KyleHenry

Agreed. An interesting study of ozone and the 1 hPa level http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020576/full In which they declare processes at the 1hPa level are more predictable when studying O3 in Northern Hemisphere summers. States processes at the 1hPa level are set in motion up to a decade ago based on O3 levels at that time from summer data.

The 1hPa level I find has more factors of influence. First you've got the increase in wave altitude that progresses during January. Added to that we have to look above and towards the solar output. Lower 10.7 radio flux creates shrinkage of the thermosphere and the mesosphere as Earth enters solar minimum. Effects of energetic particles from the steady increase of protons released from coronal holes on sun's surface. Them the chemical reactions at that altitude with Ozone and CO2 and in some years with cooling effect of SO2 with volcanic eruptions. Then return to Rossby wave breaking which increases O3 in the Northern hemisphere. Kenetic energy contained within the Rossby waves at the particle level. Then differations in geo barclinic heights. No small feat to attain a clear understanding of these physical and chemical interactions within the atmosphere of earth and effectual outcome of them. Back to the warming event forecasted Jan 21-25. It appears borderline for a reversal at 10hPa, too early to make 100% claim just yet. GFS going for multiple warming and SSW. Waiting for Berlin to come into time scale.

Stratosphere warming event. Wave 1 is already circumnavigating. Is this wave 2 from MJO activity? Time will tell.

Interitus, I am in agreement with you 100% in your excellent and detailed post, right up until the end paragraph. "So it appears that there is a tropospheric Rossby wavenumber 1 forcing originating from ridging on the Atlantic side, propagating to the stratosphere creating a baroclinic vortex. The mechanism as described accounts for both the vortex shape and warming observed. No need for spurious or speculative mountain torques or wave interactions, just standard troposphere/stratosphere wave/mean flow interaction." Is it spurious? Is it not merely observing the model output and commenting on why the output is displaying the increased activity in the East Asian Strat sector? MJO chart which I originally posted showed slight amplification towards sector 5. Model reads that as poleward propagation of Rossby/gravity waves. Results in forecasted chart. Wave signals 1&2 remain undefined at this range. I don't know what energy will emit from MJO forecast if any. Too early to call. Supporting factors for giving it any credence: La Niña phase default is Millar B pattern Also reason why SSWs occur less in La Niña as Rossby waves struggle to permeate easterly winds created by N Pacific HP ridge. That has changed due to N Pacific HP retrogressing to create upcoming -AO phase. Reversation to Westerly winds as Low pressure systems are forecast for Kamchatka region and possible Rossby wave propagation. Possible if models are correct. Origin of the added energy forecasted was the basis of my original post.

Nice attitude you got there. You asked me this question last year and that answer still stands. Low pressure in North Pacific allows Indian Ocean rossby wave energy transfer to lower/upper Stratosphere via Hymalayan mountain range. Low pressure systems spawning from the Trop PV over Kamchatka region adds the amplification to allow Rossby wave energy to progress to 10hPa level. Enough energy=SSW. High pressure in N Pacific=No East Asian mountain torque event.

Teleconections. -EPO currently. North Pacific HP replaced by Low pressure systems. Imitate pattern change. Wave train from MJO sector 5 Low pressure in East Asia allows warming (East Asia MT event).

Agreed. For the UK there is one very important teleconection especially in La Niña years, the EPO/WPO. Models can get a good downstream read on this pattern. Its the models reading of Tropispheric PV lobe placement which leads to failure. North Pacific high pressure will always dictate MLB for the UK. The ECMWF now shows wholesale change with HP replaced with LP. That allows inhanced SSW opportunity in East Asia. He who can program the correct algorithms for Trop PV movement will be king predictor.

The elusive Canadian stratospheric warming event. If it evolves as GFS predicts then cold Feb inbound ala 1980's style. *Warning* It is the GFS 6z.

Need more amplification/energy showing in the MJO sectors of the model. The WQBO, polar vortex will eat the lesser energy transfers up. The IO needs to build on this current phase and only then can discussions of a SSW can occur.

