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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Not sure about that, focusing on the isobars air sourced from Germany just about scrapes the East Coast, for most of the country it's coming from France. Focusing on the thickness we are getting a direct hit from North Africa, through Spain and France.
  2. Couple of spots of 38C on the zoomed out temps so maybe a 39C. If the low can just hold back 200 miles or so it's record gone.
  3. All of it appears to be high cloud, will just mean hazyness which is why temperatures are so high still.
  4. Perfect. Monday needs to be the day, low pressure too close on Tuesday on most models. If the 20C line can get in place 6 hours or so earlier than shown on the UKMO run the record has a decent chance of going.
  5. 5th July runs went for Sunday, in one week since that run we've been delayed by one day, I really don't see what the big deal is.
  6. That colour scheme for the cloud cover chart has given me a headache.
  7. Yes would need to have a plume pertubations-only mean and see if there is a rain signal there.
  8. Think France/Spain (our source of the heat) and the UK has been much warmer and drier in the run up to this plume than the run up to 2019 plume, will surely count for something.
  9. Do we ever see that in summer? It's not really a time for giant 1060mb high pressures. The more important thing is distance from low pressure and the south is comfortably far way from the neutral line.
  10. Spoke too soon sky is completely hazy now and that's the end of the first heatwave.
  11. 29C, almost zero breeze today and with the UV at level 8 today it's feeling very Mediterranean today. No sign of the dreaded cloud ruining the day so far.
  12. Already 31C in NE England. High cloud will make things hazier later in the day, but would think 33C is pretty much guaranteed, possibly a 34C.
  13. Maybe in Scotland, Southern England is in the same anomaly zone as most of France.
  14. Fantastic looking MOGREPsS, looked like we were getting the worst of both words with delayed heat and a quick removal last night. Good compromise now with less extreme temperatures but hopefully looking good to Tuesday at least.
  15. So the model that now has a reputation of over-estimating temperatures has us hitting 1.7C below the record. As I said, very safe, if this exact run were to come off.
  16. Definitely a shift noticed by pretty much every model now. Delayed heat and quicker clearance. Record very safe with this new set up.
  17. Isn't the grass actually fine for a very long time when it's yellow though. It certainly recovered easily enough by Autumn 2018. As for today pretty much the perfect summer's day. 28C sunny all day with the odd bit of whispy high cloud.
  18. Some but not many going for the peak continuing through Monday. At odds with this morning's MOGREPS where the biggest cluster went for more long lasting heat.
  19. Poor ECM, both delays the heat and kills it early too. Though it has been swinging all over the place, this time yesterday the cut off low merged with the main low to our west.
  20. Well just 7 days away and we have the craziest run yet. 40C for 3 days in a row is unthinkable.
  21. If that chart is still being shown on Tuesday then it's genuinely time for an emergency warning. I've been to Cyprus most summers of my life and the hottest I've ever experienced is 40C.
  22. Has to be said plume is the favoured option on that ensemble run, majority on 19-25!
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