KyleHenry

Something everyone needs to know about Italians and time. They have a saying tempo Inglese which means at a specific time outside of that in Italian time can be anytime no rush

The rumour mill has OPI final result as -2.41. Yes Steve, my quote wasn't reading right the major factors is the main influence on the ridge. My thoughts were too focused on temps of pacific and pattern that allowed Nuri to take this path. Nuri has it's part to play

Typhoon Nuri is such a big player affecting Aleutian region and I feel preventing PV from forming by attacking it from below. I'm being genuine once again a similar pattern of Typhoon path and timing pops up... 2009 Typhoon Lupit http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_typhoon_season Follows exact path. Lead to Arctic outbreak US then to an amplified pattern to the N Atlantic. Resulted in major low pressure systems pilling in to British Isles causing major flooding events. Pattern change only occurred 16th December 2009 to colder which in turn lead the iconic photograph of 10th Jan 2010. So if pattern continues as 2009, prepare for 5 weeks of floods. Starting in approx 10 days. I'm aware of 2009 being at solar min and comparison years of solar min result in UK having it's most extreme winters. But volcanic activity this year from Kamchatka, Philippines South America and even Iceland has released large volume of SO2 into Trop and Strat, this must be acknowledged as an important factor. So sounding like a broken record 2009 stands out again Amen to that.

It's going to be quite a change most of Canada will fill as too Rockies, Central belt and towards East Coast

I'll say one thing of similarity to 2009 is that the BDO ozone is beginning to set up in same region( Alaska to East Canada) more time is needed to do proper comparisons. Unfortunately with 1976, I don't have data for as it was test period for satellite data. http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/monthly_2014-11_NH.html 2009 as you can see by going through daily November images the ozone concentration remained in this sector for entire month and did not reside above UK. Could be said this is the key to open a way for Canadian Strat warming wave. Awaits to be seen.

True observation, the next ten day charts have serious Artic outbreak to US

Steve has anomaly year 2006 got any attention from you as a possible outcome.(OPI was positive though) East based QBO and on the same downward trend plot from solar max like this year is? 1976 -1.75 OPI is jumping out as a likely match with attention to lower solar output for that era. Solar flux is similar but not an East based QBO year.

Steve, if only there was more years of data to compare with. Stratosphere pointing towards 2009- dry and cold, streamers off North Sea. Americans looking at late 70's. 1976/77. A -6 AO points towards 2010. March 2013 was the last seriously negative AO (-5.6). As East Coast of Northern Ireland was on the boundary of that cold front I witnessed 4 1/2 foot of snow burying cars up to the roof and higher out towards countryside.

You have to remember that when the final figure is returned, it will be for the central countries of mainland Europe. Deductions due to geographical location will need to be made for British Isles. So if a -2.40 is returned and you live in Cornwall at or near sea level for example deductions would equate to approximately -0.8. Further East/North and higher elevation the less deductions and better feel for a more exact anomaly year match.

I can't help feeling we would not be in the current position with the OPI if it were not for us being in an Easterly QBO phase.

I've reworded my original post.

Within the 10 days to end of month more solid data than FI. Many have said on here that by the 21st of October the OPI shores up a final index result and so does not deviate too much from this figure to final result. It most likely will not go below a -2.5. But it looks like it'll be more negative than that.

That's OPI for October 2013 which was positive but AO was slightly negative until a small part of Feb 2014. OPI October 2014 is currently running very negative. -3.04. As last year was the most up to date index. I was analysing it first with what the outcome was. Then trying to predict Winter 2014/15 with what the current Index is and what the we should expect if the OPI is a valid long range forecasting model/tool.

Just below highlight is quote from Riccardo October 2013.

