KyleHenry

Hypothesis. There is no reference made by me as to having any expertise, I put out an idea for discussion or rebuttal.

Yes I will stand corrected on that point. Should have explained my definition was an analogy in terms of visualising temperatures. If we both observe -84C at the upper PV, then we know it’s strength and dynamics. if we see the upper core of a hurricane/typhoon at -72C then we know it’s towards a category 5.

I’ll save you some time. https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/magnetosphere2.html https://www.space.com/6229-earth-atmosphere-breathes-rapidly-thought.html Look at the working mechanism of the PV. The Tropopause and the stratopause are fluid are not only in geographical position but also in heights. Similar to a hurricane, the PV strength/weakness relies on convection. The lower the temperatures that both can attain then the stronger the inertia to be broken down. The mesophere has been measured by satellites to expand and contract. Hence why I give my hypothesis as to the whys of this winters characteristics.

Many, including myself have been scratching our heads as to why this winter, when the conditions have been so perfect for a loosening of the Polar jet and expansionism of cold air into the lower latitudes has not occurred. Signals consistantly showing via the models of HLB in Scandinavia & Greenland, yet failing to materialise each time in terms of predicted longevity. MJO entered sector 3 which is now culminating in EAMT event=Stratospheric wave 1 and yet as we approached finalisation point it has decreased in amplitude. No SSW, merely elongation of the PV which does show that even a weaker wave will create enough stress to contort vortex and allow intermissional cold break outs at the Tropispheric level. Just that unless sustained pulses/waves occurs, then it will return to default position. Why so? That we are still on the decent to solar minimum. With that said the sun is continuing to emit bursts of protons/cm3. Negative NAOs struggle to develop in these conditions. Hence the failing of current wave to split PV. Geomagnetic bursts charge the magnetosphere add expand it outwards. This permits all levels to elongate and acts as a dampener to wave pulses. The PV has additional upward momentum and hence becomes more taught adding strength.

Let me see if I can help, the cyclones that they are referring to regarding interference are those occurring in the Indian Ocean. That body of water is included in forecasting MJO phases. What we have are several cyclones moving poleward, it is unclear what amount of energy is contained in these storms, therefore difficulty in calculating effect. Initial forecasts stemmed from that enormous Pacific energy wave in mid October as shown below This in turn due to its magnitude created a split in PV via Tropospheric upwelling. It was a very large sigma event. Since then the Pacific had went dormant until now. Typhoon Tembin has now formed as forecasted. It is this typhoon that will create the modelled Pacific WAA and upcoming -AO. Models have forecasted a 2nd Pacific NW Typoon which has not materialised as yet. There will be two pulses of significant statospheric energy waves. The issue now is what magnitude of energy will they contain. At present they look to not contain enough to attain a full reversal at 60N @ 10 hPa level. Hence the readjustment of GP’s and S Murr’s thoughts. There will be cold incursions from this event but unlikely to hold unless energy contained inside these wave breaking phases is misjudged by models. Finally January is not a forgone conclusion until we reach the 20th day of the month, but the remainder of December is. The Pacific could very well go into full activation mode and create a SSW. Energy contained and storm activity are the unknowns, hence the readjustment to forecast. Personnally I’ll be looking at the next phase of Typhoon/cyclone activity after this one around the 10th Jan 2018. Then we will have a better understanding of what’s to come for the UK.

We witnessed the opposite during the Atlantic Hurricane season. Then the Tropopause heights increased upwards into the stratosphere. Allowed more convection and increased ACE index plus landfall storms.

PV reforming/condensing with the predicted wave activity. Wave creating a tilt so Canadian sector heights increase. Stratopause lowers in height from mesosphere level. Hence the differential in the two heights.

