Stu_London

Good idea - we can email snow to those that miss out

I think whoever knocked this together has obviously spent some time in Tunbridge Wells to experience the so called snow events from January.

Unlucky - are there less trains now in response to fewer commuters.

no one using the trains any more - so I suspect it will be a non-story this time

When do we think whatever falls out of the sky will be largely settling snow based on the latest models? I would plump for something between midnight Saturday and 3am Sunday - perhaps a little earlier for the north of the region.

Looks like a solid 5 day event from midnight on Saturday (which is +48 hours now - surely it can't go wrong from here). Snow distribution to be resolved. GFS 18z in FI has several dry days with sunshine and temps of 13C-15C - probably would scrape a 16 or 17C in favoured spots given the set up. That would be my second choice as the days get longer into the second half of Feb

ok - model dramas for this afternoon over. I'd still back snow for all as about an 80-90% chance.

I've heard labradoodles don't like snow all that much

Do it anyway - just say you are going McDonalds or something - loads of others at it.

The GFS being at the top of the envelope for marginality against the other models is reason for cheer. Although confirmations from the other 12zs would be reassuring. Goes to show that while the Macro pattern for the next 5 or so days looks pretty solid. FI for the micro-pattern is pretty much +0.

Not great uppers for Kent though - hopefully it just the GFS being the GFS

if you stay indoors, you'll be fine

surely 2004 was the daddy for thundersnow - a near nationwide event as the squall front pushed south across the whole of the uk. Not a remarkable snow event in itself as was rain to snow - but a unique weather event in my memory.

I think Prosecco is the rubbish fizzy wine of the current era

what is remarkable is the range of solutions GFS has between 60-72 hours. I suspect we will fall the right side of marginal, but FI has been reeled into to almost +24-48h

There's a couple in there where we might get away with lower dewpoints off the continent and the short sea track. There are also a couple of absolute shockers that wouldn't even deliver the usual sleet-fest. For balance, there are a few members that go a little colder than the op - with everything further south.

Could be a bit more Paul - the beeb are dragging the continuous band of heavy snow, further and further south with each run - yesterday it was EA and Midlands and today it covers most of our region.

I think it's inevitable that there will be some disruption. However it doesn't usually stay very cold for too long, so hopefully won't completely derail the program

I'd recommend guns also - possibly complete breakdown of civilisation from Sunday.

For anyone that didn't see the 18z Para from Saturday (I think) - it was showing brutal uppers of between -12C and minus -18 piling into the uk throughout the run from this weekend right up to +384h and would gone on for sometime thereafter, if anything getting progressively colder. There were a few days in the south where milder air won out for a time, but by the end of the run, the whole of the UK was back in the freezer. Nothing in the current modelling to suggest anything like that will happen, but the trend seems to be in that direction.

Those north east ensembles are not far off the GFS para was showing a few evenings ago - perhaps it was onto something. In the meantime, it does look like we will be in for a classic modelling case of the breakdown being shunted back continuously. If I had to guess, I would say most of the UK will now get a minimum of a full week solid cold spell, with the potential for more. Only concern is for the far south and south west as more marginal conditions are never that far away.

More positive runs today. The 18z seems to be an improvement on mixing in the higher uppers as the low clears a bit cleaner, which should help keep us cold. The low clearing also seems to be dragging the ppn south - BBC graphics had an EA and midlands event earlier, but is now trending more to the southeast. The worry is that it trends into the channel and northern France, however we are only 72-96 hours from it now, so hopefully no more dramatic deviation. Doesn't look like an epic long lasting spell however its interesting that the GFS has delayed the breakdown from Wednesday to Thursday in the space of a couple of runs. If that pattern continues, we might squeeze laying snow out until next weekend. In any event, the last thing we need in the country is a highly disruptive long lasting severe winter outbreak, so putting aside whatever selfish preferences we have, a short lived boom, might be best for all in the long run.

If that trend continues, then hopefully the mixing of the slightly less cold uppers, might get pushed into N.France also

Can't worry about any breakdown yet - a solid cold spell of 5 days (more for northern parts) is not be sniffed at.

A nice covering would be good to look at for a short while - if GFS verifies and its all gone by Thursday - I could live with that. When it hangs around and just turns into ice - it's not as pleasant.