timeless

is it just me or are there issues with the forecasts? lm looking at them and not sure if the data is loading correctly. have attached what l see. (FYI lm looking at the Hereford forecast page)

one thing thats confusing me personally, looking at the GFS as the forecast pages, seems to suggest (GFS wise) that the south west and the west midlands would be in line in the morning (hereford has a 52% possibility at the moment for friday) however the forecast pages push the possibilities towards mid morning/afternoon.. granted lve no major clue on how to read most models, but the GFS cape/storm forecast seem to suggest (at this second at least) that instability on those two models moves away to the south east of the country.

FYI, regarding Estofex it seems they are updating their servers OS, tho thats about all lve heard... seems they might be having issues getting everything just just right (information sourced from their Facebook page).

please hold off on the rain.. roof leak getting worse :/ they cancelled yesterday due to rain, today and by the looks of it tomorrow will be cancelled as well due to rain =_= the kitchen is becoming a mess... really dont need any more storms to make it worse

just hope it doesnt rain here again in hereford.. roof started leaking last night around the kitchen light and the kitchen is rather wet... told my mother more than once not to try and turn the light and and the first thing she does is turn the kitchen light on despite the light not working for a couple of weeks and needing a new strobe light we havent gotten around to getting :/

been looking at the storm forecasts (specifically here http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-04-15 ) and its suggesting low probabilty for hereford tomorrow, meteox forecats seem to be suggesting nothing and as l said, here seems to show possibilities furher south, its kinda confusing. even more so considering lve seen the words "settled" within the UKMO forcasts with no mention at all at possible storms in the west midlands regional forecats. ld prefer settled and cool over anything else, not a fan of thunderstorms or summer :/

wasnt as bad as l was expecting, 62mph winds here in hereford.. tho it didnt sound like it... l guess the bin men had their job cut out for them today as its recycling day today.. my guess is sacks were blown everywhere considering my neighbours wheelie bin went walkies (or should l say "took flying lessions" since it ended up scaling 2 fences and was found an estate over). also a friends garden in kington was pretty much totally devistated, they still havent found their cloths line.

looks like we are in for one hell of a cold snap, that or the forecasts have gone kaput again as its showing a steady -50c (must have done it after 6pm friday as l checked after 6 and it seemed ok before the midnight update).

getting the following error on all forecasts pages: An Error Has Occurred: Please try the refresh button or the back button on your browser and try again. still seems l can use the GFS charts but everything else forecast related seems to give off an error.

by the looks of it it seems to be this page: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wist;sess= the 7 days forecast only give storm potential of 15% but the will it thunder page says 32% (lm looking at the hereford forecast btw), l looked just after last nights update and also after this mornings and it doesnt seem to match data.

l think the data is messing up again, looking at the "will it" pages and it says 32% for today and tomorrow for storm risk however its showing different information for tomorrow.

lm getting the same issue as the user above, even your link gives off similar data, tho lm trying to load hereford forecasts.

whats the potential for thunder for hereford thursday? reason l ask is because currently the UKMO seems to suggest possibilities for today as well as the next couple of days. however from the looks of the GFS storm forecasts it looks like a very low probability. not to mention for today estofex seems to only cover Carmarthen and the tip of the south west.. or are there other factors that lm unaware of? bare in mind lm a relative newbie to all this and lve only really taken an interest in convective weather due to running sensitive computer equipment, it gives me an idea when l should disconnect it for pending thunderstorms.

l noticed that as well, in fact l dont believe any of the shown gfs models have changed since tuesday as nothing has changed in the outputs.

but the storm forecasts that the will it thunder page uses l assume is still NMM and l guess the GFS-P its kinda like NMM but gives a bit more resolution compared to the normal GFS.

just seen the update notice on the GFS page, are you starting to use NMM models on the new updated version? reason l ask is the significant differences in whats forecast. in fact lve just compared the results for friday and there are pretty huge variations in the storm forecast for friday between the GFS and the GFS-P viewer on both the cape and storm forecast model, for example on the GFS model page it doesnt show my area covered where as the GFS-P does have my area and a chunk of the west midlands covered, even the cape models seem very different.

so l guess given the above information, l kinda wonder how valid the GFS are. dont get me wrong its been interesting learning a little. but the difference between the GFS and NMM going by how wildly the numbers differ seems to make me wonder the point of the GFS given that from what lve seen over the past few weeks that there have been times where potential has been high on the areas you have used NMM where as the GFS has always showed low probability.. its really added to my confusion (which l must admit is somewhat clearer now l know two different models are used, but the fluctuations between the models still weirds me out considering the huge differences in potential some days).

thanks for the clarification, however it does still confuse me why two different variables are used.. to be more specific the storm forecast model seems to use a somewhat similar way to gather storm potential into percentages, and since you use a similar system to work out possibility elsewhere it kinda throws me off that you wouldnt use the higher res model for the storm forecast.. that said l was kind of confused a few days ago at the high possibility given to possible storms despite there being no convective cloud being forecast (ld always assumed you need convective cloud for storms to happen).

lm to understand that they are released every 4 hours? and pages like the storm forecast/will it thunder pages are every 6 hours... was just wondering if there was any possibility of some sort of timer basically telling us when the next run will be released. on a completely unrelated subject the storm forecast map seems pretty confusing, the will it thunder/storm forecasts sometimes give higher numbers than the storm forecast map seems to suggest.. a good example would be that currently its suggesting a 42% chance (earlier it was 52%) yet when looking at the storm forecast map at most it suggests 20%, that said saturday is just as strange for suggesting 32% for the afternoon and if lm reading it right there seems even less possibility there.

news to me, havent heard about any power outages myself.

l was just looking at the charts for saturday, the will it thunder page and the storm forecast page seem to be giving the herefordshire area a 52% chance between 6 and 9pm (at this second) however lve looked twice and if lm reading the storm forecast chart/UK Cape charts correctly then lm pretty confused at how that percentage was worked out.. especially considering 40% on the storm forecast seems as high as its possibly projected.

just curious as to when any activity will likely calm down given that something happens.

me miss thunder? never lol, granted l do like seeing it.. but when lm at home lve got allot of sensitive computer equipment which is why l took an interest in how to get an idea of potential so l had warning of a storm possibly coming my way.. tbh l could use a good nights sleep havent slept properly for a few days now due to possibilities want a good long spell of non-thundery weather to recharge the batteries.

looking forward to this thundery weather leaving us, its getting tiring now. seems most of the last few thunder events seem to be sticking towards the coastal areas, wonder if thats going to be the typical setup of the storms until next spring/summer when the prime season comes up? that said earlier MetO seemed to have the whole of wales under thunder symbols, l thought they were predicting some sort of apocalypse..then again their forecasts have been abysmal today, was supposed to be dry all day, had rain most of it, in fact we have had the complete opposite of whatever symbol was on their forecast page.. heres hoping for some settled weather and some frosty weather tho snow would be nice since we are coming up to christmas.

been looking at the GFS over the past few and l dunno whether its coming or going, one day its clear the next we have the above just wish the weather would settle, we have had enough thunder this year, l want snow.