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KyleHenry

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  1. KyleHenry
    ECMWF oz at 216 hours has a 1050 mb high pressure system moving westwards from Central Russia. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 For some real time conditions http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=7&lon=-5.12&lat=54.53&fcTime=1421359200 Snow falling on East Coast Northern Ireland heading South East should be across to NW England within 2 hours, for those that have any confusion with on going Synoptics.
  2. KyleHenry
    Just one point if no moderate/strong El Niño shows soon the AMO will go negative meaning Arctic ice expansion past Svalbard. One of the two theories will fail and it will be known within next 10 to 20 years.
  3. KyleHenry
    You could be right all depending on cyclogenesis, possibilities of dropping below 945 mb Unsure how their data is collected or on how often updated http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-22.18,63.84,593 As you can see full on Arctic feed from North and warm air seclusion all the way from Caribbean.
  4. KyleHenry
    Some will say chaos theory but as knowledge increases and more specific understanding of key factors such as combined effect of them all, everything can be defined. What factors I.e Stratospheric waves, SSW's, SST's, QBO,MJO, Ozone, ENSO,PV, all the jet streams, NAO,AO, PDO, AMO, SAI,Solar output etc.... An answer to our current situation is in there somewhere and to few who have really studied all could in effect solve the complex puzzle of getting snow/ cold to the British Isles. Due to the difficulty of getting us to our current point it's what makes a forecast so special. But before we get here there's a possible 945 mb low pressure system to see through first. It's all good.
  5. KyleHenry
    On the rare occasions that the MJO goes into phase 7 as is the case now, the correlation of expected colder anomalies for NW Europe has come true. GEFS had the strongest signal for this phase of MJO. Probabilities say it had to be correct once in a while.
  6. KyleHenry
    I think ourselves and Scotland is taking this one on the kisser. Storm was been modelled further to the North and the South but at two days out I don't think the GFS is going to be to far out. Question of how big a mb drop will remain to be seen after event. Bin day is Thursday as well if they can find it.
  7. KyleHenry
    From what we've observed so far from Solar Cycle 24, signs are showing of a continued peak at maximum level from October 2014 to present. It's still early to make a call but SC24 does appear to becoming a longer cycle in duration than previous cycles. As stated in many papers SC 24 could extend out to 12-14 years. http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/ An interesting read with logical thinking behind idea.
  8. KyleHenry
    ECMWF @240 hours, Is the first clear opportunity for a long time to see possible height rises up into Greenland . If and a tentative if the ECM has the correct pattern, high pressure will allow radiation cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean reducing SST and putting a halt to the mass spawning of polar lows. The difference is that if true with model, there is no spoiling factor to disrupt this outcome. We all watch and see then.
  9. KyleHenry
    Agreed, If anything the information release from the Metoffice gives us a better insight into how good a model Glosea 5 is and that their working knowledge of the Stratosphere is of big interest to the MetO. The impression given is that they knew since December that it would not evolve into a SSW but only released that information now as event was 100% clearly not going to happen. Even with Fu Berlin data not updating most recognised this also to be true and the timings of complete confirmation were equal.
  10. KyleHenry
    Kevin I'm far from having any true expertise or credentials in solar influence's on earths climate ( complete ametuer) All I've deduced is from those that have and the data recorded from those scientists that have put the findings out there. An uptick in Solar activity has been ongoing for the last 6 months. Sunspots, AP index and Radio flux all on the up going into this 2014/15 winter season. Sunspot numbers have totalled 90- 125 daily since October 2014. Even with a -QBO and high October Eurasian snow cover, it can be overwritten by this increased solar activity if sustained over a certain period of time. Had we not been in a -QBO period I would have expected a predominantly westerly mobile winter with a strong Greenland PV. The -QBO is merely acting as a substantial block and disrupting PV more than could be expected during this stage of solar cycle 24. Your knowledge of British weather history is second to none. Of every historic extreme British winter they all came around the solar minimum. Same for solar max in summer the highest temps come in these years. NW Europe is clearly affected by solar output cold and warm. 1978/79 came after a period of combined cold PDO and AMO where world temps had dropped some 0.8 C. I wish I knew exacts in references to low pressure system above Kara Sea. Extra heat to tropics creating gravity waves , preventing preferred MJO phase and allowing Kara Sea LP to breakout. AMO flip forecasted within 4-5 years, solar cycle 25 to commence 2019, then which ever year has a -QBO, we in theory will have another extreme once in a lifetime British winter.
  11. KyleHenry
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
  12. KyleHenry
    Big thanks Tony, as always regarding the Stratospheric waves a person must be over cautious and patient. Prior to Berlin enjoying holiday leave it did look like both MT event and wave 2 were coming in stronger than forecasted. 6th January it is then and the lag time.
  13. KyleHenry
    Flying blind this year at such a key time, maybe Tony can get the data from Matt Hugo or Ryan Maue via Twitter if possible otherwise we will be revising after the event has passed. An update from Dr Cohen is only other option.
