Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Skullzrulerz

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,069

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Skullzrulerz

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, dragan said:

    I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. 

    It was clear as day this would happen even with the northern hemisphere profile the issue is the lack of cold air 

    You don't need to be expert to figure this one out

    Any postive takes?

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Skullzrulerz
    Spelling

    56 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Its a 4 day warm up as the patter pushes east for a few days. Its perfectly normal in any winter to have these periods and is essential. Its this warm up thats driving more hot air into the northern latitudes to encourage strat disruption down the line. Stop being pessimistic dude...

    And unfortunately these are the type of comments (nothing against you @Scott Ingham that discourages some users not to use the thread anymore 

    I don't see nothing wrong with looking for a warm and dry outlook then there is to a cold and snowy outlook ? I'm not sure why people can't respect people's others liking of the weather and each to their own 

    Before the 12z outputs start at current there seems to be a general trend of turning milder for a time and then perhaps a dry period which could be quite frosty sure it's not a winter wonderland but to the last few winters we had it's a lot better then staying indoors while someone does a rain dance 

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    Still the pv will be weaker than average so for how long time is the question.

    It won't matter if we can't get the other blocks in place 

    We could still have a strong pv and have a decent cold spell

    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Well it may be a case of kissing a few frogs to find the prince.

    I'll put up with any amount of rain if we can secure a January SSW

    Could very well be but then we have the issue of time and a ssw isn't guarantee to work in our favour if it happens 

     

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? The most I am expecting is a bit of wet snow at best. certainly not expecting anything to settle. 
     

    If it was 0 degrees or so, then yes, I’d be more excited. But it looks like it’ll just be a wet, cold end to the day. 

    You're definitely right in that regard 

    It is nice to have a bit of snowfall but unfortunately most will be on the wrong end of marginal even by going by how active this thread has been today per yesterday 

    It's been the case people get excited over a one set of runs and then you're disappointed then you have a group of people "hyping" said runs

    Hopefully once we got a cold pool in place we will be in a better position

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ICON brings 2-3cm to NW kent the 4-5cm up in suffolk & cambs -

    I do however like the 96 chart, very rare to see the uk under low heights & stationary air.

    COLD!

    375A09E6-1E12-4825-9EA9-9DD8493BD199.thumb.jpeg.91350cda63e5526ab525ff75a5e6e9e4.jpeg

    If you're really that excited for cold rain and a bit of sleet go for it

    And as several people have already said unfortunately there have been some concern that there no signs of a Greenland high and there's only so much you can do from that before eventually going back to that norm 

    On the plus side it's good to see that they may be some promise for a Scandinavian high later on but it's in Fantasy land 

    Unless it's gets closer to the reliable timeframe there's no point in looking

     

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

    Wow, lots of people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Elevation will be key. Anyone else will have transient, wet stuff in amongst the rain. 

    Not sure if you seen the ECM snow charts I think it's inaccurate 

    It's own a league on its own in regards to its snowfall and thinks that wet rain is snow

    Anything to keep people's hopes up though!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    12 GFS heads towards the ECM for the SE with a westerly correction & larger plume of PPN > you also see some wintryness appearing- not quite on this run but a good start with 42 hours to go

    FEBB851A-C6F1-4900-9F0D-75752349BCCA.thumb.png.32d673a3b34929e41c795636e1ac61ad.png64E39BB2-24E5-4BF1-887F-E4318B3DFBC7.thumb.png.3a74db545e2ca2e7dcbc9ed2eb7088e6.png

    Looks like the Far South west could see a chance of snowfall if else 

    Though of course we can't favour over one or the other just because it's more snowfall etc 

    One model will prove to be right 

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

    Best not to expect anything really - flakes falling that is, a few maybe surprised, it is the UK after all.

    It's unfortunate that sadly in basic terms it's just not cold enough for widespread snowfall on the majority of models 

    It's been hyped as that though 

    Would definitely liked to be proved wrong and see some amazing snowfall in the coming days 

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, snowking said:

    I think both the models and quite a lot of people in here are overplaying snowfall potential on lower ground - although admittedly we don't get to see the key parameters for some of them that determine the rainfall/snowfall boundary.

    But if, for example, the Euro4 is anywhere close to the mark:

    image.thumb.png.f3ec4dd1608fa9ff53ae8e5b6adb8637.png

    Then away from higher ground, there is little prospect of any snow.

    Looking at the GFS-derived NMM, we see a similar picture:

    image.thumb.png.b2dbcd40653bf9ddf0da2f4db967da69.png

    It's not until precipitation reaches the uplands of Northern England/Scotland that we start to see any appreciable snowfall:

    image.thumb.png.9cde6ac06b1ed308e6f853694d484c38.png

     

    As previously stated we don't get to see the DP's (or even better, the Wet Bulb Freezing Level) for the ECM, but unless it is drastically different to much of the rest of the output, I struggle to see much in the way of snow below at least 200m.

    That said, we're a few days away - time for some improvements still

    It's always best to keep you're expectations low especially with the uncertainty 

    I know where I'm placing my bets too...

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...