Stu_London

ok happy days I thought maybe my south of M4 rants were getting a bit whingy happy to clear that up

If referring to me you have misinterpreted the spirit of my musings. I don't suffer an angst over weather, unless it affects my ability to carry my daily business, then it becomes annoying. Im a severe weather enthusiast who has long since excepted that the weather will do what it will do. Any edginess in the posts is humour or irony

Thanks Mike for a very concise explanation. So that is positive - but does it still have the same weakness as the existing GFS - there is a very specific route to what would be a monumental cold spell (probably not that welcome to the country as a whole right now). It just looked way too clean for me - not many disruptive features like shortwaves - our weather tends to messier than that

i think it did quite well with storm bella - but there was excellent model consensus around that storm to day 10 if I recall Griff will know - he's the para man

best outcome i agree - but best performance? I know if doesn't fare that well in the verification stats, however there is more to models than verification. Has it got any big wins on its card where its nailed something ahead of all the other models in the mid range.

no breakdown to worry about on the para and wouldn't be for some time post +384 but is it any good at making weather predictions

That looks like a day after tomorrow type set up

That easterly on the para doesnt look like it going anywhere until about April Does the para have known form at all?

was all a bit tongue in cheek - would take the para over all the latest operational runs available

i would agree could go long into March also

For north of the M4, the para is Kleenex run (thats one up from a Carlsberg run)

Yay - I claim my £5 for the first winter is over post

You have to laugh - Para delivers one of the most best ever runs in modelling history for those north of the M4

rain in the west country - sleet in Tunbridge Wells (again) - the interaction may give traction to pull those frigid uppers closer, but probably not as it is the stuff of model dreams and may not even be possible

The para is probably the best of the main operationals - lots have surface cold, so if you can get the snow in - it should stick for a while and make the surface even colder. ECM is the main concern

A bit like backing a horse that then drifts in the market before the race - would anger a punter two fold as it means he could have won more money and infers the horse is perhaps fit for the knackers yard. But it could still win!

Do we think the phasing of that low from the atlantic deliver an all snow event, or will it introduce marginality (should it happen)

Im not convinced Tunbridge Wells does all that well out of it. PPN a bit far north - and some dodgy uppers introducing marginality - if it can marginal anywhere, its Tunbridge Wells. though i would take the para over the op every time

M-O-O-N that spells Moon Looks like the GFS 18 operational has removed the 12 Z blizzard - its still there but over the channel and France on the 18Z The GFS 18z para is quite snowy however with a better easterly and more convective fun All of the models are moving towards a cold spell, lots to be resolved on timing etc, however a significant part of it will be surface cold which is not conductive to snow. So, we need to get the snow early if we can - there will be a good chance it will hang around if we can get some.

High a bit too far north for my IMBY liking, but very good - I think it has been quite consistent also

The parallel has been quite consistent with the evolution. The Para is a bit like signing a striker of OPTA stats - you wont know if hes any good till on the pitch.

Hi Ed, I'm good - self-isolating at the moment - but I think I have managed to avoid - hope you are good too. Agree - I said FI was 72hrs in an earlier post and I might have been being generous. until these 3 battleground scerarios are resolved - it could change as they all impact whats coming down the line Good overall pattern though

good summary would add surface cold from whenever the cold arrives for the forseeable

12z got the PPN far enough north 18z didnt I thought it was perhaps a bit early for southerly corrections but hey ho - French nick our snow again

Fairly cold at the surface, but not quite as cold as a good few inches snow cover which would inevitable drag cold inverted air to the surface, which was on the menu 12Z