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Polar Bear

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    Wilma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    I've an awful feeling now she's gonna plough straight into Cancun/Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 and probably won't turn northeast until she's wreaked havoc there.

    Posted yesterday about the fact she might not turn at all - anyone want to take me up on a wager? :D (joke)

    Edit: Heavy rain falling over Cuba at the mo: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Is it me or is she increasing in size (diameter) - she looks huuge at the mo. I suspect it could just be me

    Wilma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    50,000 sand bags would be cheaper ;)   ;)

    Afternoon all.. Wilma still on track for Florida, i see!

    Am surprised the NE turn hasn't occured yet...doesn't bode well for the Yucatan at the mo..

    Also noticed one of the buoys in the Yucatan Basin recorded near 30ft waves :D

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Hi Mondy

    Where do you get the buoy data from?

    Waiting For Wilma!

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Ermmmmm, :(

    I go to bed last night, and pretty much all models are to clip the Yucatan, and then veer off somewhere in the North - North East Gulf, Wilma was heading almost due South...I get here this morning..and now NHC track is almost spot on the track I said at 00.40 last night!...clip Cuba > Keys > Ten Thousand Isands > Inland FL > West Palm Beach.Thats spooky..but I think its still too early to say for definite as Wilma could still lead us a merry dance before setting off properly.

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    so haas she still stalled - the link seems to suggest she has and isn't moving for the next 12 hours (am I lagging behind?)

    http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

    Hurricane Rita Pt3

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    I would agree it has drag from NO now which will slow it down.  I think the people in that jam near the bus crash will be in line for a bit of a dousing and a windy night because they look as if they will not be moving very much

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    yeah on the queues why on earth haven't they opened up the southbound carriageways to northbound traffic - they could have at least allowed one lane of traffic to use the southbound ones. I know it will probably be a bit of traffic management nightmare to organise - but at least it would mean the queues could move. Now these guys could have a horrid night after waiting hours in hot temps. It just goes from bad to worse for them.

    Hurricane Rita.

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Find this very interesting reading:

    THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  SINCE RITA HAS

    COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY

    OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING

    THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...

    POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE

    INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR

    A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT

    WEAKENING.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT

    STRENGTHEN..

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    you have beaten me to it and what I was about to write - couldnt agree more. SO you were right Mondy she was undergoing another ew replacement, no? What time is she expected to hit land fall our time then ( although I know she may veer back into the gulf/ any thoughts?

    Hurricane Rita.

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    New one: 9am (our time)

    BULLETIN

    HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 23

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

    4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO

    THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

    CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

    LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

    INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND

    FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL

    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER

    TODAY.

    AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR

    THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN

    MEXICO.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

    LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES

    SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

    CAMERON LOUISIANA.

    RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL

    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS

    TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST

    LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

    IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED

    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

    CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

    TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE

    UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED

    SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF

    130 FT.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

    EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

    TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

    LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

    KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

    COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT

    MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

    RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

    INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER

    SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

    SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING

    LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

    OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN

    LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE

    POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW

    ORLEANS.

    ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

    TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

    REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

    WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

    HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

    COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

    FORECASTER BEVEN

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    so she is still cat 4 then at 9am. Interesting. are we getting in conflicting information? there should be another at 10am so I wonder how that will fair.

    Hurricane Rita.

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    No probs :blink: Instead of me rambling on trying to explain as best i can (only seriously taken an interest since Katrina btw), this gives a great explanation:

    "Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a). source

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Thanks Mondy - that is stupendous - I will keep. good stuff! Veyr clear now :blink:

    Hurricane Rita.

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Recon have so far only managed to tell us all there planes are having engineering difficulties! :blink: New data is promised later though.

    Think you've hit the nail on the head Smich. Cat 5 easily possible at or near landfall. Just look at the ocean around her..nothing in her way (as yet) to weaken her.

    Is eyewall replacement taking place already too?  http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-g...al&numframes=20

    As a footnote,maybe a good idea to bookmark these live feeds for landfall time:

    1. http://www.khou.com/

    2. http://www.click2houston.com/index.html

    3. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Mondy

    As you may have guessed by now, am not techically up to speed or even in the kno in weather speak and knowledge - this forum teaches me all i know! Soooo would you possibly, very briefly explain to me what eyewall replacement is. Hope you dont mind.

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