Definitely interesting with the wind speeds reaching a record low from previous season’s data. There is that dual issue arising. PV running at 20 m/sec but a lack of energy to complete the reversal. Pacific being so dormant and not providing the necessary energy into the wave. It’s all about the thermodynamics and the super El Niño of (2015) that released so much heat/energy. PV displaced poleward, U winds down to approximately 5 m/sec is the best call I could make. As I said before we have the Troposphere to create colder interludes for the start of January 2018, but I’d need to see a SSW to visualise an extended period of cold for NW Europe. Nothing is set in stone and depending on fruition of the forecasted twin Pacific storms then models may change. If not mid January 2018 for the next window of opportunity.

Gefs’ phantom wave signal at the 300 hour range is just not containing enough energy to reverse the U winds Reversal was there for the taking, but it matters not this year as the Troposphere is calling the shots. Pacific is to waken with two forecasted Super Typhoons at the 240z range. Pacific WAA getting the nitro. New Rossby wave formation in the period 25th-29th December. Nothing too exciting but no stagnation either.

I'm observing ozone concentration in terms of relationship to other ongoing key factors. There is currently no Stratosphere/Troposphere coupling. Tropopause has extended In height through Autumn. Low solar. Northern Hemispheric Ozone concentration percentage is up in comparison to years without key factors. Ongoing wave activity which will displace PV off default position. Most significantly, less BDU above PV default position in atmosphere above Greenland results in less cooling, lessens convection at heights inside PV and in turn the PV is weakened by being unable to anchor at its default position. Noted that in years without these factors ozone transfer from Southern Hemisphere doesn't occur until mid Jan onwards. Ozone is not an overriding factor but in a specific alignment of key components, it becomes an assisting factor. * Not inferring this winter will be like 2010. Using it as an extreme example.

Brewer Dobson Unit analysis. 24/11/2017. 25/11/2017. 30/11/2014. 24/11/2010. Deviations of Ozone % in key geographical areas during both cold and mild NW European winters, I will let the reader decipher the differences on their own.

Big tease. We can see why it is running with the split around the 7th November. GFS is reading the current east based Rossby formation, followed by another large sigma event in sector 3,4 or 5 of the MJO and equating that with a PV split at the 10 hPa level. Possible but far too early. One definite, is that this current Tropospheric amplification phase will show a repeat cycle again within 21 days. Model thread to be sent barmy, with switches from extreme cold to mild and vice versa every 36 hours.

Question. Where do you surmise energy eminates from to allow temp rises in the Stratosphere and in those rare occasions what source/ sources of energy/geophysical conditions combine to produce a SSW? If I'm looking for say an EAMT event. I look to MJO sector 3, and a significant break out from the COD region. Tropospheric HP needs to be aligned in the correct geographical position. This I believe this acts as a springboard towards access to the lower Stratosphere. The PV needs to be in the correct angular momentum at the exact time of this event to accept the energy transfer and allow wave 1 or 2 to progress into a SSW. Otherwise the wave is restricted in its strength to break through. I am also aware of the PV undulating in heights during rotation and convection phase of the Northern hemispheric winter period. To which this also adds an extra energy source for temp rises at the Strat level. Energic particles from solar radiation of the ionosphere down to the mesosphere and possibly lower, is another theory that I need more study of, regarding knowledge of all sources from which energy transfers into Strat. There is clearly a multilayered process, therefore there is a multilayered answer. But there is an answer. The MJO, I believe a major key component in finding such an answer to forecast specific events in conjunction with above mentioned phases.

I used that specific chart to show when the GFS first picked up this large sigma event in sector 5. Then attempt to estimate arrival time of kinetic energy into the lower Stratosphere. At the time I predicted approx 20-25th Oct. Forecast now shows the first week of November for the temp increase of wave 1. I don't expect any significant impact to PV,other than slight displacement.

More of an interest in the effects from such a strong energy source point. with such a strong event, I'd be disappointed not to see an influential response in the Strat ( Dependant on tilt of PV)

Error, duplicate post added to thread above. Forecasted MJO shows possibilities of Rossby wave formation. If forecast is correct then possible Stratospheric warming at 10 hPa around 20th-25th October. Influential process to watch out for.

