danthetan
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Posts posted by danthetan
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58 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Front due earlier around 4am ,as I said earlier netweather .Expect snow Across all of Wales.central east Wales looks the prime location on the fronts present tract atm
4am perfect timing no solar Input etc. yeah you lot in S.wales will do well at height and being further inland. Not expecting much at low levels here in Pembrokeshire apart from the hills up the road about 500M. after the low clears through most of next week we won't struggle for precipitation here just cold enough air to produce snow, pembs dangler looks like setting up shop.
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2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Exactly the spv has had no chance to impact ohr weather yet its remarkable!
We will obviously see milder interludes but i believe these will accompany snow from channel lows and diving low pressures from Greenland though!!
Indeed could be a classic.
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1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:
Its absolutely fascinating this year Dan!
Its the fact its happening in early Jan.
Well get away with marginality a lot easier than say late february and March before we hopefully see a favourable ssw induce some even colder upper air.
Very interesting to monitor daily temperatures the longer it stays as it is
Best Ive seen in a long time.
Yeah normally we get these synoptics late march/early april when the SPV itsn't running the show.
Think this cold spell may have some legs, obviously with milder interludes. we shall see.
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5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
And we stay cold with snow oppprtunies by being the right side of the jet in the wane period.
Imagine if this played out in the lull before the next injection of cold!
Cold pooling right in the heart of winter!!!
It really is looking like rinse and repeat, can't remember charts like this since late 2000's.
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34 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Serious note “ Monday’s migration LP has a huge dumping beginning to be written on it.. and has pivot/and slow notions.. parts midlands/south eastern England... my bet is firmly for the first notable accumulated snow @all levels within these parts.. with obvious sweetspot geographical luck!!!!.. this from the ecm.. I know it’s causing big headaches too for the leadings agencies... !!!
@rapidly gaining traction
My sweet spot is 200M + in wales south/North pennines bit of sleet for the rest being realistic.
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36 minutes ago, Griff said:
Apologies if this has been posted already... Someone's been on the sherry...
you can't deny that looks pretty accurate with most of wales, NW England and scotland being at elevation. south east not so sure don't know the topography.
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16 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:
Btw
That would be a beautiful chart for any operational run in the winter...
But it’s the mean!
Aaand it had a wobble at the key time frame!
Surely the other big models don’t back it up...
Not so fast! Eps shows a mean Icelandic high too!
The best month of model watching since Feb 2018, can we top it?
If thats a Mean its very realistic it ties in with the Met office 10 day trend a ridge to the NW of Ireland, trough fading away the east.
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2 hours ago, Updated_Weather said:
This was Matt Hugo reply to MetO suggesting that high pressure was more likely around new year..
I mean I get they have to be cautious but lie about something that isn’t there?
It could be a holding pattern before more amplification thats my guess.
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Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year.
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26 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
It brings freezing temperatures lower to the suface. So it takes away the need for as much elevation
There is a table that was kicking about on the forum years back which illustrated this perfectly. Something to do with the density of air as it cools.
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Just travelled home from snowdonia to haverfordwest clear all the way through Wales until I got to the presli Hills snow level to about 150M very slushy but on the road that goes over near the top 400M temp 0c and dry covering of 2inchs
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47 minutes ago, Kiwi said:
Looking interesting out west ...Pembrokeshire Dangler?
Now thats a snow maker *if the right side of margins. Don't think so this time for low level the mountains could get a dusting which isn't unusual for winter.
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37 minutes ago, weirpig said:
few images from the 18z icon. Just for fun but a quick rundown of the snow showers for the end of the week. Turning from rain to snow across east of the country and then turning heavy as it makes itsway across west and North quite a few could see heavy snow away from lowland east anglia and the south east which could be rain.
pembrokeshire dangler in full swing there
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11 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:
Just finished watching the weather for the week ahead on country file and Wales is looking very good for
Friday especially hill areas and also some at lower levels and also th the North of Scotland.
Im travelling home from work from snowdonia to haverfordwest hills and mountains all the way should be fun.
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From a cold perspective, I think the best we can hope for is for the trough to sink further east keeping the UK in a colder northerly flow and the atlantic ridge building in over the top of the trough and linking with the ridge over europe west russia. As this is all still 6 days away where that trough sinks is always going to chop and change.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
Yes, I quite liked Ian Brown and like you say a character! He seemed to be on to something regarding no more widespread in England for quite a while until we had winter 2009/10!
Nice one mate. well said as if.
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The urals high pressure is key here to buckling the jet and sending it into europe and the low heights. Also there is enough energy coming from the atlantic in the form of shallow low pressures to stop to azores high ridging north keeping the jet heading SE into europe. glimmer of hope lets see how it plays out.
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Temp 1.7 clear and slight grass frost
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
This is why some people aren't cut out for meteorology or life in general. Fingers in ears, head in sand and going 'la la la' will get you nowhere.
Acceptance of facts and likely direction of travel will help you understand more in the long run.
This is model output discussion so Moan in the correct thread its very simple and easy to follow even for you. shall I link it for you?
Im well aware of what the models show, and direction of travel but I don't moan about it in here.
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Mods can you put some of these posts in the relevant moan/ramp thread please I'm sick of these winters over posts which have no help or relevance in this thread. Moan somewhere else. Thanks
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Chilly day down here in south wales and foggy low of - 1.3
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Good UKMO & ECM this morning better disruption of the low in the Atlantic @144 with models reverting back to climatology in the extended range I wouldn't be surprised if everything backs west and more favourable charts appear in the coming days.
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Euro 4 shows wide spread showers turning to snow and becoming more organised.
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25 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Well when I got up this morning I looked at the UKMO....and to me is stepping towards cold and is improving chances. GFS was always going to initially pull away from perfection charts, but I still see very nice cold and snow potential. ECM Plunges cold south......the southern snowcane disappeared....but there’s very much interest still here. Yep a slowing of the cold arrival.....and those concerned re Atlantic coming in......it always was, there is no major Scandi block to come this month, but if the cold air can dig enough we get little wedges and trough disruption......that isn’t off the table....we are still seeing PV displacement to our NE......game very much still on
BFTP
Unless Im reading the UKMO fax charts wrong the 0z was much better than yesterdays 12Z looking at the 500mb & MSLP
UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org
WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORGUK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
valleys & beacon beacons nicked it all