Below is a quote from Riccardo on 23rd October 2013: As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only" a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI). To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model). However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter. ************************************************ Final OPI was +1.65 the second highest in satellite era to +1.7 in 1992. 1992 was a positive AO but 2013 remained slightly negative through DJF at 1000mb, (first 10 days Feb 2014 was slightly positive) but the effects on Winter 2013/14 in Western Europe ie UK weather pattern underwent the effects of what a positive AO would be wet,mild and windy. The 2013/14 PV's strength and position was always going to have this effect, deep down we all knew this. So the OPI decoupled from AO but the outcome for us was in a round about way correct. Is that a failure? In regards to predicting AO 2013/14 yes. If you accepted final OPI figure you could have been prepared for low pressure rolling in continuously and as a result for Western Europe it was correct. So if the OPI for Oct 2014 results in a -2.5 to -3.5 we would be expecting cold incursions and a Arctic air battle with Atlantic several times this winter. If OPI is this negative then some could justifiably say we should expect one period of Mid latitude blocking in months of DJF for OPI to verify. I don't know exact methodology being used I'm making an estimate. I'm aware a forecast will follow from the team so other factors will be in play, but I stand intrigued with how it pans out.

Question for Lt Col Guidi Q. Does the solar cycle- sun spot numbers/ planetary AP Index have any relationship to the OPI at the data input stage of the modelling?

Current OPI is -2.96 from 6z. So we learn some more of the technique used. If certain Parameters are present the at the 500 level then the run will be discarded until they are verified. In this case the Asian anomaly .

I'm open minded so yes that's a possibility and by releasing the concept onto the forums it is for Riccardo's benefit. As I said before I wish him success. From what I see so far, I see the theory as honourable and papers written by Judah Cohen make him also the same.

I myself was one of those who felt that way. The second half of October must carry a higher percentage of the final OPI than the first half, maybe 65% to 35% . I'm the first to say I was wrong and it does now look like it could be an impressively negative OPI . Forgot to mention Lt Col Guido Guidi in my last post.

As Riccardo pointed out in first post, from today the 16th October to months end. The daily OPI figures will use more solid consolidation data from GPS, less forecast. I see the final OPI more directly based on winter in the Central European Continent. As we move further out towards the UK there would need to be an adjusted OPI for us based on geographical location. SE, East and NE coasts with less deductions and SW and Ireland with the most.(Height above sea level also a feature) Today's -3.26 is a very impressive starting point. I'm starting to see how maybe the equation for OPI was discovered by reversing through all analogs, all data from Solar minimum years(snow cover etc) a pattern was found. I'm guessing through many mathematical corrections to the OPI the equation was discovered. Very clever and observant. How many years of work for Riccardo and Mr Cohen to achieve this , I wonder.

I wanted to make a point and a hat tip to Riccardo's instinct to open the OPI thread here on Netweather. The knowledge on this forum is in itself, really a peer review. Every foreseeable question is being asked and to a high level of where the doubts and true understandings of the Index model are. Criticism is lurking for such a ground breaking method of long range forecasting. I wish him well.

Looking at the running OPI in comparison to Solar cycles 19 to 23 OPI for 1962/63 unfortunately not available guessing at a possible -4 figure. 1977 -1.75 . 1978. -0.95 both very cold and snowy UK. 1984 -1.8. 1985. -1.9 1986 -1.3 Very cold and snowy UK 1994-1996 +0.7, -0.66, -0.75 Still largely cold/snowy of UK. 2009-2011 speak for themselves. All above in coincidence with Solar minimum. All of the high positive OPI 1988, 1992, 2006,2013 (all snowless) all occurring in solar maximum. Riccardo, I hope will be able to comment on relationship between both if any, in his out coming paper. Comparison between both I used with only NW Europe region. ( UK) in mind. When the final OPI for October 2014 comes in,A better anomaly year estimate can be made. As we stand coming off double peak Solar max on the downward trend. East based QBO, and more or less weak El Niño. 2017-2022 next Solar Min I see some seriously extreme Winters inbound. OPI for those future Octobers will be very interesting.

I'm still waiting to see how the ACE index results this season. The big concern for a substantially negative OPI is the upsurge in Atlantic and Pacific TD/ Hurricanes and what effect moisture transfer has to snow cover below 60N At present these systems are zeroing in to northerly latitudes for last 10 days October

I could be having a moment . I thought the guys from EC went over to assist with software issues