Polar Bear
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Morning all,
Heavy fall of snow last night (25 cm) Snowfall forecast to continue into Wednesday with temps continue to fall. Snow ploughs will be working overtime to keep the mountain road open as some big drifts are developing.
C
hehe and apparently it is snowing in the three valleys!! last time was I think the 17th or 18th Jan...enjoy all!!..hope you get a decent dump..wish i was there!
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Hey all
Hope this is the right place to put such a request, but I am a total novice to weather forecast predictions etc. I am learning an awful lot from the forum, but sometimes lack of time does not permit to catch up on things via the site....this is causing me some (!) frustration!....
sooo.... I was wondering if anyone could recommend a book that I could get..
.a weather for dummies would be an excellent start if such a book exists..I suspect not.. then I could take it away read at bedtime and next time I am on the site be just that little more clued up......and hopefully have something more interesting to post! Many thanks in anticipation
Polar bear
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Mountain weather, particularly in large Massifs, has a character all of its own. In all but the very largest frontal systems falls can vary significantly from place to place. There's actually NO reason for 1850 (which is actually at about 1762 or so as I recall) and 1650 to get differing amounts of falling snow other than because of height. When I was there in March last year we had snow falling at 1850 and were in rain down at 1550 three or four minutes later. I've certainly known situations when Val d'Isere (maybe 15 miles away as the crow flies) had a foot of snow and "le plus grand domaine skiable..." had diddly squat. Much depends on wind direction and both Val D'Isere and Val Tho are favoured by being at valley heads: Courchevel and Meribel have valley side locations. There tends to be more mixing across ridges and hence, over a long time, average precipitation is higher.
The one occasion when there can be notable variation tends to be in convective situations; often into spring, when warm air from the valley is producing cloud below the peaks farabove. It can be snowing steadily in the cloud, but but not snowing out of, or below. There's been plenty of occasions when I've skied in 2-3" of fresh snow at the tops, whilst in resort there's been nothing.
Hey startos ferric
thanks for the explanation...very interesting and educational..am getting what you are saying..fascinating stuff. Wish I kind knew abit more before I headed out there..oh well another time peraps..you not heading out this year then?
PB
PS here is a useful link for those interested in the three valley areas.
http://www.snoweye.com/?page=fr-savoie-3v&...tail=courchevel
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Hi PB,
The main reason for the lack of snow last week was the High Pressure over Europe, I guess, although you'd normally expect clear skies and cold temps with that scenario. Depends on where the HP actually sits.
One thing to bear in mind is that clouds are essentially moisture, and if you a cloud high up in the cold mountains, then that moisture will will be frozen ie. snow. Thurs night in 3 valleys last week had some cloud pass over in the small hours and 2 cms of fresh appeared on top of the groomed snow that the piste bashers had just prepared. Lower down, nothing, not even rain.
Had some great weather last week actually - Mon/Tues had flat clouds down in the valleys, like a lake, Fri am we saw a fogbow and the clouds coming and going that day were quite eerie at times.
smich
Thanks Smich! I did think it was something like that but thought there may be a more local explanation...cool. Yes with regard to the weather you saw the same as me..the fog etc and those low clouds...amazing. The fogbow came over Valthoren in the pm and yes that was real eerie...the guys that skiied over from Meribel hit some strong winds too coming over. We took loads of pictures..all with great clouds and I think I will have to either post them here - if I can work out how to do it or send you a few....
Wonder if they will get any snow this week...not that it helps us being over here!
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Hi everyone,
Just got back from a week in Courchevel, so I thought I would report on the conditions!
The snowpack is holding up very well, considering the spring like conditions. We had an amazing +7 deg at Saulire (2700m) on Thursday (a Temp inversion meant we had +3 at 1850m!
) The lower slopes are quite slushy, but some snow making has been possible so things aren't too bad. Sadly when the snow has thawed and refrozen it's never quite the same again, so some new snow will be needed soon the freshen things up.My advice is to stay as high as you can - the snow up at the higher altitudes is fine.
As for my holiday - fan-flippin'-tastic is all I can say. Fantastic conditions early in the week, and my only issue was a hire ski that started to fall apart while I was right over the other side of the three valleys on Orelle side. First one edge came away at the back - not a problem really, just use it as my uphill edge. But then the other side started to come away too
Made it back safely though!Happy skiing peeps - I'm gutted to be home.
smich
Hey Smich
you must have been there at the same time as me! Was at courcheval 1650...towards end of the week not much in way of snow and icey conditions further up...1850 was a wee bit bit better - but went to Val Thorens on friday...what a difference that was...much nicer. as you said smich..the higher the better - val thoren is at about 2700.
