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KyleHenry

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  1. KyleHenry
    Yes these charts are classed as FI. As Knocker alluded to, very interesting, because if we forwarded on another 48 hrs, cold air would flood the UK along a N Easterly wind flow. So we stay grounded and base our predictions on probability. Confidence in level of charts coming to fruition on this outcome are much, much higher than normal. Why? Because several other major dynamic factors in progress. MJO-high orbit 8 Further upstream pattern changes from East Asia/ N Pacific which increases amplification in N Atlantic region.Significant warming event in Stratosphere (SSW) which causes major fatal decay of the Polar vortex.Anom z 500 also add to confirmation confidence.Not going to discuss snowfall too much but all these factors should fill a person with great expectations. For those that doubt. The gentleman known as Ian Ferguson has been dropping hints for quite some time as to the upcoming pattern inregards to a colder UK. Exact details of where and when are still to be decided but from 5th March onwards is the time to watch from.
  2. KyleHenry
    Hi John, I follow the NOAA but that can be further improved upon by following pattern further upstream. East Asian mountain torque event from 48hours ago. With Aleutians low pressure moving position amplifying pattern which is now interacting with the Rockys. That will produce more upstream amplification within next 48hours in Atlantic region. Charts will then change in accordance.
  3. KyleHenry
    First phase of the pattern change to cold begins Within 48hours. There is much, much more to come as the models slowly react to the Trop/Strat coupling. Models can't get a hold of the vast changes coming to fruition but the signs are starting to show in FI. We should within the next 5-7 days start to see the real potential coming our way. That should start shortly after the 5th March and weeks following by displaying deep penetrating WAAs into polar region. Especially one through Greenland to give us a -NAO. Some may say it's too late but the cold air is there and is about to be unlocked. Just as I say that the ECM at 240z shows the potential.
  4. KyleHenry
    It is only one run so I'm taking dynamics with intrepid caution. GFS showing wave 1 having different effect on PV. It portrays predicted SSW mark 2 to gain access to 1hPa in Eurasian zone rather than East Asia. This if true changes everything for us in Europe by 5th March 2016. More to watch maybe prolonged cold spell with -NAO. MJO into sector/ high orbit 8 as shown.
  5. KyleHenry
    A fair point, to my simplistic post. Here is my thoughts from source to completion when I have referred to MT event. Winter 2015/16's key factor has been ongoing El Niño. Yes many other factors WQBO, low solar flux, strong PV etc. +PDO in an El Niño year.Huge oceanic kelvin waves downwelling creating wave trains of moisture and kinetic energy Westwards along the equator towards ENSO region 4. Rossby wave bands emit from IO when MJO is in phases 2/3/4 from Autumn through WinterWHen the build up of energy is sufficient, it will break out in more numerous waves. They must ajoin with wave 1 at crucial timing which is what we saw with brief SSW at the beginning of this month. I view the Aleutian Low and its moving of position as key in allowing the Eastward movement of Siberian High. This eastward movement in my opinion acts as a stepping stone for the kinetic energy to achieve interaction with lower Stratosphere. With the PV situated over Greenland, it proves the most logical entry point for that energy to enter. Due to the strength of this seasons PV, O3 ozone was prevented until beginning of Feruary to assist in process. Now look at current Rossby wave dynamics ongoing courtesy of Michael Ventrice at WSI. It allows greater opportunity for kinetic energy to get to 1 hPa level and allow downwelling. Not only that the effects of brief SSW, is now pushing Tropospheric air down towards Eastern U.S. This tilts PV and could allow another SSW or impressive final warming event. It will require Siberian High pressure to move eastwards and it will require alignment of ongoing waves to propagate next possible SSW. It is my hypothetical theory and is open to discussion, bear in mind I am an amateur enthusiast. I hope this is a clearer description of what I mean by + MT/ EAMT event.
  6. KyleHenry
    MT nonsense? East Pacific LP system and Siberian HP. It may not evolve as shown in chart below but when NEPAC LP moves position it allows Siberian HP mass to move Eastwards over Kamchatka/ East Russian Highlands creating a + MT event on the down slope.
  7. KyleHenry
    That is a possibility. This next forecasted MT event is still not confirmed but what has me interested is if it verifies and following Tropospheric response we could find our long lost -NAO,only Spring/Summer as usual.
  8. KyleHenry
    For the UK it's a no. We are currently and will be in the cool mix but only at the outer edges of what Dr Cohen speaks of.That will be for the next 7 days then the PV reforms. There is a reversal at the 10hPa level, but it only persists for approximately 48 hours as shown by charts below. Yes to a -AO, yes to record temperatures and yes to the tropospheric response. The fact remains that it is very short lived. From my point of view it is a SSW, but only the briefest of SSW.
