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KyleHenry

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Everything posted by KyleHenry

  1. KyleHenry
    Agreed it all points to cool wet and windy last ten days of March. Grim is the word that comes to mind.
  2. KyleHenry
    "Subterranean Homesick Blues"
  3. KyleHenry
    Personally speaking I need to see one more run from UKMO in the morning just to see how much cold pooling is left on the 500 hPa level around Newfoundland region and what low pressure systems can spawn from it. It will hopefully clear any doubts by showing slight HP rises Greenland or showing none. I'm not dissing the GFS, there is one little niggle I have and it's how it is in tow with the ECMWF at the 10 hPa level and to where the PV locates to. But there is a small disconnect in its 500 hPa outcomes/ knock on effects with the ECM from the final warming Strat wave. So UKMO at 144z tomorrow morning for me is the decider.
  4. KyleHenry
    Final warming now confirmed on the ECMWF at 10 hPa inline withe the GFS http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ PV forced towards N Russia/ Svalbard region. As always until this was confirmed the models were unable to lock onto correct signal. ECM for 21st March is one distinct possibility at 500 hPa shows a polar sourced NE flow and the North and East UK Coastal regions have -8 C to -10 C uppers to deal with. It's all about the position of the PV lobes and which area they get to move Southwards. GFS in the outer FI follows with similar effect but different Synoptics to achieve same result. Interesting week coming up longevity and depth of cold air along with High pressure AZ and Scandi still to be decided. MJO forecasts are on the money this time in general phase 7 Scandi HP, short lived phase 8 with some HP around Greenland in 8-10 days time. As usual strength of sun and moisture levels available for snowfall to be decided
  5. KyleHenry
    GFS 10hPa for 17th March is forecasting a final warming event and if it's to occur, it will finish the PV for this year. Awaiting Berlin ECMWF to confirm in the next 48 hours.
  6. KyleHenry
    It's not beyond the realms of possibility to see the High pressure move Northwards as the GFS is showing in the latter stages of output. Bluearmy has pointed this possibility some days back, Cold air to sweep into Europe and the mild air replaced with a cool Easterly and not at the time of year that it's very wanted.
  7. KyleHenry
    Yeah Bluearmy the mid Strat wave 2, before yesterday the split in ECM had the main PV Siberia bound but wave 2 has corralled back to Greenland and then to Northern Scandinavia. Ridging of High pressure to the North has little chance of happening. With that I can't really argue against the GFS even in its outer FI charts with a warm up US and a Bartlett style set up for UK. As you say North South split.
  8. KyleHenry
    The ECMWF has Misfired so badly in its later output forecasts because it has failed to pick up on wave activity in the Stratosphere early next week. As it didn't read/ receive the data it sees no wave and sends PV Siberia bound. When in reality the wave is there and returns PV to Greenland. Something to ponder in the future and it opens the door for the GFS to take it's place against the UKMO for most accurate.
  9. KyleHenry
    Definite crossroad moment as to where Azores HP will eventually move to. We know the PV is on the move towards Siberia and with that looking at the ECM at 240z the AZ is indicated to sit on top of UK but the WAA pumping up the Russian High has to be watched. As the PV sets up in Siberia the Russian HP can move westwards. It's all guesswork as to what the interaction and movements are between Azores HP and Russian HP. It's this type of tricky scenario which I love most about model watching oh yeah.
  10. KyleHenry
    You've got to allow for the lag effect. You'd need low AP flux, radio flux and sun spot numbers to continue as it is now for approximately another 5/6 months to see any effect. Less energy into the tropics then the lower the forcing is on the jet stream to displace it to its traditional home North of the British Isles. Resulting in a cooler and wetter Summer. Consistency and more time needed.
