danthetan
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Posts posted by danthetan
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12 hours ago, marclt said:
Definitely looks like we’re on for a northerly.
I wonder will it bring with it a Pembrokeshire Dangler!?
Looking very likely I would say winds NNE N or NNW wet bulb 0c 850hpa temps -9 freezing level 0-100m 520 thicknesses cold and unstable could be a right dumping where the line of showers set up.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
Just out Interest how accurate are these charts they seem so different form the NOOA charts?
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Anyway...... sorry to Interrupt the winter funeral on the 20th of february. Yes we are going through a mild phase which to be fair is expected as we've been very fortunate this winter. My thoughts are we will see a few more days of above average temperatures as the High pressure builds from the south later next week it will cut off the supply of warm air and as the days are getting longer so we will continue to see temperatures into double digits but also falling at night to low singe figures. After that a trough dropping into Scandinavia coinciding with vortex in canada on the move which could allow high pressure to pull west and give a northerly.
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Not much to get excited about Im afraid if its of the cold bias. The general direction seems to be high pressure building over or near to UK thereafter a trough dropping into Scandinavia more favourably ECM allowing a colder northerly flow nothing notable more likely to be a toppler.
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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:
A bit more amplification and that low just south of greenland could slide?
No it will get pulled back to the low exiting newfoundland, with the trough dropping into Scandinavia could allow a gap for high pressure to rise towards Greenland. All way to far out to have any confidence.
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snowing again here really going for it now.
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For those further east it started off as tiny flakes and ice pellets for at least an hour it wasn't until the temperature starting rising it turned to flakes.
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Light to moderate snow here settling easily very dry snow
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Think the warning only starts at 9pm because the first front was meant to fizzle out. The second one for 6am tomorrow looks like its made further inroads.
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
D6 GEFS mean
Hell on
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1 hour ago, dyl232 said:
I know that white lines indicates snow, and the background colour is the amount of precipitation, but what does the purple lines indicate?
freezing rain
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850hpa temperatures might be near 0c but look at the 2m temps feeding off the continent wow thats at 13.00
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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:
I'm increasingly of the impression that we may - for a change! - see a spell of high pressure next weekend, as the Atlantic trough stalls fully to our west.
A breakaway low may produce some frontal precipitation Thu-Fri in that scenario, which could be snow for a time. GEM 12z shows that as an example.
In that scenario, 850s will probably rise next weekend - perhaps even quite a bit - but if the flow is light enough, the surface cold may hang on with only a slow thaw of lying snow.
Exactly what I thought, no way in this world that low is going under the block. But if that weak scandi ridge get's far enough west then that Atlantic low will head back NW and like you say shear off some energy clipping the SW and the UK will remain under high pressure with a slack E flow best case scenario at present.
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5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:
I see The Met will it rain thinks theres a chance for the snow to get further west.
Thats the latest UKMO fax looks like there could be more on that occlusion
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3 minutes ago, MR_E said:
Did the 1982 event originate in the East as this one is do you know?
Pretty much the same battle as now the cold air was lurking to the NE and mild air to the south. That low that went through was the trigger to pull down the cold air and allow a wedge of high pressure to form which with cold air stalled the low coming in off the Atlantic and dropped the hammer.
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3 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:
1982 was historic for Pembrokeshire, from what I’ve been told. I wasn’t born either. But whenever snow is forecast my dad always tells me the story of how he could almost touch the top of the telegraph poles because the snow had drifted so high! Would love to witness that, seems unlikely this time, but you never know.
Ive been told similar stories to. What I was getting at by showing those charts is the cold air never really got further than cardiff -10 @850hpa and more like -5 camarthen west and that front still didn't make through. With the cold air forecast to be over the whole country for 2/3 days there is a real chance of seeing something like this again.
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If anyone remembers the big snowfall of 1982 I don't wasn't born, but here are the archive charts from wetterzentrale. In my village people lost their cars in the drifts and a local farmer even lost his tractor. But you can see how far the mild air has to penetrate the cold for good dumping. You can on this event it stalled and the cold air won. Ive attached how it all started on the 5th until the 8th the cold air won and headed back south.
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1 hour ago, winterof79 said:
I really do not think that is bad at all
Me neither we need that low piling in from the west to shunt the meandering low over the uk east to pull the cold air westwards and prop up the block.
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woke up to ice pellets hitting the window and temp 3.0 now temp dropping to 2.6 and light wet sleet/snow need intensity and temp to drop further
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10 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
it is key as is the predisposition of models to bring in new features as it reacts to updated current conditions. I think an easterly is probably odds on now, but you couldn't rule out a complete collapse. Still 3 complicated weather events to get through, all of which could be game changers for better or worse.
concentrate on how that behaves will determine the outcome its as simple as that. knife edge stuff. easterly is the form horse I don't disagree its in what form. SE crap, E good , NE jackpot basically clear as mud.
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1 minute ago, Stu_London said:
yes the para has thrown a spanner in the works delivering what I think might be the most brutal long lasting cold spell to most of us that I have ever seen in 22 years of model watching, when the trend was for a more 'surface cold' outcome from the other models, although the GEFS 18Z swung back a little that way
How the low makes its exit is key here looking beyond that well............. lotto numbers?
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Just now, Stu_London said:
you too - lets hope the weather delivers what you hope for (might be bbq weather for all I know)
definitely not bbq. more clarity on the easterly though long way to go solve this riddle.
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1 minute ago, Stu_London said:
ok happy days
I thought maybe my south of M4 rants were getting a bit whingy
happy to clear that up
didn't even see them haha. no clue what your on about. all the best though.
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1 minute ago, Stu_London said:
If referring to me you have misinterpreted the spirit of my musings. I don't suffer an angst over weather, unless it affects my ability to carry my daily business, then it becomes annoying. Im a severe weather enthusiast who has long since excepted that the weather will do what it will do. Any edginess in the posts is humour or irony
no not you.
Model output discussion 10/02/21
in Forecast Model Discussion
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