[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

12 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

I do have to agree with you I totally understand people's excitement though we must be realistic any snow showers will be confined to hills and Scotland if any 

There's no doubt it will get colder but I don't think it's going to get cold enough for lowland snowfall 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

06z Icon has thrown the towel in at 84hrs. Don't blame it lol . 

And this is exactly why I said don't get your hopes up 

Sadly those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat It.

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

I was wondering the same thing 

Personally it's just not cold enough and snow will be confined to Scotland and Northern England and some hills 

Though it is good that cold air does get entrenched for a time so possibility of further snow chances are there 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS, ECM and GEM at T240:

GFS the least amplified upstream, both ECM and GEM look more amplified but quite different in detail.  Prefer ECM solution from the positioning of the Euro trough.  Aleutian low, Russian high combo maintained so hopefully pressure put on the strat vortex, but it is spinning fast so will take something to break it down.  

As has been the case most of the time you would expect a half way house between the GFS/ECM

I'm keeping my hope's very low at the moment as we have seen the last few years how so promising it is and it falls apart just a day or two

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

20 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Not as good as previous runs.

It is not Frosty enough for you ?

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Can we get away from this cold air myth. We have the ECM showing a possible snow event this Friday.

We do not need -10c 850s for snow. Yes, it is great when they come along but you can get snow from 0c 850s under the right synoptic conditions.

Nobody is forecasting 100cm of snow, just commenting on the runs and continued build up of higher pressure in the Greenland locale.

Fair enough let's hope you are correct then

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

06z Mean still heading for greenland > moreso than 00z

That's great news for fans that want some Cold Rain 

Sadly there is not enough cold air to tap into

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

I would urgently be very careful comparing tonight's and as well the last few days of model runs to 2010... 

You will be very disappointed if else the reality is most (what people are looking for) is still out in "fantasyland"

Though next week will be chiller I can not see any signs of cold or anything to do with snowfall just yet if any it will be resorted to Scotland 

[Hurricane Iota]

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.]

Just now, abbie123 said:

No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

 

Does this model supposedly run into November/December?

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

22 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Casper, Wyoming

 

Wow I'm so jealous

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Would it be more appropriate to have a thread regarding the California Fires?

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21]

You can already see it coming it's bound to be England will miss again XD

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer..I remember when this used to be a hot topic?..  

Think that's a record isn't it ? 

Me I like the cool weather but I definitely take it settled

Hoepfully we can one last hot spell before it's too late 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

45 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

After a brief settled spell the ECM introduces the first -4c of the season to the UK

Good to see you back! 

The cold hunt is on

[Hurricane Laura]

2 minutes ago, MAF said:

 that makes it cat 5 and catastrophic which could mean tomorrows headlines will be about loss of life and major disaster 

Even if it doesn't it will b catastrophic either way 

It's going to be a very close call 

[Hurricane Laura]

4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

https://livestormchasing.com/map  *Live Storm Chasing, not media, sorry.  Watching Brad Arnold atm, he has sound on and you can hear him occasionally talking to the other chasers.  He's heading out of the main area to Port Arthur along with a bunch of other chasers.

Ah thank you

[Hurricane Laura]

1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

Watching Live storm media and you know it's bad when all the Stormchasers are moving AWAY from the main impact area...

Can i ask the link to the website please?

[Hurricane Laura]

According to Jeff Piotrowski there have been 911 calls from the Louisiana coast from chasers that are TRAPPED IN THEIR VEHICLES

 

[Hurricane Laura]

SPECIAL BULLETIN FROM THE OFFICE OF THE WEATHER DIRECTOR
13L - Hurricane Laura

The purpose of this bulletin is to highlight the extreme threat that Laura poses to Texas and Louisiana. 

Storm surge: Expect storm surge extending up to 30 miles inland and up to 9 feet above ground level... the worst flooding will occur along the shoreline...

Rainfall: Expect rainfall exceeding 10 inches around the zone where the eye moves ashore with lesser amounts fanning outward. 

Winds: Expect very destructive winds around 1-3 miles inland as the storm moves ashore. Hurricane-force winds will occur over a large area, but the most destructive winds are usually confined to a smaller region.

Forecast:

Current intensity... 120 knots (140 mph)
2100Z... 130 knots (150 mph)
0000Z... 135 knots  (155 mph)
LANDFALL... 135 knots (155 mph)

*NOTE THAT THIS IS MY FORECAST, NOT THE OFFICIAL NHC ONE.

Revised at 1749Z for updated intensity

[Hurricane Laura]

 

[Hurricane Laura]

How long till landfall?

[Hurricane Laura]

Seems to be undergoing a "Merger EWRC"?

[Hurricane Laura]

As for being Category 5 seems unlikely but I won't rule it out but it most likely but a Category 4 

From what I heard it's strengthening ahead of forecast?

[Hurricane Laura]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Exrapolated is an estimate before the dropsonde data gives an accurate reading.

In this case is was a little way out> but we have 961MB.

Which is 7MB down from the 968MB I posted earlier.

Exceptional pressure drop across such a short space of time. - The hurricane is borderline CAT 3 but it wont be long before the winds catch up.

The next 12 hours will be crucial.

 

Many thanks