Went to Salire on i think the thursday...very good up there. only a beginner but my friends did ok..
I am very sad to be home and I have got the bug..I am not brilliant by any means but I would love to be there. we have a friend who is still out there for 5 weeks.
I hope the snow improves for you all out there. Have lots of fun skiing if anyone of you is still out there...and let us know if you get any more snow...on a mopre serious note...why wasnt there much snow last week and Smich...did you understand the weather systems over there? ...my instructor tried to explain it to me...in very broken english..something about how some systems creat more for 1850 and not much for 1650..can you shed any light?!!!!!
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oh dont...poor little things - if they had been one of mine I would have been so petrified...not to mention fear of the massive vet bills. Thank god the ground was soft...the thing is if it could lift up a pony of only 12.2 hh and shifted a lorry over 7.5 tonnes- what would it have done to a human
. Everyone is lucky me thinks - especially when you look at how much glass would have been flying around too from that green house...... -
If you look on Ukww, Paul Knightley has written a very good account on this storm via the Meteogroup.
The storm actually initiated at 0730am just into Cornwall and by 0945am has just raced past Salisbury. It then tracked East North East towards London where it went through a few perculiar motions with dry air intrusions pepping the storm up and intensifying it. And as it crossed NW10 The Tornado dropped due to differing windfields and velocities. Not a bad track for a Storm and for it to get from Salisbury to North West London in little over an hour is very impressive.
Paul Sherman
hmm and rthink the track was through hampshire ....a colleague had 105 mph recorded on his weather station...could it be?
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Reading the skies are very dark and pelting it down with rain
temps have dropped since midday from 12 degrees to just above 10 degrees. Dont know wind speed.
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Hi crimsone,
Ex-Florence is just off Nova Scotia, on the present 00z gfs. She's still a potent storm. I wouldn't want to be out there in a small boat at the moment. If you track her across the Atlantic at 6 hourly intervals, she is forecast to dumbell around another low, then absorb it. She's then forecast to fill and drift Northwards, eventually petering out over Iceland early next week, having little, or no effect on the UK. The last forecast was correct up to a point, but the high pressure over Europe is now highly likely to stall her progress and stymie her effects.
Thanks for posting the Saturday forecast track. It illustrates the forecasters' difficulties with such systems perfectly.
The forecasts last weekend were for Florence to have a significant effect on our weather in the coming weekend - as your forecast track would indicate. I wobbled with my "spot", thinking exactly the same, but the European high proved stronger than anyone thought and this weekend should turn out mainly fine and warm, at least for England.
Paul
Paul
Hi I caught something off the news this morning re remnants affecting our weather system...what and how is this likley to be..i.e what sort of weather and when..should we be battering down the hatches??..
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I have always remebered the Beaufort Scale ever since I was knee high. This is because my family are sailors and this is what we were always taught. Think all then the force references do stem from the mariners use and the shipping forecast. I can only think in Forces when there is good breeze. Generally above a 7 we wouldnt go out in the boat, as it was verging on gale and things would get hairy! Inland though things are very different...a good 8 on the coast can be a six inland...
Not too sure where to post this but this has always interested me.This is the original scale.
0 Calm Less than 1 Smoke rises vertically.
1 Light air 1-3 Direction shown by smoke,but not by wind vanes.
2 Light breeze 4-7 Wind felt on face; leaves rustle; vane moved by wind.
3.Gentle breeze 8-12 Leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag.
4.Moderate breeze 13-18 Raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved.
5.Fresh breeze 19-24 Small trees in leaf begin to sway.
6.Strong breeze 25-31 Large branches in motion;umbrellas used with difficulty(in other words they`ll turn inside out
)7.Moderate gale 32-38 Whole trees in motion;inconveniance felt when walking against wind.
8.Fresh gale 39-46 Breaks twigs off trees;generally impedes progress.
9.Strong gale 47-54 Slight structural damage; chimney-pots and slates removed.
10.Whole gale 55-63 Trees uprooted; considerable structual damage.
11.Storm 64-75 Widespread damage; very rarely experienced.
12.Hurricane above75 Countryside is devastated.
But I`ve seen this today.
