[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s get some cross model agreement first before getting too excited tomorrow morning hopefully with ECM!

As much as I love too to get hyped over a Easterly 2.0 that actually happens but before it happens we need to get cross model agreement/trend towards this 

I don't think we would want a huge disappointment again won't we 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

And if you just rotate your screen 10 degrees to the right the PV has become a squirrel 

Sounds familiar

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ECM looking nice at t96

It's the ECM in disguise

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Hopefully folk will be a bit more cautious this time and wait until the beast from the east style charts many crave get below t96 as was proved last week when mass disappointment erupted when it all downgraded.

To be fair to some there was some what of agreement between the models then it all went downhill to make long story short 

Of course they could appear again soon but who knows 

I would never get hype unless they was cross model agreement

Lets see the next few models to see if the GFS is on to something 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Big push west of scandi high on gfs 06z at just 96 hours!!

Can you show chart please ? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

ECM "you expecting a northerly?"

Nah why don't you have some lovely mild lush instead

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

ECM rolling out now?

Let's see what's in store

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All-

Im really suprised that noone has picked up on the UKMO 144-

Heights to the NE & a diving jet usually spells Easterly ( around 168 )

Hopefully this Easterly will second lucky but meh who knows 

Time is running out for a cold spell unfortunately we better start getting luck soon 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

17 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

These threads have been dead since they split them. Hard to follow anything.

Have to agree with this as a few days even it was a fair bit busier but now it's like ermmmm empty ? Not to mention it's confusing knowing the post where

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

You're kidding me right ? We're back to looking at FI land again which over 95% never comes close... Time is nearly up for this winter 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Has there been any noteworthy news on GFS/ICON?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Better Atlantic ridging from icon 18z.

We shall soon find if it's enough which I don't think will be the case unfortunately

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

47 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is a very encouraging sign. The updated fax chart for Tuesday is more amplified in the Atlantic than the previous two charts for the same day. Far sharper with the US low. 

But what does this mean ?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Pretty much game set and match on the ukmo!!and also we shall be looking at another week.or so of winter eaten away and thats of anything wintry actually shows up!!

Just because the BFTE isn't happening doesn't mean it won't snow per Tuesday event and next week 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Before we say it's game over ? Is it not best to see what the ECM does this weekend before it's really over ?

A fair bit of bad moods around this morning they I can understand why since there was a heaven of cold just to be sent to below

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

It seems we are having quite a wobble with the models

Gone is the beast from the east or the cold spell which brought back the memories of yesteryear

Now depending on which models you are looking at GFS/UKMO still show a decent cold spell but not what it showed a few days ago 

ECM is pretty much worse with just a tap and you will miss it 

However there is still time till it's a done deal is it not ?

Give it to this weekend before making a decision if it's get better or worse the weather will do what it wants 

End of story

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Great Run From The GFS and a fair improvement on the GFSP so far as we speak 

However I'm still not getting excited for two reasons

Once it's in very reliable timeframe

Two The ECM has to come on board since the GFS has been not so great lately.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Brilliant ecm!!could potentialyy be snowier than gfs funnily enough!and with a slack flow could be an absolute freezer!

Unfortunately I don't see that it's just about enough that it doesn't go all hay wire intact by 144 less cold air trying to take back the UK from the SW

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ECM is always VERY important.  It’s the Gold Standard.

No question about it in just a hours time we see either it sticking to its guns or joins some if not to a flatter pattern

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not this time from the icon.  onto the GFS  12z

Can you explain please ?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I would still urge to be careful at the moment as some models are still not supporting the idea of "severe cold" to put it ...

Let's hope we don't have a huge disappointment due to ramping 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

After a somewhat awful morning it seems by nights end it has become great !

Knowing our luck it will go down a bit overnight and back to where we are now this time tomorrow?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade

Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it