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MPG
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Posts posted by MPG
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Agreed! Sometimes I would just like to live in a little bit of ignorance and enjoy the up and down ride of the operational runs.. At the end of the day this forum is hobby for most and not visited by general public.. So do we really need movie spoilers.
Well said.
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Here you go MPG, Yes C.S the GFS 6z shows a very disturbed Wintry/Stormy outlook with deep Lows heading further South dragging in colder air with it from the N/W. Certainly an interesting outlook with lots of features to keep tabs on.. A very 'active' period of weather coming up.
Still can't see it. Not even -5 upper air in place. Anyway all FI.
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Little bit for everyone on the 06z,Heavey Rain,Gales,Heavey snow,and even a channel low giving snow in the South
Pick the bones out of all that.
C.S
Can't see the channel low producing any snow from the 06z output.
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Fergie is a fully fledged, highly qualified professional meteorologist....we are fortunate to have his insight and reflection on Exeter thoughts. The message may not always be what we want to hear but as they say, don't shoot the messenger he is just stating it as it is...carry on Fergie
Actually Fergie is a fully qualified Meteorologist and as such is probably the most qualified person alongside GP to post on here.
It's great having fergies insight from Exeter. This will keep our feet on the ground this winter. Oh and seeing i started it, Fergie is not a fully qualified meteorologist just google or wiki him.
I'm still going with the met anomilies, mild to start the gradually cold into jan and feb.
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Presumably he is a Meteorologist, then? I certainly thought he was...
A biologist
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So what does one have to be in order to be a Fellow of The Royal Meteorological Society, then - a plastic surgeon?
Could well be, but being a meteorologist certainly isn't required!
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As the fergie quote on the previous pages alludes to - its all about probabilities so of course the probability will be a mild winter but I'm not attaching great significance to this - long range accurate forecasting is still a myth IMO !
Yes and remember Fergie is only quoting what someone has told him from a model we don't have access to. Fergie isn't a meteorologist remember!
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Yes the GFS 6z certainly shows a stronger Pm influence into the run, As Low pressure systems take a more Southerly track for the last 1/4 of November. The ECMWF also seems to show this pattern for the same period.
Where's the PV? Not setting up in its usual place so far this winter going by your charts.
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I will never forget the GFS picking up the northerly first in 2009......then bang.
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Unless Ian's post from earlier proves to be inaccurate (and i dont think it will be) any eye candy in FI will remain just that.
Big call Bristle Boy. Its just another model Ian is using, so why should that be right?
Bristle Boy's comment is a prime example of 'discussion killing'. A post from a person giving information from a source not available to members here.
Because Ian has posted that comment, it now means people will be unwilling to discuss the GFS output.
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Steve's working over at TWO!
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We have members on this forum, who give their thoughts regularly, who have just as much knowledge, if not more, as anyone currently employed in the meteorological professional. To infer otherwise is rather condescending and disrespectful I would think
? And do those amateur members (not employed by any professional body) have access to the models the meteorological professionals have?...no. So your point makes no sense.
Members here have posted charts hinting at a potential pattern change to something more seasonable. This makes a good basis for a discussion between members (the whole point of the forum). But then a professional comes along with access to other non-public charts and practically blows any discussion out the window.
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And?
Thought my post was pretty clear Blast.
For all the amateur enthusiasm for a pattern change (me included), the big gun comes up to dampen it.
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Breaking news.....Is the ECM beginning to see it too?? I know some are saying lala land etc...but this is the banter thread....and actually I'm cautiously optimistic for this change to come in at the right timeframe too.....latter half and particularly last 3rd. At least we have somehting different to look out for!!!
BFTP
No chance....Ian F has posted in the model thread, better come back 1st December.....kill joy.
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I thought it was still warming slightly in that area?
Drop off ovet the last few dyas
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Modoki El nino now forming
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All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.
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Officially warmest Nov day on record at 22.6 (?), which beats 1946 (wonder what happened that winter ha). 1941, 1987 and 1978 also reached high temps of around 20 degress in November. 1978 winter famous of course as was '87 although both for different reasons.
Please remind me.....was it November 2009 or 2010 that was also exceptionally mild, but not just on the 1st!!
Why is everyone forgetting?
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I'm surprised nobody refers to Fergie's post
The latest Contingency Planning summary is N-D-J. That GloSea5 output is J-F-M. Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course). But the notion of broadly +ve NAO conditions into winter at least initially has been strongly signalled by the key output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal, EuroSip) for a while now. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84126-winter-201516/page-34#entry3275001
What's uncertain? The mold start or cold flip? Both uncertain in my book.
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Think with this strong El Niño we will see a wet mild Dec Jan which the met office seem confident on at this point in time. And at least it might stop the express and madden posting such garbage every winter
Can you post to where the Met are saying that? That's not what their charts are showing.
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The wonders of altitude. The number of times snow fell here last winter and the absence of it settling was really frustrating, yet only 100m further up and it settled. In fact the Mendip had a few such falls. Maybe any Pm westerlies this year will be better for lower ground too.
I only remember snow actually falling on one occasion in the early morning, that was it last winter (it only settled for an hour or two). You must be mixing up your winters, I only have one period of 'snow' falling in my records. I remember last winter very well, I was saying all along that every winter I see something 'white' falling from the sky, but last winter there was just one occasion. I remember of couple of days with hail falling, giving a covering.
Edit...not day a period of a couple of hours around 6.30am.
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I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year.
What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.
I wouldnt say no to a repeat of last winter either... snowfall on boxing day that lasted 7 days then a cold snowy end to Jan.. a few more days with snow falling in Feb and at the end of March.... maybe a bit more prolonged cold would make it better but last years cold zonal was not to bad for me...
No thanks.
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Yes certainly looks like a mild outlook on todays charts ,some high temp for late oct /early november but i am of the old school in the fact that Mother nature could swing the other way [no guarantee of course ] all very interesting stuff though certainly not boring and plenty to discuss on our forum .
i,m going to take full advantage of our weather as things could change in a few weeks ,cheers
Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.
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I still believe the high will migrate North, ensembles are starting to pick up on this - next few days could be interesting...
Two conflicting posts....anyone else?
Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Going by this post you could of thought there was NO cold potential shown in any chart over the last couple of days and today. The GFS 06 shows a cleaner path to a northerly out break if you ask me.
And again further into FI blocking in the Atlantic and colder conditions into the UK.