / west qbo regime is beginning to relinquish its grip

    Patients required then it seems until January....but until then its more of the same. 

    We do see the -5 line over the UK and the PV shunted at 360 on the 0z...:)

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Lol, it hard to predict mate! 

    14 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

    Well, with only three days to go now until the big day, I guess my prediction wasn't so far out after all, especially given this was at D7 range. Now D7 (29th December) was previously judged by me and few others as the date when things start ramping up again in the Atlantic, after a brief spell of calmer weather. Unfortunately, this latter aspect looks rather unlikely now which proves how we can't look too far into the future when either chasing cold or mild weather. For now, the milder weather continues and Christmas Day and Boxing Day is looking rather unseasonal down South in particular but also for most of the UK. The change to something colder has to come eventually and I live in hope that I'll see at least an Air Frost before the year turns.

    Give yourself a pat on the back, it wasn't that hard to get right was it!:)

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MPG

    Seems a change of pattern with regard to the Scandi region with some sort of HP positioned somewhere (meaning the models have no idea just yet). As for the UK, the same theme of westerly with rain. Lots of talk about this high pressure, but not one chart has shown this change of pattern over Scandi directly effecting our shores (well unless your talking about it becoming even milder or about the same).

    • Like 4

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MPG

    20 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Or perhaps there is a little scientific basis that the El nino that is responsible for the current pattern feeds back later in the winter and produces a SSW. It may or may not occur but it is not straw clutching and is based on feedback mechanisms that have been well explained and seen in many (strong) Nino's prior to this one. In fact, this Nino seems bang in line with expectations. Strong vortex with warm wet early winter, wave 1 strat displacement, Scandi high........

    How do you see January/Feb playing out and what are you basing this on? Or is your post based on even less than the straws that you claim others are clutching?

     

    You can have as much scientific basis as you want, but when it comes to the weather nothing pans out as your shown. So many people said a SSW was nailed last year around Xmas (matt Hugo etc) this was based on sceince, I think it was described in the end as half a SSW but in reality it didnt happen. So what years as you basing this El nino setup with regards to a SSW? I dont believe there are any comparisons and we are in uncharted teritory. It's good to have a straw to clutch, keeps the interested, but nothing is guaranteed. More mild, above average conditions are expected through jaunary.  I am basing my thoughts on their science and models (met). Also we live in a mild climate, continuous days of freezing temperatures let alone weeks is the extreme. 

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Yes as you would expect a SSW (trop led) is dependant on wave attacks from the trop. If we can get a sustained attack, say a Scandi/Euro ridge for a week or so, that would more than likely get a strat response for mid-Jan onwards and a resetting of the NH profile. That does not necessarily mean the UK will get cold (knowing our luck, but greatly improves our chances). I think Cohen anticipates that wave 2 is incoming and hopefully he is correct, but a sensible proviso, that if these further attacks don't happen, then all bets are off! Last year is a good reason why we need to show caution. I am hopeful as another two months of this would be the pits.

     

    Thanks for the constructive reply IDO explaining what Cohen was saying.

    • Like 2

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    It interesting that the likes of Cohen, say such similar comments as frequent this forum..

     A strong pulse of energy transfer is now consistently being predicted for next week by the weather models.    This will start to weaken the polar vortex but by itself is not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. 

    However, if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude to force a meaningful change in the polar vortex, there is little reason to anticipate any long term deviations from the mild to very mild temperatures in eastern North America and/or Europe.

     

    Still very much all to play for..

    Thats not how I read it.....the first paragraph says 'not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex'. Then says 'if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude'......then to me it seems we are in for more of the same pattern for a good deal of winter yet.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Yes a very wide spread there Mucka.Usually in an ongoing zonal outlook it's very rare to see more than around a 5C spread either side of the mean.

    This is often reflective of large uncertainty on the placement of the jet and the attendant wavelenghts.In other words anything is possible beyond this week.

    Indeed but the main clustering is above the +5 degrees mark. Therefore more likely mild to cool until the end of the month....but there is a clear split but not in colds favour.

