ancientsolar

immigrant from Wales forum here, ~ metoffice have 7 days of warning out for Scotland.. I can see that being extended to 10 and even 14 days now

We better start putting the icecubes in the atlantic.. just to make sure!

it'll be interesting to see how it all develops ... We do have a lot of high ground .. and the blend of the Atlantic and Easterly cold battle can bring us some really nice scenes .. even if short lived , ~ last Sunday was a decent snow day for us .. and some of that snow is still around in the hills.

interesting to see that intensify over land

the weather warnings playing musical chairs.. with my emotions! - disappointing night.. beautiful gift today !

checking NWR for any snow.. looks like a tiny bit of sleet between Aberdare and Brecon .. well it's a start.. ^_^

nice covering toward Blackwood

ones comprehension of scientific fact.. isn't a substitute for ones experiences in the field of everything I have spent many weeks waiting for the snow , then because of experience.. I know how rare it is for snow to even settle here.. by the time the surface is cool enough.. the snow is in England .. hopefully not this time

supposedly it's snowing less than 10miles to your west.

Sleet now showing as far South as Clydach a slight S shape Squall approaching Swansea.

think it must be the squall - wind change ,. ramping up the moisture and converging. ~ NWR showing a lot of sleet in the SW and the odd bit of snow too... I wouldn't be surprised if there's some thundersnow about .. may'be some local hail too

that is some seriously heavy rainfall across SW Wales. won't be surprised to see a number of issues from that!

It's this picture GFS 12z 141 hours , it's vastly different from the previous run, - the low above Iceland seems to be more Northward, and it has been in very different positions in the last 24 hours+ ~ it seems to be slowing down the approach of the high pressure as well as allowing the low pressure to come from Spain (Iberia?) This latter thing seems to be a new feature not in the previous 3 GFS models, the said low pressure was directed more across Central Europe.. I think this is the 3 way battle ground that is still on going and to be observed (I have very little knowledge about what i'm talking, but I am seeing the comparisons from previous runs, feed back is very very welcome! )

Looks more like Jonny Bravo dancing

I don't understand the pictures really

yes , i'll give it another 48 hours before I lose hope, - each chart is so vastly different , there are so many potentials.

Good luck all for this run - Look forward to the discussions as they help me understand the models .. which have so many features to them.

would the -4 to -6 uppers be enough for the South ? I guess they'll be fine for Brecon , Snowdonia and Dartmoor ~ and a week for things to change entirely hehe

a few more sleety snow showers moving into the valleys, - i'm just about awake, - I guess they could go on all night I wonder if we'll have a repeat situation tomorrow hmm.

12z and 18z have totally flipped the previous 3 runs... and 12z and 18z haven't matched up very well until tonight! Great model!

Heads of the Valleys in for an absolute pasting -- 30-45mins of heavy snow I think ~ hoping it will edge Southwards 10 miles ,. but it's really struggling

look at that long finger heading into Brecon intensifying,. quite a dumping up there,. and the trajectory seems to gradually turn it slightly more Southerly as it follows the curves of the wind

More dusting on a Victoria Sponge ,. - ground temperature must be below freezing, no messing around for the finest snow to stick

a few flakes here

the direction of the snow should be headed SSW , so the beacons shouldn't be an obstacle ?