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danthetan

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Everything posted by danthetan

  1. danthetan
    Attached charts show 1982 blizzard, the weather fronts coming from the W/SW rather than South it did stall and head back south it was fine margins mind.
  2. danthetan
    Im with you all the way I don't bother looking at charts past 120hrs imo no point. With Sunday in mind Monday night into Tuesday is looking interesting as a weather front moves into cold air and as winds fall light behind it becoming slow moving, so over Wales scotland & Northern England so potential for heavy snow. Also Wednesday morning after a frosty night, a system moving up from the south into cold air with SE winds wrapping cold air into the mixes it pushes up the western side of UK so more snow again for a time.
  3. danthetan
    Had Snow showers on and off all afternoon to wet to stick but showers getting going again and have a covering here, hopefully the dangler gets going again tonight and drops the hammer
  4. danthetan
    light snow covering all surfaces here
  5. danthetan
    Seems a bit more intense on the euro 4 12Z possibly picking up moisture off the Irish sea as it crosses? Looks like the showers are going to pile after the weather front so 2 bites at the cherry tomorrow that doesn't happen often.
  6. danthetan
    GFS showing frontal snow and then snow showers affecting Pembs Tuesday into Wednesday. Pembrokeshire dangler will be in full swing with a keen North wind blowing down the Irish sea.
  7. danthetan
    Thats where the front has stalled and dumping all the snow
  8. danthetan
    To be fair you western scots have an absolute tuning from every weather apart from sunshine. so you'll save a bit on sunglasses this year for a new shovel
  9. danthetan
    Last time I checked this isn't a roulette table or some sort disconnect from real life that people come to discuss weather it still needs some degree of normality to steer it away from charts in the 10 day range to keep sanity.. its like walking into a job tomorrow and the boss telling you in 10 years time you will leave here a millionaire
  10. danthetan
    Im sure this post is regarding the eastern US. Although I would like to think he means europe
  11. danthetan
    High pressure slap bang over the UK is always a good starting block to get winds in from the north or east, *IF* it retrogresses north you will always draw winds from a cold source. Trying to get a high pressure building from the east seems very rare these days and always ends up close but no cigar.
  12. danthetan
    Here we had a light horizontal snow shower and now a covering of hail
  13. danthetan
    I think what John is getting at is the green lines indicate the flow and the blue and red indicate anomaly heights.
  14. danthetan
    The point being that the GFS has no consistency as far out as 96 Hrs so what chance has anything beyond that got of being correct. It was an observation.
  15. danthetan
    Noted that the GFS 6Z was completely different @96hr to its 00Z run with the placing of low pressure systems so charts @ 8-10day cant hold much credence
  16. danthetan
    Crymych seems to snowing @200M so Preseli's should have lying snow by now
  17. danthetan
    Refering back to my post yesterday regarding the model volatility and alaskan ridge taking todays 12Z UKMO it seems to be advertising with the idea of building heights towards Greenland which sends the jet south and low pressure systems with it this keeping us in colder air. Taking the GFS 12Z you notice the deep low pressure systems are much less apparent compared with a few days ago, but is less keen on building heights into Greenland. We shall have to wait and see if this becomes the trend.
  18. danthetan
    I take your point about the uk weather being boring in the semi reliable time frame. But I'm not looking at whats happening in the uk at 144hr my focus is on the alaskan ridge heading into the pole and what effects that has.
  19. danthetan
    Why people are focusing on charts way out in the ontha and not in the semi reliable time frame 144hr is beyond me. The Alaskan ridge surging into the pole on the last few runs is going to play havoc within the models not worth looking past that timeframe.
  20. danthetan
    I understand that, but I could only find a 12z chart from yesterday in the thread. From memory if I did post yesterdays 0z it would show an even bigger adjustment south according to the ECM.
  21. danthetan
    ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight
  22. danthetan
    A few members were discussing the Pembrokeshire Dangler earlier. Living here, I have witnessed it in action, so I managed to find in the archives the chart which produced 10 inch's of snow at sea level back in 2004. The conditions look right for the Dangler to form weds night and Thursday but wether it will be cold enough to turn to snow we will have to wait. Although we have hills @500M so lying snow up there isn't out of the question.
  23. danthetan
    One thing I've noticed over the years of model watching is a correction south of low pressure systems coming up against an area of high pressure by the models. It seems the heights to the north are developing rather than established as the low pressure systems are moving across the Atlantic, so this might not be the case but we shall see.
  24. danthetan
    Absolute snow machines in the right conditions. Ive seen them pull the temperature down 5 degrees and over 8 inches of snow in a very short space of time in pembs.
  25. danthetan
    The GFS has continued to show slight adjustment West with both the high pressure to the north of the UK and the deep low to the NE Scandinavia if this continues in the next few days and that trough can drop south into europe surley this will aid retrogression towards Greenland.
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