Which one do they use now?
S9
Edit: I got the original from an old observer`s book.
when you are out a sea on the coast..you can get the whole fresh and whole thing as ways of a gale. I quite like the beaufort scale... as to which one used now..I think everyone seems to have developed their own..
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08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.
Hi typhoon hunter....yeah I recently sussed this one out..apologies for the confusion. Web page wasnt refreshing so I could catch a glimpse of the thread already open for Chris.thanks though for the info.
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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010849
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF
THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS
THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED
EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72
HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
Hi summer blizzard..
which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position
,..differnt positions so I assume not
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Yes definately, great reports, great picks and really refreshing..look forward to more!
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There are many many photos like this from the show I was at, lots of tents and gazzebos went flying, I've personally never whitnessed anything quite so dramatic from English climate before.
Ed
great pic..where was the show?
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Who broke the Met Office site?! Or is it just my computer that won't open the page? I've been desperately trying to view the radar sequence for this afternoon, as we had an exceptionally heavy rainstorm at around 2pm this afternoon here in Oxford, accompanied by some thunder and lightning. Roads became rivers for a while. Anyone know where I can find a radar animation for this afternoon to track the storm that passed over?
Bilz...i can confirm the storm in Oxford....saw it over Oxford from the A4074 as it was about to send its deluge ontop off Oxford. Plenty of fork lightening, and the rain was torrential..incredible...have some photies but will have to post tomorrow. the shopping centre in Oxford was flooded and shops had to be shut down....we measured approx 50mm of rain from the storm...
http://www.thisisoxfordshire.co.uk/news/ti..._rain_falls.php
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that is very interesting - I never knew that..and it is even more amazing when you consider up til when most thought the earth was flat!! ..was it christopher columbo who disovered it wasnt ..I cant quite remember.
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More sleet and rain now than snow in reading
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snowing lightly in Reading...very slight and light as with Oxford. ..will it settle and the flakes get bigger I wonder...
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foggy in reading (and it seems to be worse than this morning!)...have no access to temps or anything though, unless someone else can provide a better update.
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For the current conditions on the solents see these:
http://www.chimet.co.uk/default.shtm
outside chichester Harbour, wind gusts to Force 9.
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Just had what I can only describe as a snow hurricane-about threeish. I live in the Chilterns,in Bucks. I saw the blackest cloud I've ever seen approach with great speed. Then came an intense, very high speed wind, with a strange howling noise - almost like a tornado sound. There was wet snow in this wind, enough to give the grass in my paddocks a white covering. I had to leave my mares and foals out to endure the wind and snow because it was too fierce to walk out into. They had snow on their backs too. All in safe and cosy now! Snowangel
Hi snow angel - yeah same effect in reading just five mins ago although I was in the office so couldn't tell if thre was snow..defo hail. Like you have ponies/horses - we are going down there tonight to turn our feed store back into the stable for the little ones (shetlands only 1 yrs old), and so we can bring them all in (thoroughbreds too) pleased you have them nice and snuggly now - ours to do later!! hope it clears abit!! !10 to bring in in this weather is not a nice prospect!! Will you bring yours in all day tomoz?
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Raining (light drizzle) in reading - wind has picked up from this morning but nothing gusty. Cant tell you temps, or pressure as I unfortuantely dont have access to measurements
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not without triggering the board censor. lol
seriously though, it means I was laughing a little harder than lol and not quite as much as PML. It means Laughing My A*** Off.
I take it back! Someone alredy explained and it didn't trigger the censor.
Edit: if anybodyy who can would like to, delete this post. It's utterly usless because I spoke too soon
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
oops and it is all my fault..soz everyone
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LMAO = Laughing My I have a problem Off
Kain
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
coool!! thanx kane!
.a weather for dummies would be an excellent start if such a book exists..I suspect not.. then I could take it away read at bedtime and next time I am on the site be just that little more clued up......and hopefully have something more interesting to post! 
) The lower slopes are quite slushy, but some snow making has been possible so things aren't too bad. Sadly when the snow has thawed and refrozen it's never quite the same again, so some new snow will be needed soon the freshen things up.
Made it back safely though!
The Alps, Current and Future
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Hey Stratus
Just a quickie and I hope you dont mind..I have a friend still out in Courcheval..when enquiring about the weather someone told him that the patterns follow similar lines in new york......
.......hmmm..not sure on that one but what do you reckon?
PB