danthetan
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Posts posted by danthetan
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51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
There is quite a downbeat mood in here again this morning..save yourself some stress folks..things will look better before much longer..I think Lockdown is affecting many of us..but if we can get through this past year like we have,then I'm sure we can deal with a few days of bad model output.
The milder conditions that are coming could be a signal of MJO move and Nina forcing,it could also be the first signs of the SPV regaining some strength with temps dropping over the pole for the first time in a long time. Models may be latching onto this..But its looking a good call for a further warming event and perhaps another reversal to come,so that Vortex is not going to be getting much time to recover...I would say interesting times into the first week of February again..keep the faith folks.its not all bad..
Thanks to Marco P for putting up the graphs.
With the SPV +12m/s westerly ATM is this why the models keep pushing through the Atlantic with a strong jet. With a steep drop off of the SPV imminent perhaps this will help keeping back the Atlantic and disrupt the jet.
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if your on the coast forget it, Im afraid only the intensity turned it to snow.
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26 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:
That’s promising given that you’re in the far west! Are you near the coast or have a bit height?
8 miles inland @50M
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Its heavy and settling
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so on the radar it showed snow it was rain temp shot up to 2.3 now turned snow and temp on the way back down 1.7
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like I thought cold air shredding the front been under snow for 20 mins on the radar nothing getting down to the ground.
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4 minutes ago, swales said:
Looking at Wundermaps weather stations around Pembrokeshire coasts (Pembroke, Tenby etc.) the temp has flown up 4-5c+ over the last hour or two as the cloud pushes in...
Shame really, it's looking like rain/sleet for southern coastal areas judging by this.
its gone from -3 to -0.2 since the cloud has rolled over the precipitation is 10 miles away so expect a 3 degrees rise unless your on top of a hill
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Temp now up to -1.6 dp -2.3 cloudy for last few hours precipitation not far off now what will it be freezing rain or snow?
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cloudy here now -2.3 dp -3.1
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17 minutes ago, Penfoel said:
Strumble Head DP currently Minus 2.2 temp 1.9 windspeed 1mph. My car is frozen. That doesn't happen here that often.
What elevation are you? I know stumble head is fairly high. its staggering the temp difference its -2 here now in Haverfordwest @ 50M
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looking at the afternoon temperatures in Ireland they were anywhere between 3 and 5c on the west coast and colder further east. At my location in SW wales its already - 1.5 and dp of -3 I can't help think this front will get shredded by the cold air. I think the best chance of seeing prolonged stuff is as the front pivots. IMBY perspective as the winds turn northerly feeding moisture into the front thats likely to beef up the precipitation thing is then will it be cold enough?
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The latest UKMO fax show the low pressure bumping into the cold air and sliding across south wales this looks good for more prolonged snowfall.
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Travelling back from Birmingham earlier heads of the valleys road by brynmawr was snowing heavy and settling no problem. also seen the hills in pembrokeshire have a covering and was snowing over the higher parts of the A40 roughly 200M. Sunday looks the best shot for south wales on sunday and here just have to hope the front is lively enough.
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34 minutes ago, Don said:
As I alluded to earlier, if we didn't have those pesky heights to the south, the outlook would be pretty good with more southerly tracking lows!
This all hinges on enough forcing by the Greenland high south to stop the low pressures heading north getting caught up in the easterly flow and blowing up allowing the azores to ridge north and putting the UK in a SW/W flow. corrections south is crucial here and has been the general direction last few runs.
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Updated UKMO fax charts updated show things marginally further south against GFS 18Z which is crucial here as you can see @65N roughly the flow is heading east. The further south the block in the greenland vicinity will push the low exiting the Newfoundland disrupting it and keeping it in the westerly flow going south of the UK instead of travelling north and hitting the easterly flow and blowing up. in the first few frames of the 18Z you can there is sufficient forcing of the block to disrupt the first low exiting newfoundland sending the low into the base of the trough NE of the UK.
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Heres the latest fax chart for Tuesday and compare it to last nights fax we can clearly see theres is much better separation between the two lows which should help further down the line.
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Morning, its pretty clear from this morning's output how those two low pressure's interact at 96HR is yet to be resolved so pointless looking any further than that. Once thats sorted its where the boundary line sets up between colder air to the north and milder to south with with possible snow on the boundary.
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The only good thing about the 18Z ......... It won't be the same tomorrow as usual.
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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Highly enjoyable pub run, finally getting some low uppers across the north sea around day 11 ()
Really good run for the UK as a whole, not so much for the southerners. I think we'll need to be a bit more patient, but we're still in the game.
have a look at the 2M temperatures -4 @13.00 in parts of wales.
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If you look at the satellite for cloud you can see to my untrained eye a small low pressure system responsible for the precipitation moving in SW direction. The heavier stuff seems to be on the NW side of this.
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Updated UKMO fax chart, looks to be south wales event on Wednesday.
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4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:
I thought this was Model Disscusion not will it Snow in my back garden.
Nice to see
is in the sweetest spot. SORRY, You are going to get Slush deposits.. Biased in here but us Welsh understand you are jealous.
Abergavenny maybe not on the old severn bridge I'm afraid.
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4 minutes ago, georgiedre said:
I think snowdonia will be prime area. So might take most of the heavy precipitate or snow in this case
Definitely, nice and close to coast to pick up moisture as the low pivots. good elevation to I've been staying in rhyd ddu for work last 3 weeks I imagine when I return in new year will very white up there. beautiful part of the world
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2 minutes ago, kumquat said:
Let's face it - it's gonna be cold rain for most of us. Some lucky place Midlands will get a dumping followed by a thaw/flooding. Will be interesting to see going forwards into Jan how the meso pattern develops.
I think so, if you live wales or SW England at elevation looking really good for snow . SW midlands good chance at low level.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
likes his tantrums this one.