Where we go after 120hrs for me is anyones guess, it all seems to hinge on what happens to the trough in the Atlantic around 144hrs. ECM pulls all the energy over the top off the high sitting over the UK, UKMO seems to send most of the energy over the top but some underneath and GFS more or less splits it sending enough energy to at least drag colder air in for a time before pushing the high back into Europe, all these options go on to produce very different outcomes in the latter stages of GFS & ECM. With that in mind we know how the models always struggle to gauge the strength of any such blocking high so for me i need to see some consistency from the models around the 144 hr period before knowing which way were heading.