    • Like 1

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MPG

    29 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Hmm - well no. I've lived in Dorset and Somerset since 1993. In that time I've seen snow in November, I've seen harsh frosts in November (in the 90s some were very harsh), and plenty of cold days in December. This winter is so far shocking - and part of that by the way is the obvious westerly regime that will dominate for another fortnight at least. 

    I think you are lurking in the wrong thread. Go and take your gloomy reasoned argument to the model watchers - nearly all of whom pour over charts in detail without bothering to take into account the global drivers that are making this winter so poor.

    And as this Nino is far from "normal" then any comment referring to "normal" weather is pointless. And anyway - since when was anything "normal" in the world of weather when so much chaos dominates? Are you telling me it is "normal" to be warm in December... or should "normal" be that it is a bit colder? Bah - daft argument.

    And my comment stands. So far - early days yes - this winter is a depressingly poor one.

    I think your first sentence or so completely agrees with my point regarding sometimes above and sometimes below average. November isn't winter...winter started 6 days ago. I've lived in the same area since 1981, and as u describe some snow in November and colder days in December. 1991 for a few days great, 2009/10 the exception. Cheer up, winter has just begun. Move to a more seasonal country is my advice for u. It's only the weather.....

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MPG

    36 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Ha - I love your optimism! I'll share it until the day I die.... but right now this winter is awful, on the back of an awful one for the south last year. If we dont get the substantial wave 1 shunt to the vortex in the 3 - 6 week time bracket then this winter will end up a disaster throughout. I'm trying not to have a bad feeling overall, but with constant wind and rain it is difficult. And it is so damned warm too. Where are my winter heating bills? I miss them... :-(

    When has the UK ever been known for cold winter seasons? Our climate is mild, that being in winter and summer, with some periods of above or below average. How can this winter be awful, it's 6 days old! This december is no different to any other, wet, windy and snow for scotish hills. 2010 spolit us, and was a one off, we don't live in Scandinavia or Canada. This is normal UK winter fare, really don't get why people expect days or weeks of cold, snow, frost when it's not the norm for our shores.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

    Vast majority approx 70% of gefs inc control run agree with gfs 06z at t144. 

     

     

    19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS ensembles pretty awful too, rather than a signal for pressure to decline over NW/Central Europe we see a signal for the return of the slug (Euro high)

    I don't think me and this new GFS are going to get along very well.

    They do improve in deepest FI but then that's another story.

     

    Let's hope ECM is better and more in line with UKMO and GFS is just a blip.

    Conflicting posts?

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

    I've been trying to get this loaded up for a few days, to show that GEFS really are following the trend for a pattern change. The quality is not very good, as I am on my phone, but it shows the point anyway.

    GEFS shows a very clear pattern change (850's shown) at around the T140-T180 mark, by the end of the run, A majority of the runs bring in the much colder 850's.

    For me it's less will a pattern change occur, but rather how will it show itself, will the artic high migrate enough to Greenland, will enough PV be left to interrupt things. The pattern change to a blocked is pretty certain.

    image1.PNG

    Thats a great tool, any link to that?

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MPG

    10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Can't post pictures but the GFS control has a pretty good FI too....As things start shaping up at day 10 the ECM, and GEM need to get and stay on board.

    knocker, as you are not a coldie like most of us - can you see things changing considerably this side of Xmas? Ian F if your watching, what do you think? White Xmas???

    Going by what's on offer in FI and the charts Knocker has posted, it seems that the north could be seeing a more of NW influence into mid month but with lower 850 temps and wintry ppn to lower levels. As for the south more westerly than NW but much cooler with wintry ppn to the hills. Cant see anything proper northerly.

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

    Model watching is so painful at the moment. Lots of "signs" signalling change but we never get anywhere and it's always pushed back. I give up.

    OK, cheers see you next winter....oh hang on its December 4th.........the forth day of winter.

    When is December ever cold and snowy??? Ok you have 2010, that spoilt us. If we didn't have 2010 all this moaning about no cold in the reliable time frame wouldn't happen.

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