Very early days, but in shortest of answers, it's a yes. It would have to remain constant. It means that for a reversal of wind speed (below 0 m/s) it doesn't have far to go and the Polar Vortex is in a state of structural weakness. Here is the BUT part, there has to be either atmospheric energy transfer via waves into Stratosphere to allow creation of SSW ( Which is required to be successful) or Trop lead via coupling. Both of which then need the response of HP placement to Greenland/Scandinavia etc.

Ryan Maue is my source of knowledge on this question. At -70 cold air convection enables hurricanes to evolve towards Cat 4. Current QBO state raises Tropospheric heights and provides opportunity to reach the colder convection I.e Maria Maue states that this is the base requirements for Pacific Super Typhoons. -70 C, followed by crucial 3-4 hours of eye temp increases to produce environment for CAT 5,5+. * This next section is my thoughts on the similarities in physical development of powerful Hurricanes to strong Polar Vortices. The colder the convection the stronger the PV. The more electromagnetism from solar output the most increased heights for PV to reach and the colder the convection. The shringage caused by less solar electromagnetism during hibernation then the weaker the PV. Less rigid, more flabby and therefore more susceptible to break down.

Chionomanic has already answered, here are some images for better visualisation.

There is no doubts this time round regarding upcoming SSW and we see this when comparing both. Feb 1st 2017. 24th Feb 2017. At the very least a reversal of 10 m/s at 60N. It has been a prolific winter season for Strat events and models forecast another at 384 hours. Comparisons to the 2015/16 season, we have been above the temperature mean repeatedly and with this event and the next. 80% of the entire season will be above the mean. Analysis of this season dry La Niña, WQBO and hampering/destruction of ozone from solar particles (protons) would be a simplistic observation of this winter season.

The model fatigue rest bite is coming to a close. Are we all ready to go again? The upcoming SSW leads to the tropospheric PV to lose it's conformity. The GFS is beginning to display possible outcomes. I believe Trop PV lobes will break off from the main body. As to where they locate, it is too early to say. Most intriguing is how the Synoptics evolve in conjunction with rarely seen MJO phase. AO to return to negative. In terms of the farming community March the 1st would be an important time to monitor forecasts.

Yes I can definitely agree with that. The next window of opportunity evolves in 12 days time. Approximately 25th Feb. ECMWF and GFS forecasts coupling between Strat and Trop. Warming event displaces Strat PV off default position and the models shows Trop PV following suit in vacating Greenland. There can be no heights here unless Trop PV displaces and allows WAA to have a route upwards. Result could be similar to 2013 event, only it will be 3 weeks earlier in evolution. 55% probability of success.

Agreed. We had to wait for the -AO to dissipate and allow the Trop PV to migrate away from E Canada/ Greenland The Scandinavian HP holds throughout this process and emerges resilient. The Azores has another route option. Greenland.

Where do I start, in its simplest form "The Pacific is king". I'm UK centric in all my thoughts. So I trace upstream patterns following each meterlogical/climate process along the way at each relay point to locate the source of UK weather pattern/influences. Note EPO-HP North Pacific classic La Niña pattern. Create warm Eastern US with amplification which leads to MLB for UK hence the pleasant calm overall winter. So in many ways the Pacific is earth's thermostat. Absorbs solar radiation over hundreds of years during active phases. Thermodynamic processes occur between ocean and atmosphere in the form of ENSO phases.Look at PDO reaction during solar hibernation periods.

I bow down to Glacial Point's expertise in these matters. This winter the EPO has dictated the pattern with the Trop and Strat decoupling. This SSW forecasted could sync them was again. If we go back to 2013 We had a sustained event occurring 14 days+ prior to 2017. WQBO 2013/17 have near equal indexes https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data PV reformed and NAO remained positive for approx 40 days then came a sustained period of -NAO. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Different factors this year could lead to extensive cold spell from mid Feb. Or an extremely cold Spring aka 2013. That change resulted from SSW and only when HP returned to North Pacific. I need to see what way SSW effects PV and if more attacks continue after this event to access if 3 weeks or 6 week response.