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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Snowy L
    I know I posted the pressure chart under it. Interestingly the split propagated down fairly quickly on this run with a very near split on the 30hpa charts; http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384
  2. Snowy L
    Looks like we're getting 12z support for the 06z. Temperature charts are pretty much identical to t300 Vortex well and truly split: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360
  3. Snowy L
    Clear split at t276 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012512&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=276 Temperatures looks promising as well
  4. Snowy L
    Ok seriously, what?!? Surely an error?
  5. Snowy L
    East QBO, dropping solar flare and El Nino would be a very nice start to winter next year. Edit: 06z giving us incredible temperature charts by the way. I think it might have picked up on the wave-2 signal
  6. Snowy L
    You just know that shortwave at t+132 is going too ruin everything...
  7. Snowy L
    If wave-2 increase occurs after the wave-1 associated warming hits the North Pole you would think the vortex is finished for winter.
  8. Snowy L
    The start of the warming is coming very close to the high res timeframe of the GFS and will be coming in to the ECM timeframe soon. Hopefully we can see some agreement between the two. So far up to t+240 they both appear to be agreeing, with a small warming in the Russian region not causing too much damage, followed by a weakening of the warming at around t+220-240. With any luck we should see the bigger warming appear on the ECM 240 chart tomorrow or on Wednesday.
  9. Snowy L
    Big warming was picked up days ago with several of the previous runs in the last couple of days going for the warming to reach the North Pole.
  10. Snowy L
    Apparently wishful thinking equals reading a chart correctly. His explanation is awful as well the reason the ECM isn't buying it is because the projected warming hasn't reached t240 yet. I appreciate it would be foolish to be confident of an SSW in 2 weeks but the signs certainly are there for a big warm up in the stratosphere, I don't know how he can deny that. Whether it leads to an SSW or not is a different story.
  11. Snowy L
    A big warming is showing up again and on this run it looks like it manages to get a foothold to the North of the colder air as well, rather than a west vs east setup seen on previous runs. GFS has been consistently showing this for a few days now, looks promising
  12. Snowy L
    Oh god not again.Big difference to the GFS and UKMO.
  13. Snowy L
    Yeah with wave-1 the vortex will just be displaced from the pole. It would be nice to see something similar to last year where wave-2 shortly followed the wave-1-lead displacement to give us a split vortex, but I don't think any short-midterm set ups support any tropospheric-lead wave-2 breaking, as far as I know.
  14. Snowy L
    Here's the image showing the precursors to wave 1 (top pictures) and wave 2 SSWs. As you said the main feature for a wave1-lead SSW is the Siberian High and Aleutian low.
  15. Snowy L
    No idea what the low res is doing, no pressure gradients anywhere over the UK
  16. Snowy L
    That shortwave over Germany is helping to keep the Scandi high North. It might even cut it off from that other High in southern Russia and then we would be in business.
  17. Snowy L
    Despite the poor outlook, low heights in southern Europe has been a feature in every run of every model. It completely disappeared in the 12z GFS. I'm still not convinced we will get the block and I'm favoring the Atlantic, but there's not a chance the high will sink so far south so quickly like it did on the 12z GFS, low southern Europe heights will keep it in place.
  18. Snowy L
    At least the ECM pushes the low heights into Southern Europe, something that just completely (and imo wrongly) disappeared on the GFS. Though it looks like the next low pressure pushes everything too far east. Will be a great cold spell for central Europe.
  19. Snowy L
    Yes but the ride this winter has been the equivalent of a park slide.
  20. Snowy L
    Low pressure is not well orientated in this run, need the isobars to straighten out on it's leading edge. These last few winters have spoiled us, I've forgotten how frustrating the models can be at times, looks like another cold spell that got away, 3rd time this winter...
  21. Snowy L
    I think it's fair to say we won't see an SSW from this current wave breaking, GFS has backed off completely. Zonal winds have weakened as a result of this event though, and this should make the vortex more vulnerable to splitting when we get the next wave breaking event.
  22. Snowy L
    To be fair I'm sure we'd see the SSW if the GFS went up to T400+
  23. Snowy L
    This paper looks at what happens to the vortex during an SSW, go to the bottom of page 8 for what happens during a vortex-split (what we could be seeing in a few weeks): http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2365.1 The common theme with splits seems to be that the vortex usually splits to similar locations - a large segment over Siberia and a smaller one over Hudson Bay - Canada. I'm sure this was the case in last winter's split too, and this was despite the fact that the 2 warmings happened over Siberia and then Northeast Canada. So it doesn't look like the location of a warming influences where a lobe of the vortex will go to.
  24. Snowy L
    Just a guess but could the cold signal be because of tropospheric precursors to an SSW? If I remember right a strong scandi/siberian high, which is what we are seeing on the charts, is a known precursor for both wave-1 and wave-2 lead SSWs, particularly wave-1.
  25. Snowy L
    Wow that's a big improvement to the earlier charts today. That second warming is back (makes sense seeing as we have both wave-1 and wave-2 breaking going on) and that is very close to becoming a decent minor warming at least.
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