  11. KyleHenry
    Completely agree, High pressure systems N Pacific and Sibera putting the squeeze and elongating the cold air away from US into North Atlantic. Unsettled is the theme and as always the UK is getting the okay dokay treatment towards the first week of March. What happens after this phase has still some interest for model watching
  12. KyleHenry
    1983 repeat? https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34227-january-and-february-1983/
  13. KyleHenry
    ECMWF 0 z at 216 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0 Is what most people have been waiting all winter. It's the first time all winter that the -20 C 850 hPa line has moved into Eastern Europe. No over excitement yet but it's 9 days away. Good N Hemisphere agreement between UKMO ,GFS and ECM at 144z
  14. KyleHenry
    At the 10 hPa level what's left of the PV is to position over Greenland Sea Northern Scandinavia with recorded temps of -72 C which is still at the extreme end. So there is still plenty of cold air circulating. Peak summer temps measure approx -36 C in August. The PV is on the wind down through natural decay from the increasing solar radiation/ tilt of planet. Still 3 weeks of Winter left but the mini SSW instead of what should have been a true SSW was the true point of no return on 28th Dec 2014. This winters waves were just not enough to allow HLB to take root and impress on the Jet stream. There's still March lol
  15. KyleHenry
    There may still be a final warming event to come. Dr Cohen has made musings towards it in last update.
  16. KyleHenry
    The only thing of note is the GFS 0z at 384 hours/19th Feb, has warming over Eastern Russia at the 10 hPa level, but the signal appears out of no where so at that time frame nothing definite.
  17. KyleHenry
    Apologies I forgot to clearly state below average March CET against average temperatures from 1981-2010. Not sub zero.
  18. KyleHenry
    True it's a big call, if only I had access to long range ECMWF or Glosea5 data. The best I've got is the climate CFS model http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=1&mode=1&carte=1&run=10 One thing I've learned this season is that the Metoffice do discuss all factors in private but only release info to public very close to the verification time ie mini SSW 28th Dec 2014. March would be outside the 30 day limit. As I said it's all down to displacement it may not work out in March, but the spoiling factors aren't as influential. Then again if March 2015 came in at -0.01 degrees C Below average I could claim a hollow victory, which I wouldn't do.
  19. KyleHenry
    Yeah I'm seeing that too, one thing about Stratospheric activity this winter is that the waiting time for next event has been very short. So if the GFS has what looks like a SSW for the 8th/9th Feb at 10 hPa then it's back to looking at Berlin charts from 2nd Feb onwards. 10 days now of very low solar energy output, if this continued say another 5 weeks along with SSW and natural decay of PV- March looks highly likely to be a negative CET month if displacement is favourable.
  20. KyleHenry
    "Well I believe in Keyser Söze and the only thing that scares me is model fanatics" Next weeks Northerly incursion is a direct result in the very short lag time between Troposphere and Stratosphere event unfolding. Height rises N America around 26th Jan. Asian a Mountain Torque event by the 31st Jan. Polar Vortex displacement is garenteed . Is it enough to indefinitely disrupt Polar Vortex? Unknown.
  21. KyleHenry
    Dr Cohen's latest thoughts http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Colder Eastern US and Scandavia up to mid Feb, NAO struggling to move negative for foreseeable. AO neutral to slightly negative.
  22. KyleHenry
    True, more study required. Is it as logical as heights upwards and propagation downwards at Scandinavian region
  23. KyleHenry
    Wow Recretos linear charts just don't cut it after viewing your 3D graphics on this Stratospheric wave one phase. You just couldn't see the traversing of all levels upwards and downwards propagation so clearly. Am i seeing this correctly is the GFS showing a Canadian warming event?
  24. KyleHenry
    East based QBO still present and hoping next wave sequence can make use of it before it goes . How this next wave phase works out regarding the troposphere is a tricky one to call, once bitten twice shy. It's very complex at present to forecast evolution. ECMWF has a trace signal at the outer limit of 240 hours showing at 10 hPa.
  25. KyleHenry
    You know looking at the ECM in the later stages with some reserve the beast is sitting waiting to move in if an opening occurs. A 1045 mb High is a match for a weakened Greenland PV. The Russians didn't cut gas supply to Eastern Europe if they didn't think it would hurt the most.
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