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Skullzrulerz

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    Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I certainly wouldn't call you a bad person for wanting a Madden winter, i'd like to witness it myself but my point is that it would be a killer.Although I agree with you that probably more people die from the heat than the cold it is a much less costly exercise to be comfortable in a warm environment than it is in cold.Usually shade and plenty of water will do and in the UK these are both cheap and easy to get hold off but trying to keep warm in bitter cold conditions is, at best a costly exercise and often beyond the means of some people.Add to that, slips and falls occur more in icy conditions as do road accidents and the balance tips towards a lot of deaths and pressure on the NHS much more in a cold winter than it would in a hot summer.Part of me still wants it to come off though although I think the chances are slim.

    james madden is Accuracy is very good at points he known that a mild spell was going to happen next week.We have to wait and see we could see a winter of are lifetime+ or just a boring old hot winter.

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Latest from Gibby strong south westerly winds developing next week with above average temperatures and rain

     

    Good morning folks. From a chilly West Country this morning comes today's report on the midnight outputs supplied by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 11th 2013.

    All models continue the pattern as before with a cold and strong NE flow over Southern Britain and High pressure to the North ensuring much lighter winds in the North with brighter skies. The South and East of England remain at risk of outbreaks of rain at times lasting through today and the weekend before dying out and becoming restricted to the far East by Monday. Elsewhere the dry conditions in the North are shown to extend further South for a time early next week before all models show a freshening South and SW flow taking us into the start of what looks to be a milder and wet spell.

     

    GFS starts this process on Tuesday with all areas under mild Atlantic South-westerlies by midweek with a trough carrying a spell of rain transferring NE across all areas introducing this theme. Later in the week the attendant depression out to the NW sinks South and East closer in towards the UK bringing further spells of rain or showers across all areas but maintaining mild and breezy weather. This windy and wet theme continues for a time in part 2 of the run with the North seeing an incursion of colder conditions for a time before High pressure brings quieter and Autumnal conditions late in the run with temperatures easing back towards normal.

     

    UKMO today also shows wet and windy SW winds over all areas by the middle of the week with a depression to the NW. Temperatures would become mild for most, especially in any brighter spells which develop in the sheltered East.

     

    GEM for the third time shows an ex-tropical storm down to the SW at the end of the run threatening the UK while before that happens a spell of sustained wet and windy conditions in association with a succession of Lows and fronts move NE across the UK in strong SW winds and temperatures generally on the mild side of average.

     

    NAVGEM too joins the set in bringing milder Atlantic winds across the UK through the middle of next week with unsettled, wet and windy weather strengthening it's grip over the UK by the weekend as Low pressure edges in closer to the UK from the West and NW.

     

    ECM too shows a broad Westerly or South-westerly pattern developing late next week with spells of rain mixed with a short drier spell in the South to start next weekend. Temperatures in the South will be largely mild while the North may see colder conditions at times. The run ends with a deep Low to the NW and a strong but very mild SW flow with rain straddling the UK on a wavering cold front lying somewhere over the mainland.

     

    The GFS Ensembles show a typical Autumn wet period coming up with this weekends rather cold and potentially wet conditions in the South-east giving way to more SW based weather with above average uppers but offset by spells of rain at times in strong winds.

     

    The Jet Stream shows the flow arched over the UK well North of the UK currently. This arm weakens and dissolves away early next week at the expense of a new arm travelling across the Atlantic towards the UK where it undulates over and to the South over the rest of the period.

     

    In Summary the weather is set to become more typically Autumnal nationwide. After a few more days of quiet weather in the North and cloudy and cool weather in the South with some rain it looks like all areas will develop strong SW winds and spells of rain along with above average temperatures from the middle of next week. The rain will be heaviest in the North and West but all areas look likely to see some heavy rain with just short drier spells under transient ridges when it could become briefly rather colder at times in the far North.

     

    http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

    :( Crying lol.

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