Stu_London

These are still in FI - as we know verification of FI charts is poor.

well, its a bit nearer than a week - more like 4 days now - although that still doesn't guarantee anything in a highly complex set up.

Agree - when it is nailed on it is nailed on. Whilst there are risks (however small) that threaten expectation, only right that they should be highlighted.

I think the posts by Kold and myself can be seen as risk assessment, which has nothing to with gambling. The only form of risk management involved in this particular exercise is the management of expectation (There is no option to share, offset, insure against or avoid the risk as the weather will do what it wants, ultimately). If you view the posts as such, rather than an attempt to urinate on anyone's fireworks, then the you'll find the posts more helpful, I think.

It's not stupid, it just comes with a caveat of a higher level of uncertainty.

To be fair - I think the ECM is mixing air sourced from the Iberian Low, which wouldn't be necessarily cold and dry. However as you say - it's not certain to happen - hence why more runs are needed to resolve. 2018 beast broke down for the south in this manner.

Yes I noticed there was a bit more mixing of milder uppers on the ECM run - the hope has to be that this slightly trending away from this and historically things tend to end up a bit further south, but still a concern at this stage. One would hope that this will be resolved one or the other by tomorrow evenings output.

Latest GFS has the whole region under cold air by early Sunday. Its quite keen for the atlantic to mow in quite quickly, by midweek, however we get a solid 3-4 day cold snap and there should be some snow for most, either blowing in from the east, or via the breakdown. Some of the other models aren't as keen on a breakdown occurring quite as quickly, so worth keeping an eye on as we may well get a more substantive cold spell if the GFS is overdoing the mobility (wouldn't be the first time).

Still very much in the game for our region after todays runs. I think there still a chance that it could go wrong, a la 12z GFS, but the 18z ensembles seem to suggest that threat is diminishing. If tomorrows models continue in the same vein, then I think it would take something extraordinary (but not completely unprecedented) for us not to get at least a 4 or 5 day cold spell with the chance of some snow. Then it will become a case of looking at the hi res models for PPN distribution. Here's hoping that tomorrows models continue to move towards locking this in. Looks like the Beeb and Met office are on board which is good as they will sit on the fence for as long as possible.

Probably still scope for model drama with tomorrows runs, although more likely to be regional issues, the south and south east still looking like the area most flakey. If we get to this time tomorrow with similar runs then a reasonable cold spell would look locked in from the weekend.

Yes - indeed - keep the BOOMs in the locker until at least Wednesday, possibly Thursday. Still a chance things could go the way of the 06z GFS or similarly poorly

and that's just to Monday - more coming down the line after with easterly severe gales and -12C uppers

very zonal chart posted - were the earth spinning in the opposite direction

I'll hold back on the BOOMs until we are +72 and more importantly, the NAVGEM is on board.

ECM snow depth charts will be a laugh tonight. They are super-rampy in normal times.

some cross model consensus but I still fear this saga has a few twists yet

If they are still the same on Wednesday - then its BOOM time

5 days into the cold snap and no easy route back to mild

More like 30cm on the 12z for your location - and severe gales to boot But 120hrs is like a life time in modelling terms right now

Right back in the game on the 12zs - GFS and UKMO going for a pretty extraordinary event for our region from Sunday.

I think after what the 06z served up I would tend to agree. South east should do ok with an easterly in any event

The frontal boundary doesn't look like affecting the south east this time - less risk - but less reward

I thought it might be different datapoints as opposed to any significantly inferior data. Comparing daily runs (0z, to 0z next day), rather than inter-day runs (0z to 06z) is not a bad idea for longer term trends.

by trend continuing I would expect those models to start to move towards that sort of solution anyway. ECM has only been only been on board one run and has been flip-flopping like a fish out of water, so yet another change would not be the greatest surprise.

Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least