  14. KyleHenry
    Wave 1 has produced much higher temps at the 1 hPa level than forecasted http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Dec 27th. 25C, Dec 28th 35C and Dec 29th 35C. Would be good to see the same result for wave 2. Up the 192 hours the split and elongation of PV is there for all level before forecasted to rejoin. So far so good and good things to come
  15. KyleHenry
    Forget about what is happening at 10 days plus for just a moment. Can we all agree that all models at 0 hours are now showing a WAA presently advancing poleward on the Pacific side of Northern Hemisphere. And that we are currently mid way through a 25C mountain torque event at 1 hPa level. This is not a distant model prediction but real time Synoptics the here and now so to speak. Which I prefer more than anything hard data facts. The ECM has an Arctic HP showing at only 120 z, the UKMO at 144 hours. GFS old school the same with a little more delay 162z. In my book an Arctic HP is a rare bird to see especially at the turn of a new year. So from what we see in the here and now who wouldn't be happy. Would you rather see a -80 C Super PV that will not breakdown and huge rainfall with mild temps. I'd think no.
  16. KyleHenry
    I'm seeing it. GFS old school is following along a similar path but with a stronger WAA up into Pole Pacific side. This weeks models will be very intriguing
  17. KyleHenry
    There's no doubt about it Judah Cohen's work is outstanding and precise. For his own reputation he was willing away the limpet Aleutian low pressure system and at last it does go. I'm looking at current warming at 1 hPa level on ECMWF if the warming stays at current temperatures 25C for next few days then the ongoing Asian MT event will result in SSW within 14 days. MT events always needs to be revised after event has concluded to see that it did cause the SSW. Which it mostly does. As Matt Hugo States the timing of all events is following 2012/13 to a tee. Where the PV goes is the $64,000 question.
  18. KyleHenry
    ECMWF at 240 hours (cautiously) has a North Pole High showing. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 If the split PV flows this exact path the Eurasian portion can only go Central Europe bound, deep cold (British Ises included)
  19. KyleHenry
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=12&nh=1&archive=0 at 144 hours. High pressure in Bering Sea, possibilities of Trying to link with Arctic HP via WAA and in sync with wave 2 movements. It's all conjecture at this point but US to get lobe of PV with -AO coming. As for British Isles still can't see pattern yet all options still on the table including Greenland/ Scandi Blocking.
  20. KyleHenry
    Very fast progression, ninja style. Tony are you seeing a central Arctic Ocean ridge forming if that's an impossible question to answer then ignore
  21. KyleHenry
    It's a possibility wave 1 ongoing in stratosphere pushing PV Canada bound at present. Wave 2 coming round from Pacific side could in effect push it our way or towards central Arctic Ocean. Where the down well goes is uncertain for 14 days approximately.
  22. KyleHenry
    MT event via ECMWF Berlin well underway http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html At 96 hours the peak temperature forecast to be 30 Degrees Celsius assassination of PV at 1 hPa level. U winds on 10 hPa level at 60 degrees showing reversal at - 20m/s High concentration of Ozone BDC above Bering Sea http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/monthly_2014-12_NH.html Keeping the warming on Atlantic and Eurasian side of NH. Waiting to see where down welling could occur. I agree with Snowking Canada to Canadian Arctic Ocean for bulk of PV as it presently stands. Leaves cold for UK to come from PM shots and until down welling results. Greenland and Scandinavian ridging both still an option with the Scandi having a higher percentage chance.
  23. KyleHenry
    ECMWF 12z at 96 hours is showing the dilemma ongoing, WAA up into Greenland or WAA up into Scandinavia with the PV/lobes blocking each path on different model runs as the ridge looks for an opening to move towards higher latitudes. Air hockey at its best
  24. KyleHenry
    It's the movement and form of the polar vortex that is the root cause of all the model mayhem and flip flopping. Watch the progress of the PV and it's lobes up to 96 hours and you can get a better read on where the models will go. As we stand the PV is situated at the Eurasian side of NH. Models keep trying to find the right placement hence the variation on the runs
  25. KyleHenry
    It's the polar vortex and the predicated movement of cold air mass that is causing all the models such difficulty. As we stand the large percentage of the PV and lobes are situated on Arctic/Eurasian side of NH. This is shown on all models at 0z. Hence the original signal for WAA up into Greenland. As each model attempts to predict movement of the PV back towards Greenland. We begin to see signs of an Easterly Scandi High with us the UK providing the WAA. JMA shows Aleutian ridge anomaly over next 5-8 days. This was the signal we had previously which in turn was to retrogress towards Greenland. Models at present say no to this. Add the Stratosphere wave activity and Shannon entropy is a certainty. The behemoth that is the PV holds all the answers. As it is currently under wave attack only a select few can come close to forecasting movements/ outcome. Each model run to flip flop for the foreseeable as said by many on here. Any bashing of the models during this period is unwarranted as the ability to smoothly predict weather output through this process is currently beyond our technology, for now. Watch the pattern of movement from the Vortex and lobes to get a better read on the 10 day outcomes.
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