timeless

MetO still showing quite a few thunder symbols in the west over the next but still doesnt have any mention in their forecasts about any storms which is surprising especially since Aberystwyth along with others at the time l looked had the symbol over them for quite a few hours.

nothing mentioned on MetO for tomorrow or next week, saw quite a few thunder symbols between monday and thursday but there is nothing mentioned for the West Midlands forecast.

just curious about the potential for thunderstorms this week, the storm forecast page has started to confuse me as it doesnt seem to match what l see on the gfs lve seen, then again lm not the most knowledgeable as lm still picking things up as l go along, however dont thunderstorms require "convective" cloud? as the storm forecast page shows 0% convective cloud for my area and its gone up to 52% possibility of storm overnight.

been looking at the will it thunder pages and the GFS and it doesnt seem to make much sense, the LI for tuesday night doesnt look anything special (at least not by the charts) and same with wednesday yet there seems to be a higher percentage possibility considering that fact on at least a couple of time on the storm forecast page it shows 0% convective cloud which lm sure storms need.

are you sure? just been generally dry and grey day in herefordshire tho there was a few mins of light rain which has already dried up. a far cry from the percentage of storm possibility given to this area. then again l suppose its likely to be quieter given we are going into the winter months soon.

looks like the met office has stopped tracking Gonzalo, had been following its trajectory for a few days but its been removed now.

l wouldnt say lm asking the weather to settle, more asking the weather to stop being convective, ld be so much happier not having to worry about thunderstorms while lm out and about.. nothing more annoying than coming home to a friend computer :/

been reading that the weather is supposed to settle down mid month, however if lm reading certain models right things could get annoying (or in the case of some here "interesting") again later next week, now granted anything over 5 days can be hard to predict but l was wondering if there is a likelyhood of the weather settling down soon for a good period of time.. and by settling down l mean lack of thundery activitiy as l dont mind a little wind and rain.. its the potential electrical activity that lm finding somewhat annoying.

still no mention of thunder on the UKMO for the 5 day regional text forecast (west midlands), tho the 6-30day forecast does mention the potential of it on friday, kinda weird considering they pegged thunder symbols over here for at least a couple of possible storms.

lm assuming by that statement (at least in your personal opinion based on the charts) that they are likely to more more widespread?

considering all the thunder symbols all over wales over the next few lm surprised there isnt any mention of thunder on the UKMO forecasts.

now lm extremely confused, the Met Office has completely remvoed thunder from the forecast.. all it says is heavy rain for the west midlands. lm confused.

that depends on if you need to use the computer to work, its how l make my money and the more its off the less money l make got quite a few jobs to finish over the next few days.. tho lm sure last time there was no direct strikes l lost an xbox (no idea what happened it wouldnt even red ring lol) still at least l can track storms using radar which will hopefully give me some warning tho lm hoping nothing comes my way tomorrow.. got allot of things to do.

lve been taking a gander at the GFS, and am just hoping nothing comes up as far as the west midlands.. havent got the cash to keep on replacing things like surge protectors and computer parts. would much rather things go further east, but for some reason things seem to be preferring the west recently..

how likely is something happening sunday/monday? looks like some annoying possibilities.. last week l lost a surge protector which was pretty annoying.

just wanted peoples opinion, looking at the charts things look more settled today (for my region at least).. l was wondering what the potential for thunderstorms for hereford (west midlands) would be today, just got my system back online and want to know if anything is expected today because the regional forecast suggests possibility but the models lve seen on the gfs page seem to suggest things will be quieter.

l assume its going to be similar for saturday if the ouputs dont deviate too much? tho from what lve seen things start clearing up from saturday onwards. lm assumung at least by the current GFS here that this annoying thundery weather should move on and give us a more settled picture where thundery weather is conserned.

lm just curious, are the probabilities based on previous GFS runs? or current ones? reason lm curious is other sites which l view GFS outputs at seem to show different potention along with charts lve looked at here which makes me wonder if when you work out the percentages of possibility of thunderstorms that you derive the potential based on the previous run rather than the current one.

thunder seems to be missing from the met forecast again, but the GFS charts seem to be showing allot of potential in the west, the cape values are pretty high if lm reading them right..

ugh, talked too soon, met is suggesting some possible thundery showers.. everyone else who wants them can have them as long as they keep them from the west midlands lol.

wierdly the met office is going for settled weather or at least thats what the west midlands forecast is saying up till thursday. even suggesting a continuation on the 5/30 day forecast.

personally l hope any potential misses the west midlands lol,

been looking at this weekend, looks like possibilities from sunday until tuesday at the moment, not exactly keen on storms (at least in my area) because l run allot of sensitive equipment. anyone think the GFS outputs will move further east?

wasnt expecting what we got yesterday, 4 storms in one day... two with frequent lightning, the other two had a couple of flashes. (am in hereford, and annoyingly l had to be out in one of them shopping).

still even more confused tho, according to Pauls post lm within the "slight" risk area but the outputs on the forecast page give zero percentage of anything kicking off here today.. and lve looked at the charts and from what basic knowledge l have its left me confused how l could be in a slight area when the latest forecast run shows no percentage (that said my guess is on the lunchtime run at 12.30ish my guess is the predictions from midnight may reappear considering the past few times possibilities shot up).