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Skullzrulerz

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Posts posted by Skullzrulerz

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

    7D46A640-34A3-42F6-9866-A5BF03BD11B3.thumb.gif.71fca1975ec08b3e60602dad54c80fc6.gif
    1FBF1A2D-DD91-48E2-9325-0343A982AA3A.thumb.gif.7790692d83b8f53ad2fe056283f88b02.gif

    Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

    55998D09-CFB0-4631-B1A1-ACA99EF1F56E.thumb.png.77c191a638bf5625c4d32562360ac421.png
     

    Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

    That sounds like Winter to me. 

    You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last 

    Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures 

    A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Skullzrulerz

    In general GFS is only slightly better then last night but it's miles away from what showing the last few days... 

    It's either pushed back further or has been wiped out

    It's hard to believe overnight we're gone from a harsh cold spell to a topper but it was somewhat expected with seasonal forecasts mostly stating a cold spell around mid month

    Unless things start changing soon I can't see anything noteworthy yet

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Skullzrulerz

    So it seems that the rogue model was right unfortunately as both ECM/GFS has moved towards it 

    You would of thought overnight judging by some of the reaction we was getting mild southwest weather with a Barret for measure

    So thankfully there's still a bit of time for things to change mild or cold point of view 

    Also to note that most of the seasonal weather only noted that it was going to be a cold outbreak and some snow for the north and nothing more 

     

     

     

    Model output discussion - late November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    That's a nice chart for December 11th, but I wouldn't quite want it to pan out like that. The heaviest of the precip stays out in the channel and it moves through extremely fast, so it wouldn't give any meaningful accumulations.

    accprecip24_20191202_12_222.thumb.jpg.700dc77df94daac09bf6de67e146f7d3.jpg

    It's academic, of course, but still nice to see!

    At least cornwall hits the jackpot! About time we see a decent snow event down here ;)

    A Incredible GFS 12z run though if only it could happen...hopefully it could be a start of a trend? 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - late November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I see what you are saying, but I don't see a half way house, going forward I absolutely see the same house but just at different times....on different models... 

    Of course the ECM may be truly right but as we seen in many cases we trend to get something in the middle just like the current spell were in now 

    I just think it's far too out and needs to be in the short term before we start to get a tad excited

    But we shall see

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - late November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

    That’s exactly how people feel reading the ramping and pseudo science posted on here sometimes. When it’s showing what people want in FI model X is great at sniffing out these situations, when it all changes then people talking about how it’s still all to play for and anything could change. We all know that when the models move away from a cold solution it’s far far more likely to verify than the eye candy charts that get posted on here all the time.

    After seeing the last few days here I have also have to agree with this statement personnely anythings besides a short lived northerly around the end of the month/into December is what were going to get 

    Not to help that there's support for +NAO for next month doesn't help matters...

    It hasn't helped with a few that with biased views or this model is "in the bin" when it's not showing what they want 

    I think I sit on the side lines for the now and hope we might just get lucky with a cold spell

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - late November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Awaiting the 6z is unreliable cannon fodder posts unfortunately what this shows is very plausible we’ve seen this many times over the years with lows phasing together over the Atlantic. Not saying it will happen but I’d lean more towards that than a massive Greeny ridge.

    739CEC58-9EAD-4788-9627-CBF5D75E41FA.png

    Seen a lot of "bin" posts as of late 

    I do think however more runs are needed as never know this could be right ?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Actually swfc in NW parlance it's known as 'hypers leap' very often followed by the 'downgrade trip'

    I have to agree with this unfortunately as only from one set of runs this morning I do think it's a bit hyped up in here 

    You need to near cross model agreement before anything else or some folk are going to be dispointed

    Not to mention it's somewhat in the median/long term a lot of things can change for the better or worse 

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - early October

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Majority of the time GFS will back down in a stand off m8.

    Hopes of a settled cold bonfire weekend seem to be evaporating.

    I did express my concern about this ruddy low in the Atlantic yesterday

     

    And this has sadly happened in most cases GFS backs down and goes along the lines of the ECM 

    As I said if the ECM is showing the cold charts you definitely have got a increased chance of it coming off 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - early October

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

    GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

    Absolutely true but don't forget the ECM/ukmo has also stuck to there guns with more or less mild and unsettled 

    I do think we need to keep our hopes somewhat low due to fact that most of these charts are over a week out at best and not to mention it will change every time till the somewhat reliable timeframe 

    Personnely I would rather see the ECM showing the cold charts not the gfs as last year it just didn't deliver

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