  9. KyleHenry
    Time wise it is all a formality. Second forecasted +MT event in outer range of GFS, will be a swift end to the vortex. Let it be said that if it verifies, it won't be classed as a final warming event as it is too early. Cold Spring early Summer anyone?
  10. KyleHenry
    Temperatures, ice sheet,altitude, geographical position.
  11. KyleHenry
    Very interesting, below is a chart that shows the ENSO pattern during periods of lower solar output. As radiation/radio flux decreases. Thermal dynamics causes the heat storage of the Pacific Ocean to create a more +PDO.
  12. KyleHenry
    Logical and clear. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Above is a link for NAO data from 1950-2015. Courtesy of NOAA. From this data you can observe the periods of +NAO and -NAO and compare them with 11 year solar cycles. For example take Summer 2008 to the beginning of 2011, here we see the NAO in a near constant state of negative, slightly below neutral to short periods of substantial negative. From 2011 to present, as we are in a state of 80% +NAO in conjunction with peak of solar cycle 24. Expect NAO to begin trending more and more negative from 2017-2022. Natural cycles of Geo-Physical atmospherics. Back to minor SSW ECMWF has peak at 10C.
  13. KyleHenry
    Great post above. Wave 1 reaches peak on 25th January. There is a second burst of Kinetic energy on the 29th January. Although not as strong as initial. The ECMWF supports GEFS on this forecast. GEFS forecast double phase approximately 7 days ago which at the time appeared to be an error.
  14. KyleHenry
    The ECMWF model has edged into range of the GEFS in regards to the very early beginnings of a mountain torque event (Asia). Pre-cursor to a SSW. Wave 1 is well underway and it is comparison time for forecasted kinetic energy against actual kinetic energy. Aka temperatures shown on models. Confidence increases for SSW to occur (85%). Watch Recretos' 3D graphic modelling of the raw data instead of a linear chart for best understanding.
  15. KyleHenry
    Wave 1 energy remains present as the commencement of EAMT on 31st Jan. -10 m/s reversal creeps down to 5hPa level.
  16. KyleHenry
    If you follow this link for visual gif of EAMT event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/908-stratosphere-thread/ Series of strong atmospheric Kelvin waves out of Indian Ocean area have been emitted over this month, higher AAM. If you observe the placement and region of the upcoming energy wave it iminates from Himalayan mountain plateau in turn it becomes a pre cursor to a SSW in upper Stratosphere.
  17. KyleHenry
    I'll post charts for you.
  18. KyleHenry
    In short yes, but the exact details of Temperatures/energy are not confirmed. What makes this a possible major SSW is longevity of the strong PV and the combination of wave 1 followed by Mountain torque event. Very exciting to observe.
  19. KyleHenry
    As you say Bluearmy, peak strength at 90m/s then a dissolution to 40m/s from wave 1. The GFS follows wave 1 with an EAMT event/SSW in quick succession at months end. If GFS is correct with the double phase action, then wave 1 pins PV down and allows EAMT/SSW to dominate PV and in conjunction with its natural decay. Demoralisation to jubilation is a better route.
  20. KyleHenry
    Has any one got a date for last Canadian warming event? Up coming MT event in Asia, it hyper contracts the PV towards Europe. With this synoptic pattern, is this required for CW to occur with a Rockies MT event?
  21. KyleHenry
    FU Berlin ECM should be picking signal up by the 10th Jan
  22. KyleHenry
    Signal picked up by GFS 06z at outer limits for a big wave event. Is this the knockout blow?
  23. KyleHenry
    Chart below is outer FI but not beyond the realms of possibility due to upstream patterns and Tropospheric pulses ongoing. Current WAA in process is the initial pattern change which creates the Kara High and allows -ve AO to evolve. In the meantime we must traverse through 10-14 days of +NAO and with that LP systems & more flooding. If this next possible future WAA, is in the position shown,it will lead onto ridging up through Greenland and create -ve NAO. Then we can talk Omega and easterly with confidence. Keep the faith.
  24. KyleHenry
    This passage of phases has a look of a 2 day glancing blow of -8C 850 mb line to East Coast of UK especially E coast of Scotland. Are we agreed that of most importance is that the Kara HP survives and holds. It will allow retrogression to enable -AO and within 14 days a structured -NAO and all that follows regarding extended cold period for entire UK. What is certain for next 14 days is a +NAO under a colder NW air stream and heavy rainfall to NW and SW UK coasts.
  25. KyleHenry
    AO to go negative through retrogression which would allow NAO to go neutral/ slightly negative for a short time. Logically NAO would then rebound into positive phase for approx 10 days before it could go negative without any interference.
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