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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Snowy L
    With such a big warming forecast though, surely it's too early jumping to conclusions on how the tropospheric or even the stratospheric geopotential heights will shape up after the warming in 10-14 days time?
  2. Snowy L
    Let's hope FI unreliability works in our favour for once At least the warming is getting into the high res and ECM supports it too.
  3. Snowy L
    Eurasian snow cover rate was awful for October, largely because of the already high snow cover at the start of the month.
  4. Snowy L
    Here's January's from the MetOffice http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html December: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2013.html 1.7c and 2.1c above average. That's as far from the norm as a 1 month constant cold spell is.
  5. Snowy L
    This winter is far from the norm, as evidenced by 2 much warmer than average months.
  6. Snowy L
    Haha this is ridiculous. Best not to believe anything until it gets into the high res output.
  7. Snowy L
    Any idea what's been causing the awful accuracy in the GFS temperature charts? The SSW last year was modeled weeks ago and was pretty much spot on ever since the warming was picked up at 384. GFS underestimating the strength of the vortex?
  8. Snowy L
    Don't be surprised to see the area in the North Atlantic suddenly free up in 300+ FI of the GFS in the next few days though, similar to how last years tropospheric models responded to last years SSW. Too early to get excited but if we get a good downwelling the positioning of the lobes looks brilliant for a Greenland high. That Baffin Bay lobe that has been troubling us all winter is being pushed way west into USA/Canada and more exciting the Siberian lobe is pushed ominously close to Scandi/UK. There's a good downwelling already in this 18z run with much lighter zonal winds at 100mb by the end of the run http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012618&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384
  9. Snowy L
    Upgrade! Clear split as early as t250-300 on this run http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=276
  10. Snowy L
    I know I posted the pressure chart under it. Interestingly the split propagated down fairly quickly on this run with a very near split on the 30hpa charts; http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384
  11. Snowy L
    Looks like we're getting 12z support for the 06z. Temperature charts are pretty much identical to t300 Vortex well and truly split: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360
  12. Snowy L
    Clear split at t276 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012512&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=276 Temperatures looks promising as well
  13. Snowy L
    Ok seriously, what?!? Surely an error?
  14. Snowy L
    East QBO, dropping solar flare and El Nino would be a very nice start to winter next year. Edit: 06z giving us incredible temperature charts by the way. I think it might have picked up on the wave-2 signal
  15. Snowy L
    You just know that shortwave at t+132 is going too ruin everything...
  16. Snowy L
    If wave-2 increase occurs after the wave-1 associated warming hits the North Pole you would think the vortex is finished for winter.
  17. Snowy L
    The start of the warming is coming very close to the high res timeframe of the GFS and will be coming in to the ECM timeframe soon. Hopefully we can see some agreement between the two. So far up to t+240 they both appear to be agreeing, with a small warming in the Russian region not causing too much damage, followed by a weakening of the warming at around t+220-240. With any luck we should see the bigger warming appear on the ECM 240 chart tomorrow or on Wednesday.
  18. Snowy L
    Big warming was picked up days ago with several of the previous runs in the last couple of days going for the warming to reach the North Pole.
  19. Snowy L
    Apparently wishful thinking equals reading a chart correctly. His explanation is awful as well the reason the ECM isn't buying it is because the projected warming hasn't reached t240 yet. I appreciate it would be foolish to be confident of an SSW in 2 weeks but the signs certainly are there for a big warm up in the stratosphere, I don't know how he can deny that. Whether it leads to an SSW or not is a different story.
  20. Snowy L
    A big warming is showing up again and on this run it looks like it manages to get a foothold to the North of the colder air as well, rather than a west vs east setup seen on previous runs. GFS has been consistently showing this for a few days now, looks promising
  21. Snowy L
    Oh god not again.Big difference to the GFS and UKMO.
  22. Snowy L
    Yeah with wave-1 the vortex will just be displaced from the pole. It would be nice to see something similar to last year where wave-2 shortly followed the wave-1-lead displacement to give us a split vortex, but I don't think any short-midterm set ups support any tropospheric-lead wave-2 breaking, as far as I know.
  23. Snowy L
    Here's the image showing the precursors to wave 1 (top pictures) and wave 2 SSWs. As you said the main feature for a wave1-lead SSW is the Siberian High and Aleutian low.
  24. Snowy L
    No idea what the low res is doing, no pressure gradients anywhere over the UK
  25. Snowy L
    That shortwave over Germany is helping to keep the Scandi high North. It might even cut it off from that other High in southern Russia and then we would be in business.
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