Could be, Indian Ocean MJO running at 50% in La Niña conditions. Quite a powerful wave train emanated out of sector 3/COD. GFS (outer limit) now showing a trace of energy transfer to 10 hPa. It's something to at least monitor. Merry Christmas everyone.

I'm putting the likleyhood of a split at < 20%. We are going Millar B set up. Long range the GFS has the snoptics right for UK pattern. Dependant on strength of wave 2. It can only shift PV enough for MLB of Azores and brieflly touching HLB. Probibility shows MLB of Azores and approximately 6 weeks (if no SSW evolves) to shift pattern to Millar A and allow Azores HP to propagate upwards. That then dictates February to be the month for blocking to get a foothold. Strong wave 2 required but at present it does NOT appear to have enough energy.

The opportunity is definitely there and Synoptics are showing a decent period of time to allow wave 2 to mature. Its all about the energy and how much it can muster. Great to observe. GFS shows enough energy to move and elongate PV. Buffering and dampening but not destroying....yet.

Head must always rule the heart with Geophysics. Last years' super El Niño and WQBO dictated the entire season, as shown with the failed SSW. In effect was there any doubt to the outcome. 2016/17 a definite transition year, hence the difficulty in attaining a clear signal. My attention is drawn to earth's proximity to the Sun as we speed up and reach the perihelion. Increased solar magnetism and WQBO will anchor the upper Stratospheric PV to Greenland zone. Until we exit perihelion at start of January 2017. (3 weeks) Tropospheric PV becomes the player if a change is to occur, a change to colder.

O3 may be the big decider this year. Highest concentration is positioned in Canadian zone. Wave 2 may get a surprising boost if BDO increases over the next 3 weeks. Higher O3, tropospheric displacement,tropic forcing and strong wave 2. All in for the next three weeks.

I have observed them to be approximately 85% to 90% accurate in terms of the actual event but as to how much energy the wave contains that will have to be verified when ECMWF on Berlin Uni site reaches the 25th October. For the professionals they have GLOSEA5,ECMWF and GFS to compare in the here and now but cannot disclose.

Been waiting for effect of MT event in early October to evolve. SOI showing a neutral balance from slightly positive to negative. Delicate balancing. Last years Kara Sea High still resinates, an indicator of transition to Solar min. I believe the OPI prediction will work this year as there is no El Niño and a less energy from the Sun.

With so many changes to the model output. The pattern I see is the 19th for the beginning of the much anticipated results of the SSW for UK. Hit or miss?

It's all just a waiting game, we know the science and what should occur from atmospheric processes. Within next 7 days GFS has Trop PV moving to Siberia. It leaves an opening for heights to gain access to Greenland. If so, how far westward will the cold pool get? The cold is there.

ECMWF 0z shows WAA push into polar region via UK on the 14th March.If it goes through with purpose, it will close the door behind it and allow Siberian air to move westward towards UK. Whatever the outcome will be. It is going to be very fascinating to watch this process play out.

We may well see the WAA traverse up through UK as showing from a cross range of models.Hence a windy warm blast of Spring showing. Can't see GLOSEA5 charts but the MJO current charts have me feeling more confident.

It's only beginning. Then await downwell as below So 11th March to get -AO. After that who knows what will occur. Should be WAA's into polar region with HL blocking within 5 days. Where that will happen we need to see.

More pressure.

The AO remains only slightly negative. We should soon be seeing a much more pronounced -AO with WAA's feeding into the polar region. Free to view models are just not factoring this in yet. Which will then indicte to us at what heights the free to view models take their data from by comparing emergence of a more -AO on the Synoptics to the position of the downwelling SSW. A good insight to have regarding the working models we use.

ECMWF has Saturday as the coldest day of this episode.

Absolutely agree and until the SSW 2nd March to 6th March completes. There is no way that the models can get an exact grasp on the synoptical outcome just yet. Until the downwelling process and it's effects complete, then current outputs past these dates will show major swings. It will produce one key point and that is which model runs the best algorithms from the available data to get as close to actual outcome and be the first to do it. Glosea5 has this crown overall. It will Interesting to see which public free to view model comes next. After SSW completes, only then would I consider throwing in the towel for cold/ snow Synoptics.