Spikecollie

And Saturday - still loads of instability and ML CAPE. I'm looking forward to a great cloudspotting trip back to the UK late Saturday afternoon! Me thinks I have storms to enjoy before that though...

It's all evolving quite slowly over here in France. Alertes oranges were put out yesterday for Aude and Herault (south) and although there has been some incredible rain in Herault and also Gard, Aude has not yet been touched. The warning has been extended until tomorrow morning as things are moving more slowly than the forecasters expected. It's the lack of storm movement that is worrying people - I have had night and day long storms down there when conditions have favoured. All regions will get storms here - nothing exceptional in the main (for France), but some strong thunderstorms will be in there. Although I have experienced these many times, I never take them for granted and enjoy every moment. The instability is substantial and I think the UK will see some of this - the ML CAPE values are indeed very promising as folks have pointed out - whatever happens let's all stay safe and enjoy...

I'm baking here in Dijon. 28c today and that makes for an uncomfortable 8 hours of teaching in classroom with no aircon! It's 22c still now and there's no air movement at all and it feels more and more humid. I think Thursday, Friday and Saturday will see storms here - I'm probably heading back on Saturday so camera at the ready for those CuNbs, but I'd like some elevated night storms to try some photos - Thursday and Friday look excellent for those!

The plume will deliver but I may need to send you photos...!

Arrived this evening in Paris. Some very bouncy thermal turbulence (I was fast asleep until Spanish man started squealing and grabbed my hand!) It's too hot to sleep here in Dijon...

As I said in the convective thread, this seems to be a very similar setup to September 2006 when warm thundery weather came up from France. I've been watching this all week on the French weather sites and they have been getting more and more committed to it. I think come about Wednesday the alerts will start to be issued over there. They are very clear on the warm, unstable air coming up from the Iberian peninsula. Temperatures progged over there up to 30c. I'll be your roving reporter!

I've just checked and it was September 14 2006 when we had the Leeds tornado! My friend and I were running a training event in a marquee and it got really scary...then there were more at the end of the month in both countries because we ran the same event in northern France and were delayed for hours coming back to the UK - similar temperatures and setup I think in northern France next week as back then...Dijon and Paris in the thunderstorms again for me!

I know it's early days, but there are some interesting CAPE and LI values being predicted for next week:

I think I said earlier in the week that several French forecasting sites have been hinting at the thundery breakdown. They're pretty committed to it now just about country wide from Wednesday onward, so it looks like I'll have yet another "son et lumière"...

Indeed. I'm off to France on Monday and notice that Météo France and progging t-storms more or less countrywide from mid-week. Not surprising when it's getting to 27c. September can exceed all expectations!

Looks like an interesting night ahead for us here in Limousin. Alerte orange from Météo France for thunderstorms, flooding and up to 100km/h wind gusts. We've actually had a lovely weekend and week so far, there have been some thundery showers but we have been out in our shorts every day, and even got some lake swimming in...

Incredible here...I've seen a lot of storms, but these are awesome! Lights going on and off, no meal cooked yet!

Just seen that I am under an Estofex level 2! We had a few introductory rumbles and some heavy rain earlier, but it's now hot and sunny but quite windy, and there are some great clouds developing. Activity is progged to go on all evening and most of the night, so this could be fun...

Some great t-storm prospects for here in Limousin tomorrow, will keep you posted! Hatten the batches if needed in the UK and stay safe if ex-TS Bertha hits...

We had a 90 minute thunderstorm here in Limousin this morning which started at about 0900. Daytime darkness, and the storm seemed very elevated and was very slow moving. The pre-storm clouds were amazing. Magic!

Looking good here in Limousin for this afternoon after yesterday evenings CuNbs flopped as soon as they got here. We got one enormous rumble of thunder and that was that, but they loped off over Creuse so there was some nice distant lightning. The UK looks soggy and unpleasant...!

Hope you enjoyed your stay - I think you'll be missing some real thunderstorm potential over here...ah well!

I'm here in Limousin where it's currently 27c. Some nice storms on the menu from Friday - woohoo! We've already had too humdingers, one on Monday morning in Northern France which meant we stayed in our tent for an extra two hours because it was too wet with too much lightning to come out, and another on Monday evening when we arrived at the house - fortunately after we had unloaded the car - the rain was biblical and some great CGs. For now it's about enjoying the warmth, sorting the garden and some nice eats and drinks...

We got a nice one this afternoon, no visible lightning but lots of thunder and heavy rain. We stayed out the whole time doing the garden...lovely!

We had a few flashes and rumbles in the early hours of this morning. Just continuous moderate rain right now, but very humid. I went out this morning to watch and the rain was so warm. I have a very wet dressing gown! It was almost bright so not as spectacular as a dark night time storm and it wasn't directly overhead, but nice to see nonetheless.

It's weird up here in Yorkshire. It's trying to clear all the time but not managing it, and the hills are shrouded in thick mist. I'm wondering whether we have had enough heating to support anything in the way of t-storms. It's only 19c, but I guess the instability will do its job.

Hang in there William, the Rennes METAR is progging you some nice t-storms this evening and right the way through the night - the best time for them. Enjoy what you get and have a great holiday. And by the way, welcome to French humidité - it's a whole new concept in warm!!!

We've just had some torrential showers here (already!) no electrical activity, but windscreen wipers on full and some lovely towering clouds...looking forward to the weekend if we get what could come, for once this year I can just stay at home and enjoy it...

It was an amazing cloudscape coming back yesterday from Paris. TCU all over the place from the south Midlands northward. I was a generous bunny and gave a young couple the chance to sit together and ended up with an aisle seat, but I could still see out nicely and it was very sculptural...

One heavy shower with a rumble here today after just after lunch in our meeting. Overcast, warm and quite humid now, so I'll go for a leisurely walk after I've recuperated from what was a very productive but demanding day. I surprised myself on the language front and managed very well, and the teaching team were very nice and very supportive, but it was hard work. A nice glass of wine, sitting outside, has been earned! Météo France are progging some thundery showers for tomorrow in Northern France so I'll have my re-batteried camera at the ready if there's anything interesting up above...