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KyleHenry

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Everything posted by KyleHenry

  1. KyleHenry
    Wave 2 and Tropispheric forcing putting serious pressure on PV, if the timings hold to current schedule. Even a super strength PV can't take a Chinese arm burn. More pressure will be needed to keep on top of reformation but there is much to like.
  2. KyleHenry
    One point of note from GFS and GFS(P) is that from 108 hours onwards the ridging shows a constant 1050 mb.
  3. KyleHenry
    Complex and fascinating. European WAA up first, allows us to see how high a latitude the ridging can get and how strong HP system can become. Euro WAA requires the assistance from US West coast WAA to become more established. Too much ridging over an extended period from US WAA hampers latitude of where Scandinavian/Kara ridge establishes by not allowing Trop vortex to move back towards Northern Canada. It is great model viewing.
  4. KyleHenry
    WAA Europe assisted by WAA light on US West Cosast as it prevents further Cold air pool assisting Greenland 496Dam increasing and so allows more time for WAA Europe to hold. Kara Sea HP to take hold.
  5. KyleHenry
    You are ready in my opinion to give your theory on how earth circularity/atmospheric systems work. From 100Hpa to 1 Hpa and all exterior influences. The reason why is because you are more in tune with all factors and I know this from bardarbunga eruption and your interest in its process. That you could give your hypothesis of the physics involved. Bricklayer's opinion has prompted in his post enough for you to give a similar reply and in my opinion a more detailed surmise. If you do, I know in advance that I will agree to the logic you will use. If not I wait for your scientific paper disclosing your thoughts with antisapation. Merry Christmas my friend to you and your family,
  6. KyleHenry
    Latest GFS at 384z has lost the warming but placed the wave and position of the core cold Siberia bound, we know from previous years that the GFS is reliable at picking up signal but can be out by 7-14 days. We are at the interesting point of the year and I see us looking at Strat charts on Christmas Day.
  7. KyleHenry
    The signal is faint but in the outer reaches of GFS at 384z on 7th January 2016 could be the beginning of the elusive SSW. More runs needed.
  8. KyleHenry
    The strength of the ++NAO, and the low pressure systems it sends our way. The upcoming WAA has no foundation from the East to allow it traction to hold and as ever it will be steamrolled East wards. This is the first true attempt to change the pattern. Indian Ocean forcing to finally dissipate and +PNA emerges at years end. Then the hold of El Niño ends and more fluidity to our pattern with assistance from SSW.
  9. KyleHenry
    Close but just too large a pool of DAM 496 air over Greenland to put in any resistance. ECMWF has the correct pattern, whereas the GFS has lost pattern past 144z. We all know what that means,2/3 week wait for next chance. Painful as it is to accept for others we are peak El Niño phase for NW Europe but it's no 1997, the year of no winter.
  10. KyleHenry
    One factor is where Brewer Dobson concentration forms and for it to locate in the correct Geo planetary position (which it currently is) can assist the EAMT events. As it heats Stratosphere via UV rad it can form a bridge or a target for Trop wave to advance towards in altitude. May not be enough during this wave phase but you just feel it will by the next if all continues as is.
  11. KyleHenry
    ECMWF wants a -AO with a 1040 mb HP.
  12. KyleHenry
    That (little bomb) and the rest that follows it over next 14 days really is a tropospheric clay pigeon launcher of warm air that fuels the upcoming MT event. Coinciding with Ozone concentrations in that launch area, the El Niño has possibly peaked. It does look like Winter Solstice 22nd Dec for SSW opportunity.
  13. KyleHenry
    The pattern of growth is all about Bering Sea and NW US/Canada for next Three weeks.
  14. KyleHenry
    Comparison chart to ozone concentration. Just a friendly nudge into the beast. Or a Will Carling tackle on Jonah Lomu.
  15. KyleHenry
    I'm watching BDO, concentration and it does link geographically to area of the warming at 10 hPa.
  16. KyleHenry
    Comparisons to Winter of 2009/10 are a false dawn. Even though analog years have some upper pattern similarities. Similar to 2009 NW Europe and Eastern U.S. are heading towards an above average November/December, 2 metre temps. You only have to look at 10hPa levels pattern and temperatures on GFS archives to see the difference is vast. Compare Ozone concentration in Dobson Units on map and see that the totals in 2009 far out weigh 2015. http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_g.htm
  17. KyleHenry
    Not this time, the signal can be picked out at approx 300z on GFS and further if you can read other atmospheric drivers. When the warming is detected, 9 times out of 10 it will occur give or take approx 1 week. There is always a but, even when event occurs the pattern still needs to be positioned correctly for NW Europe to be flooded with cold air at surface. So with super El Niño ongoing a late event, end of Jan 2016 is more likely. If this year doesn't work out, one of the winters from 2016-2023 will produce another 2009/2010 event for us if not more blocked pattern due to solar min and in one which is an EQBO. No stress involved when you trust the Strat.
  18. KyleHenry
    Lock down mode in place from surface through to trophisphere. Stratosphere included and it comes as no surprise due to strength of El Niño. Will do for next 8 weeks minimum. What it does mean is the cold air is tightly contained. The break out I feel will be impressive when it's released.
  19. KyleHenry
    As you say Fergie, regarding OLR. The 4th Kelvin wave has begun down welling in region ENSO 1.2. Hence the opening for a westerly wind burst pushing MJO into phase 2. MJO will most likely return to COD and emerge back into phases 5 or 6. El Niño is king driver until it's demise. The levels of thermal energy stored in the Pacific sink just shows how much it dictates global weather patterns.
  20. KyleHenry
  21. KyleHenry
    MJO predicted to go into strong phase 2 but it does walk the line of phase 1, which has added interest for us. El Niño upstream pattern causing strong ++NAO to lower Greenland temps. NW wind source for UK, temps lowered with cold SSTs. First snows for the Highlands look likely.
  22. KyleHenry
  23. KyleHenry
    The first forecasted -50C at 10hPa. Courtesy of http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
  24. KyleHenry
    MJO will be contained for some time, interesting to see which sector it will break out at. Also when it will as El Niño continues current pattern.
  25. KyleHenry
    http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8695/2015/acp-15-8695-2015.html Paper more akin to 2017 onwards.
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