[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Colder uppers further west on ICON 18z vs 12z with precipitation in the same place

Better then nothing I suppose might make a bit of difference for some lucky people

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

A super ECM tonight ! Also seems now there quite the fair high expectations now but let's get the others models to support the ECM before and if we get disappointed 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

To be fair he does have a point there has been a few times this winter with some events (northerly's) that have been downgraded to deletion 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Regarding the EC46 is this temperature wise ?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Flipping heck cornwall is more in the fun then London ...it won't happen through

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am pretty certain thats a snow event across england between 96 -120 hour ecm!

Can't see that happening 

More like a minor event for northern England

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM is very cold even by Friday only 1-2C in London hovering around freezing across much of country.

Typical that it's mild in the SW especially Cornwall

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I really don’t understand all the negative posts in here when you have charts like this.

Maybe because it's nearly always in FI?

As been the case this winter we seen charts like this to either to go into the tunnel or upon reliable it's downgraded

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Is it me or I am just looking at different charts ? All I'm seeing is a topper ? Colder for like a few days ?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

So it seems the ICON is further west again which brings me to this with the the high uncertainty 

Is it possible that the Atlantic does not break through ?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Although a good ECM to start with but by the weekend it brings in mild air 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I don't really see the excitement all of the sudden either the GFS or UKMO is going to be right and you have a think something will go down 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Quiet on here considering the massive 12z runs that are about to come out that are going to exterminate the mild dross to smithereens! ICON already has shown us how quickly things are changing with cold upgrading and a decent undercut. 

FI once again is at +T96! 

I believe they should start shortly?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

24 minutes ago, kumquat said:

regrading or regarding? Could be a crucial distinction in this context.

Sorry just noticed that spelling mistake changed it now

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

A big switch back to cold from MOGREPS ens overnight & 'more' support for the ECM operational from the EPS ( more than yesterday )

In these scenarios the euros are always odds on favourites to be correct & the GFS come following about a day late ( & dollar short ) however of course once it a blue moon it could be correct-

EPS has 11cm as the max snow depth for london next week however the mean was probably nearer 3cm.

I think we still have another 24 / 48 hours of drama- just to add to the drama of the last 2 days-

What with the scandal high & all that tweetgate last night I need to sit down.....

Hopefully we start to see this from the GFS and so on 

 

Does anyone know John Hammond website as there was a email sent out regarding the SSW?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Unfortunately even with these western correction (GFS) it's too little too late and even through its just like a near perfect copy of the ECM/UKMO a few days ago 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Ouch the few comments saids it all about the GFS unfortunately but most likely was going to and has somewhat gone with the UKMO

Though there is still time for it to change but not looking bright in that respect

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Also wondering what the GFS P will show tonight too personally I think the ECM regarding the outcome will make the other models follow suit 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Although that GFS and GEM are better generally through what worries me is the UKMO has back tracked 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Looks like quite a major ECM tonight

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 so close with deep easterlies

We need about ~2/300 miles out of the continent...

Can you see the models pushed the Atlantic back/stronger Scandinavian ridge/high or a cold easterly that makes to the UK ?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Seems GFS/ICON/UKMO are generally better although it's somewhat a low possibly of it becoming like the runs a few days ago ? Middle Ground 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

ECM is at least trying to give it a try 

But it seems were in a losing battle.... Again

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

We seem to quite in a bit of a state this morning

There's no doubt about it that overnight models have trended towards a more unsettled and near avg temps compared to a cold outlook

We shouldn't just give up just because of overnight let's see what today brings out before making a outlook 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Hmmmmm is it because we are binning the GFS is because it's not what we want