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Stu_London

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Everything posted by Stu_London

  1. Stu_London
    The op also exits the cold upper earlier than the mean
  2. Stu_London
    Uppers are eroded quite quickly on this run but like some of the best easterlies have been at the second bite. 2018 was to a degree.
  3. Stu_London
    @kold weather I think you dry cold run with HP nearer the uk has arrived
  4. Stu_London
    French PPN about 100 miles south on this run - difference between moderate snow in a force 7-8 for most of the south and nothing except for it brushing the coast
  5. Stu_London
    A little delayed from the 12z but good
  6. Stu_London
    the cold spell itself was less than a week - my snow gone in a couple of days - but i did live in Devon. In 1991 is stayed very cold at the surface with a dry inversion
  7. Stu_London
    Darren i think nearly all the ensembles kill the easterly relatively quickly in terms of uppers. A lot stay cold at the surface. 1963 and 1991 didnt have uppers to write home about after the initial bite from the beast
  8. Stu_London
    I think modelling is giving us about a 70/30 chance of a decent easterly. With the 70 - some are not nationwide and not very many have lots of longevity - uppers anyway 30 - so high because its ECM
  9. Stu_London
    Didnt the ICON used to be the DWD - that wasnt all that
  10. Stu_London
    On that basis it must be faulty data - I dont think these records get smashed by 10-15 mb at a time
  11. Stu_London
    GFS 12z op is the goldilocks run for the south east - 36 hours of moderate snow from next Sunday morning in a near gale.
  12. Stu_London
    I think that would smash the doors off the records for Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark in terms of millibars On that basis, very unlikely to verify - or might even be an error EDIT - would smash the UK record too
  13. Stu_London
    Its 1045 over scandi We've had over 1050 before.
  14. Stu_London
    all good - uppers supportive of severe weather for a good 6-7 day period. very cold at the surface unless there is a dramatic breakdown from the west or south for a few days after that. Uppers were no great shakes for the second half of the Feb 1991 spell - but is was darn cold on the snow covered ground
  15. Stu_London
    LOL even the insane GEM has it slightly marginal in my locale next Saturday - sleet again!
  16. Stu_London
    GFS ensembles have mean uppers down to -8 to -9, 7th Feb. Not many runs extend the cold very long, although some at the surface will stay very cold. The op for example had a couple of ice days while the 0C 850 isotherm was over us
  17. Stu_London
    Easterlies often get delayed in modelling so the ECM might be on to something. Can't delay too long at the this time of year though - the sun gaining in strength every day and all that
  18. Stu_London
    Not the best - but if you are looking for trends in one model - it is a positive step forward from this morning. The fact that is it flip flopping indicates to me that it is struggling
  19. Stu_London
    of rain for the south LOL
  20. Stu_London
    I'd say ECM is going pear shaped at 120 to be honest - not enough northern heights - it might be right and the others wrong - probably not a huge amount of data from that area.
  21. Stu_London
    Fact is - they are probably all wrong as early as 144 - this amount of model dischord is placing FI at around 48-72 hours at the moment.
  22. Stu_London
    Verification stats not withstanding, I don't think the ECM has performed all that well at 8,9 10 this winter. Too much flip flopping and not picking trends as well as other models.
  23. Stu_London
    No but when they show differing outcomes, one tends to move towards the other solution. or they meet somewhere in the middle, or somewhere else
  24. Stu_London
    Dont mind any of them GEM best , ECM least good
  25. Stu_London
    ECM not really on board. Not a complete bust, but a day or so later - leaving more time to go wrong. Better than this morning run though
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